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GOLD – Short Term Risk Remains Down but Close to a Major Low - David Brady (23/05/2019)

GOLD – Short Term Risk Remains Down but Close to a Major Low - David Brady (23/05/2019)
By David Brady, CFA 10 months ago 11249 Views No comments

May 23, 2019


  • Another crash in stocks followed by a Fed reversal to rate cuts and QE will likely signal the peak and fall in the dollar and the bottom in Gold (and Silver).
  • As long as we remain above 1167 in Gold, I am only looking up.
  • The risk / reward at the current levels in Gold (and Silver) is heavily skewed to the upside.
  • We are heading down to a major low from which we will see a massive rally to new highs in Gold above $1400.

As shared last week, the “ideal” scenarios for the bottom in Gold are as follows:

  • Daily RSI down to ~30 or below
  • Daily MACD Line down to August levels around -15
  • Spot DSI in the teens or lower
  • 21-day moving average DSI in the twenties, maintaining the overall uptrend
  • Funds are short, Banks are long


The daily trend clearly remains down for now with lower and lower highs. A break of 1304 followed by a higher low above 1266 would be the minimum requirements for a change in trend to the upside.


Ideally, would like to see spot DSI in the teens or single digits and the 21D MA DSI down to low 20s (maintaining the trend of higher lows) for the bottom to be in.

  • Spot: Hit new low of 21 on Wednesday.
  • 21D MA: Peaked at 74 on Feb 27, then again at 68.5 on April 10 (lower high), and is now down to 35.6.



Would like to see MACD Line closer to Aug’18 lows before the bottom is reached, circa -15.

Supports at 1267, 1258 and 1248. Resistance at 1290.

Banks may try to take out stops at 200-day and 200-week MAs and we fall to ~1225 before the bottom is in.

Massive cluster of Fibonacci support from 1200-1223.

Failed breakout of its bull flag was extremely bearish, supporting the case for lower lows.


Bounce back up to downtrend line at ~1290 possible.

Overall, still see lower in both the RSI (50) and MACD Line once any bounce is completed.


Given the recent inverse relationship with the S&P, expect continuation of the downside in Gold until the S&P peaks and falls below 2785. Bearish sentiment in equities has increased significantly recently which does not bode well for an immediate drop.


Funds went from -34k short to +50k long in the past 3 weeks. The 6th fastest gain ever on a 3-week basis.

Commercials went from -57k to -137k short in the past 3 weeks. One of fastest paces ever on a 3-week basis.

It’s clear that the Banks have been setting up to squeeze out weak longs here. Given the small changes in open interest since the last COT report and the increase in the short positions, this suggests Gold has further to go on the downside yet.


Gold is still setting up for a major low. The balance of data suggests we still have lower to go but this is solely to BTFD for the rally to follow. The key support / target levels are as follows:

  • 1266 – Double bottom
  • 1258 - 200-day moving average.
  • 1248 – 200-week moving average
  • 1247 – 61.8% Fib of 1184-1348 on a ‘closing’ basis
  • 1237 – 61.8% Fib of 1167-1350 on an ‘intraday’ basis
  • 1223 – 76.4% Fib on a closing basis
  • 1210 – 76.4% Fib on an intraday basis
  • 1208 – 85.4% Fib closing
  • 1194 – 85.4% Fib intraday

I am looking for 1400+ next before Gold hits its next major peak. Only a break of 1167 “AND” a close below 1184 negate this forecast.

Enjoy reading this article? Interested in precious metals? Sign up to the Sprott Money Newsletter to get updates from Eric Sprott, David Brady, Craig Hemke and more.

David Brady has managed money for over 25 years for major international banks and corporate multinationals both in Europe and the US, with experience in Bonds, Equities, Foreign Exchange, and Commodities

In 2016, he created GlobalProTraders.com, an interactive online community for traders to share their views on financial markets.

The views and opinions expressed in this material are those of the author as of the publication date, are subject to change and may not necessarily reflect the opinions of Sprott Money Ltd. Sprott Money does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness and reliability of the information or any results from its use.You may copy, link to or quote from the above for your use only, provided that proper attribution to the source and author is given and you do not modify the content. Click Here to read our Article Syndication Policy.

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