The Big Short, Part Two - Dave Kranzler (21/3/2017)

March 21, 2017

Ron Paul was on Fox Business last week explaining that stocks and bonds are in a big bubble. He said that, “you need to short this market.” As is my modus operandi, I had the volume muted so I didn’t get hear the Fox hosts’ exasperation. Interestingly, it was reported last week that the short interest in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) hit an all-time low on March 7th. This is a fantastic contrarian indicator. It also removes the general “short-squeeze” risk from the risk of shorting the market.

Perhaps more curious than Ron Paul’s comments was the warning about the stock market issued by Robert Shiller, who is typically a Wall Street apologist, in an interview on Bloomberg this past Tuesday: “The market is way over-priced,’’ he says. “It’s not as intellectual as people would think, or as economists would have you believe.” Shiller is noted for his warnings about the tech bubble in 1999 and the mid-2000’s housing bubble before it collapsed.

Extreme levels in consumer confidence, investor sentiment, valuations and a steep incline in stock prices have historically marked market peaks. A week ago Investor’s Intelligence bullish sentiment among investment advisors hit its highest level in 30 years. That previous peak corresponded to the market peak in 1987 (the 1987 stock crash was the steepest in history). Consumer confidence hit a 16-year high. The prior peak in consumer confidence occurred right before the tech bubble crashed in 2000.

As detailed in recent Short Seller Journals, the retail mom & pop investor has been piling into the market since the beginning of the year. When the realization that Trump’s campaign promises will never become reality and the “music stops” in the stop market, there will be a broad base of retail stock geniuses looking for seats that don’t exist.

The stock market is perhaps the most disconnected from the underlying fundamental systemic reality than at any time in history. This is true if we were to evaluate the total amount of debt as a percentage of GDP, which is about 345%. At the beginning of 2000, it was about 270%. If we were to adjust the current level of GAAP earnings for the S&P 500 using the GAAP standards applied in 2000, it’s likely that current p/e ratio for the SPX would be at least as high as it was in 2000. And recently it was revealed that retail traffic at malls across the country has fallen off a cliff (15% in February and another 13% so far in March). Used car prices are plunging, which reflects both an oversupply of used cars and a big fall-off in demand. This will quickly spill over into the new car market, which faces a record level of dealer inventory. And bank loan creation has begun to rip in reverse:

Bank loan creation is a product of both demand and supply. A drop of the magnitude shown above occurs because borrowers have stopped forming new businesses or expanding current businesses (except for real estate developers, who will borrow relentlessly until the banks cut them off) and banks have determined that, in the current economic environment, the risk of losing money from lending to businesses and consumers exceeds the potential return (real estate developers are finally getting cut off).

In short, based on the above fundamental data the economy for the most part has fallen off a cliff.

Extreme levels in consumer confidence, investor sentiment, valuations and a steep incline in stock prices have historically marked market peaks. A week ago Investor’s Intelligence bullish sentiment among investment advisors hit its highest level in 30 years. That previous peak corresponded to the market peak in 1987 (the 1987 stock crash was the steepest in history). Consumer confidence hit a 16-year high. The prior peak in consumer confidence occurred right before the tech bubble crashed in 2000.

Most of the above commentary is excerpted from the latest issue (released Sunday) of IRD’s Short Seller’s Journal. The primary short idea presented is down 4.7% from last Friday’s close. I just closed out a put position from an idea I presented (including the put otion I would be buying) two weeks ago for an easy 30% gain. If you are interested in learning how to make money shorting the most overvalued market in history, click here: Short Seller’s Journal subscription.

I have a feeling, in a few years people are going to be doing what they always do when the economy tanks. They will be blaming immigrants and poor people. – from “The Big Short”

Dave Kranzler spent many years working in various Wall Street jobs. After business school, he traded junk bonds for a large bank. He has an MBA from the University of Chicago, with a concentration in accounting and finance, and graduated Oberlin College with majors in Economics and English. Dave has nearly thirty years of experience in studying, researching, analyzing and investing in the financial markets. Currently he co-manages a precious metals and mining stock investment fund in Denver and publishes the Mining Stock and Short Seller Journals. Contact Dave at dkranzler62@gmail.com.

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