Craig Hemke (00:00)
Hello again from SprottMoney, SprottMoney.com. We've reached the month of November, 2025 is getting ready to wrap up, but we are now ready to look ahead to November. These are your precious metals projections. I'm Craig Hempke and joining me as usual is Chris Vermeulen of the TechnicalTraders.com. Chris, good to see you.
Chris Vermeulen (00:21)
Always a pleasure, Craig.
Craig Hemke (00:23)
We are getting toward that holiday season. Give the gift that keeps on giving the whole year, Clark. Precious medal for your family and friends. You can find all kinds of great deals, of course, at SprottMoney.com. And you can call them any time you'd like. If you want to speak to a person too, 888-861-0775. There's the homepage right there, brother. ⁓ Again, always great deals at SprottMoney.com. And you want to thank them all this content. It's early in the month. Got a lot of content to come in November and December too. But before we get started, Chris, we're look back at October because here we are. We're recording this on November the 4th and we recorded, think, on October the 5th, basically a month ago. ⁓ You had some very insightful things to say and we saw almost exactly happen what you said was going to happen and now prices have
Chris Vermeulen (01:08)
Mm-hmm.
Craig Hemke (01:19)
Fully round trip basically back to where they were when we recorded a month ago. So the question on my mind and probably everybody else is, okay, so what happens next? Let's start with gold. You had targeted 4,100 in gold and said, man, if it shoots past that by there, it might go parabolic for a bit. And that's exactly what happened, peaking up at 4,400 before reversing. And now we're back here under 4,000. Let's start there. What do you think?
Chris Vermeulen (01:24)
Yeah, well, if we take a look at the chart of gold, let me just pull that up. We've got that kind parabolic move. So if we zoom back on the chart, you and I had talked about a while ago back over here saying, when gold actually breaks and closes above this giant bull flag pattern, we should see a very strong move to the upside. And if we just kind of go back in time, we had this target from this previous bull flag pattern up to this high and right across over to this level right over here. So based on this rally and pullback, and we ended up seeing gold have that big move and ended up hitting that target, having a little bit of a hiccup. What's interesting is we've definitely seen kind of a bit of a frothy kind of short-term blow off phase. We hit the target, it had a quick pullback, and then we kind of really saw volume pick up and everyone piled into the precious metal space, creating a little bit of a feeding frenzy, a little bit like...throwing like chum into the water with piranhas. If you weren't long gold for these more or less six trading days, you were freaking out. You had the most painful FOMO. I've got tools that show us FOMO in the markets. Not only that, but I have my emails and all of that stuff that come in. And the amount of FOMO, you could cut the air with a knife. How if people weren't long gold, they felt like they had to get in. And of course, once we get into this little feeding frenzy, usually you have a pretty sharp pullback. I like to think like if there's emotions going into the market, when it turns around, there's going to be emotions coming out and you get these very sharp violent pullbacks. Now, mind you, I believe this is just a pullback before gold goes a whole lot higher. And this carries across pretty much gold, silver, platinum, platinum and miners. You know, the big question right now, Craig, is like, where is gold going to put in this bottom? Is it going to pull back a little bit more and try and scare people out or is it going to?
Craig Hemke (03:38)
Mm-hmm.
Chris Vermeulen (03:43)
Head higher and using the Fibonacci extension tool, which I think is one of the most accurate tools for projecting rallies and pullbacks. can gauge where gold should go based on this rally, this pullback, and then where it should go to the upside. So when we look at these levels, you can see that the upside targets around 4680 as the first target. And then from there goes about 5152 hundred.
Craig Hemke (03:56)
Yeah.
Chris Vermeulen (04:09)
And I think it could be very, very explosive to the upside. And we were to look back at 2007, there's some scenarios showing that we could see this happen very quickly. I think much like the 80s kind of bubble, I think we could see, when you go to the monthly chart, we're only a month or two away from hitting 51, 5200. I think it could happen very quickly. But what's interesting right now is, you know, we had hit a target right here and closed out a short term trade. We just played this move in gold. Everybody wanted back in and a lot of people got back into gold here, even though I was saying, you know, this is like wait for a pause or pull back. And now I actually like gold and nobody wants to get into it. They're like, no, it's top is pulling back. So it just goes to show like when emotions are very, very predictable and the fact that people don't want to get into gold right now, they're like, well, no, I think it's topped. It's top.
Craig Hemke (04:50)
You're right.
Chris Vermeulen (05:03)
usually means it's going to put a bottom in and the gold miners and the silver miners are actually breaking down. They're actually moving lower and that's actually giving us really confirmation of the sentiment. Investors tend to go, well, we can pull up GDXJ for example, down almost 5 % today. It's breaking down and that's simply because the market moves fast. It's a fairly small market.
Craig Hemke (05:19)
Mm.
Chris Vermeulen (05:27)
And investors are scared. And so it's creating this trickle, this steady stream every day, a few more people who got in late to the game somewhere up here are panicking and moving out. And I think we're going to see a standout low for ⁓ gold and silver miners over the next week or so. think it's going to flush down and I think it's going to have a very sharp big rebound and move higher. So right now it's just letting the fear work out. Like people don't want to...
Believe it or not, people are scared of the precious metal space right now, hence everything is selling off. But I think it's just a little bit of an emotional move over exaggeration. And once it stabilizes and starts to go higher, everybody will flip like click of a switch, flip of a switch and everybody will pile right back in and it'll go parabolic to like 5200 an ounce.
Craig Hemke (06:15)
Yeah. I mean, is the emotion part of it that, know, the crowd, the herd mentality of this stuff is remarkable to behold. Can you back up to your gold chart for a second? Because you're always talking about the Fibonacci levels and retracement and the like. they're, I mean, it's terrific. You've had some, you if it goes through the 61.8, it's going the full way. you, I mean, you just absolutely hit them out of the park so many times. ⁓ This pattern has been consistent for the last two years of about a 20 % rally and about a 10 % pullback consolidation. ⁓ If the pattern continues, right, and we're in a consolidation phase, can you use the Fibonacci levels to say, okay, here's where I would be a dip buyer. Maybe that's part of your enthusiasm for the dip right where we are.
Chris Vermeulen (07:08)
Yeah, that's a good question. So taking the same bull flag low that we counted for the rally, we can drag it to the top. this is instead of a Fibonacci extension, which gives us projected targets forward or higher. This is a Fibonacci retracement, meaning once we know the height of the rally, we can figure out where price could retrace pull back to. And the sweet spot is the 31, the 38 % retracement down to the 50%. So giving back 38 to half of the move. And so we've come down, we tagged that first one, we put a bit of a bounce and it's very, very possible that gold moves down into this reversal zone. So I like gold here. I definitely like it even more when it pulls down into this area. I think if it does come down towards this 50 % mark, it's going to really spook a lot of people out. think people are holding on to dear life, hoping it's not going to break this low from really just a few days ago.
If it does break that low, same with silver, then I think people are going to eject and bail out. And that'll be the last people kind of like who are going to get out from this little pullback. They're going to, they're going to get out. And then the market turns around and takes off without them. It's just the typical psychology, just when the majority of people are going to give up at a particular time, give up. That's right. When it puts in the bottom.
Craig Hemke (08:20)
Yeah. Right. Right. We talked about the technicals, the fundamentals haven't changed, right? The supply deficit in silver, the central bank demand for gold, the fact that Trump is going to get rid of Powell in May and put in somebody that's going to cut Fed funds by 200 basis points. I mean, all of these things are still present in the market. It's just this sentiment shifts so fast. So let's shift. Let's shift to silver because like gold, you nailed that a month ago.
Chris Vermeulen (08:34)
Yeah. Yeah.
Craig Hemke (08:56)
You said, you know, I'm looking 48, 49, but man, if we trade up through 50, it could really spike too. And did it ever knew all time highs. So now here we are. And all the silver investors are wondering, oh my gosh, is this 1980 and 2011 all over again? And we're going back to 15. Or, you know, are we just basing and consolidating before the next move? What do you see?
Chris Vermeulen (09:12)
Okay. Yeah, well, I do think based on what we've seen in the past, like in 2008, I do think we're going to see silver continue to move higher. Obviously, we could use a Fibonacci retracement through here. There's a few different levels we could pull back from. Silver is a bit messier of a chart. It requires a lot more percentage pullback. So it still has potential to pull back to like 44, potentially even all the way down to 41 depending on where we grab these lows, I'd be more inclined to grab something more along this level through here, to be honest and kind of get away from that drop. So there's potential for silver to pull back into this, how do I get rid of that tool, into the sweet spot between 45 all the way down to about 42 and change. It could pull back there and still be very bullish. The wild card with the markets in this kind of
Craig Hemke (09:53)
Yeah. Yeah. That was a tariff. Crazy tariff. Hey.
Chris Vermeulen (10:16)
I hate to say bubble, like this kind of feeding frenzy and bubble type of price action is when it does reverse, you know, it's going to be pretty ugly. And this is really just the first pullback in price. I still think the market could recover if we were to just zoom back in silver. This is the chart that scares me the most when it comes to like precious metals is usually when things go in parabolic and they skyrocket higher once the momentum ends and
Has it ever come crashing back down very quickly? And so that's obviously what's on the mind of silver traders. You know, it takes the elevator up. also takes it straight back down again. So I'm really hoping that we're going to see this market have another, you know, I think we could see another green bar, a big green bar that could take us way up here, potentially up into the 60s zone, like high fifties and sixties again. And I base all of that kind of going back and looking at 2000 and 2008. So.
If we were to look at 2008, the S &P 500, you and I touched on this before. The S &P 500 had hit all time highs. Gold was also pushing up. And we saw gold as the stock market started to struggle a little bit, kind of like these few red bars we have now on today's chart, gold started to pull back a bit, had a bit of a hiccup. Well, gold's having a bit of a pullback right now. And what's interesting is what led into this was...
Craig Hemke (11:16)
Yes.
Chris Vermeulen (11:37)
the series of these charts below. have GDX, we have silver, we have platinum and palladium. And really the masses, we saw a lot of people pile into all of these assets during that phase, that little feeding frenzy we've had over the past month. And then we start to see them all have this little multi-week pullback. And what's interesting is after this, eventually the stock market does stall out at the top, it starts to sell off, but as money moves out, of the stock market, goes into the precious metals space. And we see miners take off, we see silver, platinum and palladium, and of course gold, the yellow line at the top takes off. So if we were to just kind of move back here where everyone piled into all things precious metals and miners, and then we had a little bit of a pause and pullback, which I believe is where we're at right now on the right chart. If we compare that same price action, you'll notice it's almost identical. Everybody's chased things up. for the last few months. And now we're having that pause and pullback. Gold's having a pullback. Stock market's starting to struggle a little bit. So it's gonna be very interesting if the stock market does roll over, I think the money's gonna come out of equities and money's always looking for a return. So it is gonna go to wherever the momentum is, whatever is moving higher. And I think we're gonna see that be the precious metals space. Because what happens is if we just look 2008 as the stock market starts to sell off gold shoots higher and it keeps going gold rallies like 30 plus percent to the upside. And of course we also see miners silver and platinum all put in very big runs. I if we go and we take a look at a similar price action silver ran about 46 ⁓ platinum ran about 55 we saw a play them run about 59 percent. So there's some pretty big moves that could come after this and of course gold with that projection that I just showed you up to 5100. You know, if we were to just kind of look at that chart of where that is right where we are right now, that is 5152 hundred is that 30 % move very similar to 2008. So there's a lot of things that look similar. this time different? Possibly. Maybe gold, you know, keeps going higher. And then as the stock market sells off, maybe gold just keeps muscling higher for a long time for years to come. I'm not sure, but I like to follow the charts and move in and out as it's safe. right now you got to be bullish on metal still, think when people are nervous, but I think they should be more so bullish still.
Craig Hemke (14:04)
Right. One more, Chris. We'll use the GDX as a proxy for the gold mining sector. Yeah, this is an interesting story too. We're getting earnings for a lot of the big mining companies that, and they're third quarter, they're all selling gold about from 3,400 to 3,500. ⁓ We're now five weeks in to the fourth quarter and gold's up here around 4,000.
Chris Vermeulen (14:17)
Sure.
Craig Hemke (14:38)
But yet the mining shares are just getting thrown out as if gold's going to 2000, right? ⁓ So with that as a fundamental backdrop, what do you see on the chart of the GDX?
Chris Vermeulen (14:52)
I really, I mean, I don't think fundamentals really drive much stock price action. You know, it's nice to have a trend up. The technicals are bullish and the fundamental is kind of like a tailwind. It gives you confidence to hold through dips so investors don't panic too quickly. But generally I've seen all kinds of mining companies that have unbelievable fundamentals, but the stock price just gets beaten and it's like out of favor for years. Stock price really moves on people's every...
Craig Hemke (14:58)
Yeah, that's true. Good luck.
Chris Vermeulen (15:20)
People make emotional decisions. They buy into it because they believe in it, because they think it's going higher. They're bullish, they're excited, and they sell it when they're scared. And so that's what we saw. We saw this huge move up in miners and, you know, it pulled back so quickly. Like one of these days, like, you know, you look at just, you know, one drop here, dropped 9%, almost 10 % in one day. That's enough to put a jolt through most gold mining investors hearts. They're like, one day I lost 10%. And of course it's lost a lot more than that from the peak, right? So I think the gold mining shares are just showing that people weren't expecting that sharp of a pullback. It shocked them. And they're, they're now wondering like, was this the high or they don't know what to do. And again, I think it's just an overreaction. think, ⁓ I think earnings are probably going to be pretty good, but this is just a pure, pure emotional move on the chart. would look at it more so just as a blip or a dip ⁓ on its kind of bull market journey here.
Craig Hemke (16:22)
Is it as simple as the old all-time high in the GDX back in 2011 or whatever it was, was about 65? ⁓ Blatt, what is that there? You can probably pull that number up. ⁓
Chris Vermeulen (16:36)
Yeah, somewhere around 66 or so.
Craig Hemke (16:38)
Yeah, so you blast through there. Is it just simply, now we got to go back and test that level of support.
Chris Vermeulen (16:44)
Yeah, I mean, that's what the chart seems to be doing at this point. It's pulling back. Usually the market likes to test those type of breakouts, right? Like when it breaks to some new high, it usually wants to come back and give it a little kiss goodbye. We're actually seeing that like, for example, if we go to like the NASDAQ, if we look at the NASDAQ on the daily chart, we saw a breakout here just a few days ago. The market was trading sideways, it broke out and now it's kind of fading back down. So.
I think the gold miners and all that, they've had a very nice run. We can look at silver miners as well, like SILJ. And it's got a, you know, it's having this very similar type of price action. If we look at the monthly chart to get that big, big view going back, you can see the, ⁓ the moves we've, we've broken to some all time highs. It's, it's, think there's going to be a zone through here. think there'll be a zone through all of these tops kind of through this range. It's going to probably want to settle down somewhere into this.
this area to find some support. And then from there it could turn around. There's a lot of interest still in the precious metal space. think you just got a little overheated and you know, there's a quick little bout of selling, but it can turn around on a dime and shoot higher. Like again, this is the monthly chart. So, you know, a couple of days from now, this candle could be green. And then, you know, by the end of the month, it could be up at 28 and it'll just look like, you know, it's that rocket ship move.
We could be somewhere just like this right here, right? We're just, we've had a red bar and the market right now is struggling. And I think this, this, could have a huge green bar here right after, you know, we're kind of just in this hiccup phase. I still think we have one or two green bars ahead of us before we run into some, some headwinds across the board in the precious metal space. So the next two months, I think are going to be critical going into the end of the year.
Craig Hemke (18:36)
Uh, I got one more for you, brother, that I think you can pull it pretty quick. pretty sure November is not typically the best seasonal time for the metals either. Right. Uh, so when you talk about things turning on a dime, September, October is usually pretty good. Uh, November, not so hot, but then December and January is the best seasonal time of the whole year. There you go. Um, kind of says it all.
Chris Vermeulen (18:40)
Okay. October is seasonal high for gold on average. Usually it pulls back into the middle of November. Well, here's, here's October. It's pulling back. We still, we still have one more week in November before we have a tailwind where naturally gold wants to move up. everything is somewhat moving, just, you know, very similar in terms of price action. And it's even kind of the same with the stock market stock market had a pop and breakout as I just showed you on the chart. And now it's pulling back and it's going to test that little breakout.
Craig Hemke (19:08)
Yep. Yeah. Yep.
Chris Vermeulen (19:30)
maybe for the next five or six trading sessions. And then boom, we go into the end of the year holiday rally with both gold and silver. So I think people just need to, I think, hang tight at this point, let seasonality, let the overbought market condition just fizzle out, let it regroup. A pullback and pause is what we want. We don't want really things to just keep rocketing higher because usually it means there's gonna be a sharp, sharp pullback that'll do a lot more damage. So this is a very, controlled pullback in gold. Yeah, it was a five day pullbacks like the biggest pullback in one day for gold in like 30 years or something like that. But it doesn't really mean anything. It's just a lot of people exited on the same day. And when you look at this chart, it's not like it's insanely volatile. It's just a bunch of people sold out. And now it's just kind of drifting down as people who are still scared are trickling out. But once that selling pressure and those who want to sell are done selling, I think we're going to see it pick up. So everybody just needs to hold on for a week or so to mid November and then we should be off to the races.
Craig Hemke (20:35)
Words of wisdom, my friend. Yeah, yeah, mean, the faster you go up, the faster you come down. I just wrote a thing that's on the Sprott Money side. I wrote it back on, well, yesterday, Monday the 3rd. I didn't realize, I mean, because I was 14 years old, 13 years old, Silver in the Hunt Brother thing, the first time I went to 50, went from 10 to 50 in four months, and then back to 10 in two months.
Chris Vermeulen (20:52)
Right.
Craig Hemke (21:00)
So, I mean, yeah, we might be banging up against 50, but we didn't just, you know, get here last week. This has been a process and that's gotta be, yeah, there gotta be some value in that too. Chris, there's great value at the technicaltraders.com. Tell everybody what you can do and where they can find you.
Chris Vermeulen (21:07)
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, well, if people like the type analysis that I do, I really just manage my own portfolio. I share it at the technicaltraders.com and I share my ETF trades. We move in and out of stocks, bonds, currencies. I do precious metal trades. Sometimes we do a Bitcoin trade. I really just focus on managing risk. I don't swing for the fences. I'm not trading individual miners or stocks. I really just focus on a strategy that I call asset revesting, which is this book you can see over my shoulder potentially.
Overall, I just focus on catching waves that roll through the markets. And it's all about hitting a bunch of first and second base hits. And we have five to 12 of those trades every year and they just compound on top of each other. It provides a very steady, long-term, low volatility type of strategy compared to most other strategies. And ⁓ yeah, we just navigate the markets. And every morning I share my analysis on what I think is happening and how it'll affect our portfolio.
Craig Hemke (22:16)
TheTechnicalTraders.com, correct? There it is. All right, well anyway, thanks everybody for watching. And ⁓ gosh, if you watched last month, we've had a heck of a four weeks, Chris. I can't wait to do this again in early December and see what has happened.
Chris Vermeulen (22:19)
Yes. Sounds great. Yep. Looking forward to it.
Craig Hemke (22:35)
I look forward to it too. And everybody, hey, hey, hit like or subscribe so you're notified. You don't forget to watch next month or anything that comes out in between, between now and then. And thanks Sprott Money for all their efforts in providing this information for you, free of charge. SprottMoney.com for all your holiday shopping needs. Chris, thank you. We'll see you again in early December. And thanks everybody for watching. Keep an eye on this channel as the month of November continues.
Chris Vermeulen (22:57)
All right, take care Craig.
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