COMEX Gold Price Analysis And Technical Support

A favorite indicator of technical analysts is the 200-day moving average. Prices above or below this line often reveal the underlying trend. Above, and you're often in a solid uptrend; below, and you're in a pullback and consolidation. After a great run, price now stands at a crossroads.
Rather amazingly, COMEX gold futures have closed their 200-day moving average every day since October 17, 2023. Every day for two and a half years! That's a remarkable stretch that saw price rally from $1900 to $5500. See below:

Gold - Weekly Nearest Candlestick Chart

For current market pricing, review the gold spot price chart and broader spot price charts.

Gold Price Trends And Moving Average Performance

Along the way, price has followed a pattern of 20% rallies, followed by 3-5 months of consolidation. With each pause, technical analysts claimed that price would need to fall back to its 200-day moving average before moving higher again, and along the way, those analysts were wrong every time. As you can see above, price moved in stages from:

• $2000 to $2400

• $2400 to $2800

• $2800 to $3400

• $3400 to $4300

• $4300 to $5500

Yet each advance came without a back test of the 200-day moving average, which I've added as a 40-week moving average below (40 weeks being roughly 200 trading days):

Gold - Weekly Nearest Candlestick Chart

COMEX Gold Futures Market Outlook

But look closely. This time price has retraced to its 200-day, so finally the TA guys are right! One out of six ain't bad! And with that, let's zoom in on the daily chart of the current front month, Aug26 gold contract. As you can see below, after testing the 200-day last week and then bouncing, price is right on the line as I type.

Gold - Daily Candlestick Chart

So what happens next? Well, there are some analysts who claim that the mining shares "lead" the precious metals. If that's the case, the big gold miner ETF that trades under the symbol of GDX forecasted this move in COMEX gold a few weeks ago. On the chart below, note that the GDX closed below its own 200-day two weeks ago before bouncing with some positive war headlines last week. For the GDX, this was the first daily close below its 200-day since January 17, 2025, and it's threatening to do so again today, June 1.

Vaneck Gold Miners EFT - Daily Candlestick Chart

Gold Mining Stocks And GDX Performance

Putting it all together, the charts look negative and the war news looks grim. This is leading to all sorts of bearish sentiment in the sector, and with prices breaking down through their 200-day moving averages, a final flush of speculative positions appears imminent.

Physical Gold Investment Strategy During Market Volatility

However, at TF Metals Report, we have an old adage that has treated us very well since 2010. If you're trading the precious metals and/or mining shares, you must always be ready to sell some when things look great and buy some when things look terrible. To that end, a flush below the 200-day, combined with concerning headlines out of Iran, is likely to lead prices into a corner where all looks lost and investor sentiment reaches a new low. It's at that point I hope to add to my positions and my stack of physical metal.

Where will prices be then? For COMEX gold, perhaps that means an intraday or intraweek drop to about $4300. For the GDX, maybe a washout low near $80. Now please do not construe this as trading advice. Instead, let's just see if that old TFMR adage serves us well again. The COMEX gold price printing below its 200-day for the first time since late 2023 is certain to generate all sorts of negative media attention. My plan is to stand as a contrarian and use the lower prices to my advantage. What's yours?

Investors following precious metals may also find value in tracking the spot silver price chart, exploring gold bars and coins, reviewing silver bars and coins, and reading this about Gold & Silver Stay Strong Despite 2026 Chaos.