FOMC and NYSE Week 

It's going to be a busy week for the precious metals and mining shares as we await the conclusion of the September FOMC meeting and news of fed funds rate cuts. But the action won't relent until late Friday with the expiration of the monthly NYSE options on the big ETFs and mining shares. Let's get ready. 

First and foremost, what should we expect from Chair Powell on Wednesday? The fed funds futures markets are 100% expecting at least a 25-basis-point rate cut, but as you can see below, there's a slim possibility that we get 50. 

Goldman Sachs expects the cuts to be 25 basis points at each of the remaining three FOMC meetings in 2025. However, they are holding out the possibility that a 50-basis-point cut is possible before year end if the labor market continues to weaken. 

How all of this impacts the precious metals might be determined by how it first impacts the Dollar Index. It has been trending sideways to lower over the past few weeks, and any break toward new 2025 lows should send the precious metals soaring. Conversely, if Powell cuts but comes off as "hawkish" in his press conference, the precious metals are likely to pull back as the dollar strengthens. The chart below shows the current downtrend and must be watched through the week. 

Once Wednesday is behind us, we can turn our attention to Friday and the expiration of monthly options on the NYSE. Given the recent rallies in the PMs and most mining shares, there is a considerable skew toward more open call options than puts, and that situation can sometimes bring pressure to prices. 

Let's start with the GLD ETF. As I type on Monday afternoon, the GLD is trading just below $339. As you can see on the table below, there really aren't a whole lot of open options near this price. As such, it's hard to see where NYSE option expiration will have much of an impact on the gold price. 

However, that's not the case with the big gold mining share ETF, the GDX. With a current price of $70.50, you can see below that there are about 5-10X open calls to puts. As such, we might anticipate some selling pressure in the ETF as the week continues. 

Lastly, let's check the big silver ETF, the SLV. Silver has had quite a rally over the past month, and this ETF has moved up in price from near $34 to just under $39. At that price, check how many call options are in the money versus puts. It's not as dramatic as the GDX, but there are still about five times as many open calls as open puts. 

Spot Price Outlook: Preparing for the Next Move in Precious Metals

So be ready for a busy and volatile week. The trend in price has been higher, and we should expect that to continue. But FOMC and option expiration weeks can be tricky, so remain alert and try to keep your eyes on the big picture as we move into the fourth quarter and prepare for 2026.