Gold Commitment of Traders Update

Gold Price Consolidation Signals Opportunity

The gold price has been range bound for the past two months, and it appears it may stay that way a while longer. The trader positioning revealed by the weekly Commitment of Traders report may reveal some clues as to when we might expect the next move higher. Let's take a look at the latest report today.
Before we get started, however, let's examine the daily chart. The price of gold has been stuck in a roughly $250 range since mid-April or about the past ten weeks. For those with only short-term memories, that may seem like a long time, but I can assure you it's not. In fact, lengthy periods of price consolidation are not unusual within COMEX bull markets as price typically advances in a two-steps-forward-and-one-step-back pattern.

Buy Gold During Consolidation Patterns

The most recent, lengthy consolidation period persisted from December 1, 2023, through February 28, 2024. Those three months brought all sorts of exuberance and fear, depending upon the day, but in the end, it was just a consolidation before a breakout. If that sounds familiar, it should. The current consolidation has brought many of the same emotions. What's remarkable is that the charts of each period are nearly the same too! See below, where the chart of Feb24 COMEX gold is on top and the current chart of Aug25 COMEX gold is on the bottom. 

Gold Price Chart - Daily Candlestick 

Again, note the similarities:

1. A rally to a new all-time high
2. An immediate 5% pullback
3. A rally to a double top
4. And then a period of steady to generally falling prices

Market Sentiment Versus Gold Fundamentals

One more similarity: By late February of 2024, there was an abundance of doom being spouted by permabears and naysayers. Gold had "double-topped near its old all-time" and, as such, was now "headed back to $1500 or even lower" as the U.S. economy improved and the dollar strengthened. If you had ignored the underlying bullish physical fundamentals, you might have fallen into that trap, and if you did, you might have missed on the 60% rally that followed over the next 14 months.
As such, if you believe all the naysayers—the "triple top", the "trading range", the "gold is going back to $2500" talk—you might very well miss the next extension of the rally and bull market. So, don't fall for it!
Instead, let's watch the chart closely and try to anticipate the next breakout. What might be a way to do this? By monitoring the weekly Commitment of Traders reports from the U.S. CFTC.

Buy Silver And Gold As Positioning Aligns

When the gold price peaked in early December of 2023, the report revealed:

• The Large Speculators were NET LONG 203,500 COMEX gold contracts, the highest total since late April of 2022.
• The Commercials were NET SHORT about 227,000 COMEX gold contracts.

That 90-day period of price consolidation followed, and both positions were trimmed over time such that by late February 2024:

• The Large Speculators were NET LONG 141,600 COMEX gold contracts.
• The Commercials were NET SHORT 158,300.

So, where are we now? If the charts are the same, is the Commitment of Traders positioning the same too? Sort of.
The most recent all-time high price peak occurred on Tuesday, April 22. That's handy because Commitment of Traders surveys are taken at the COMEX close each Tuesday! So, what did that report show as of April 22?

• The Large Speculators were NET LONG 202,200 COMEX gold contracts, though that level was down 30% from a peak of 300,800 on January 21, 2025.
• The Commercials were NET SHORT 231,900 COMEX gold contracts.

That's pretty close to early December 2023, isn't it?

When Will Gold Breakout Again?

So how about the most recent report? What does it show? Keep in mind one key difference in the charts from 2023 and today—the recent geopolitical scare in the Middle East. This pushed price, total contract open interest, and Speculator positioning higher for a few days and now, with war fears receding, that interest is being worked off.
Regardless, as of last Tuesday, June 24:

1. The Large Speculators remain NET LONG 195,000 COMEX gold contracts.
2. The Commercials are still NET SHORT 230,500.

Now, there are myriad other factors that will contribute to determining when price breaks higher again, moving up and out of this current period of consolidation. However, the Commitment of Traders positioning would suggest that we need a little more time and a little more price contraction before gold is ready to blast off.
How much more time and how much more price contraction? Maybe a couple more weeks and enough selling to prompt a price drop to the bottom of the current range? A short-term drop to the $3200 area ought to do it, so let's keep an eye on that price level. Note that price will find support from its current trendline and 100-day moving average in that area too.

Gold Price Chart - Daily Candlestick 

So let's watch to see what happens in July. Despite the naysayers trying to talk a deeper pullback into existence, the price of gold will soon begin another extension higher in its ongoing bull market. This is not a matter of "if", it's a matter of "when".

Start investing in gold and silver today—capitalize on the next big move.
Don’t wait. Buy gold, buy silver while prices consolidate.