Gold Price Performance In 2026

What a crazy year this has been, and it's nearly half over. Let's take stock today of what we expected, where we've been, and where we might be headed in the second half.

Let's begin with how we finished 2025. Last year brought massive gains for gold, and the percentage move was far in excess of the average this century. In the chart below from In Gold We Trust, note that prior "big" years for gold saw 25% gains, but the year 2025 was more than double that!

Gold Performance in Major Currencies, 2000-20025 YTD

Review that chart and you had to wonder if the gold price would be able to post another gain in 2026. However, as the year began, it sure looked like it would. Gold stormed out of the gate and added nearly 20% in just the first four weeks of the year.

But then it all changed.

Federal Reserve Policy And Gold Market Trends

First came the announcement in late January that U.S. President Trump was expected to appoint Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell. Warsh was immediately expected to be more "hawkish" than Powell, and after last week's June FOMC meeting, it appears he will be.

But gold and silver prices were able to shake off that news in February and soon recovered most of the late January losses. In fact, the big gold mining share ETF "GDX" actually closed with an all-time high on Friday, February 27, and everything looked great...until it didn't.

Geopolitical Risks Impacting Gold Prices

What happened next was something that neither I nor any other analyst had baked into their 2026 forecasts: a major war between the U.S. and Iran, with a subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. These events sent interest rates and the U.S. dollar index soaring as fears of severe price inflation rippled through global markets. These same concerns flipped Federal Reserve rate expectations from cuts to hikes, which you can see in the latest Summary of Economic Projections issued at last week's FOMC meeting.

Federal Reserve Economic Projections Chart

As such, and with the U.S. Dollar Index at its high of the year thus far, the gold price is near its low of the year and currently down 3.1% year-to-date.

You can follow current market movements using the spot price charts and monitor the latest gold spot price chart and spot silver price chart.

Gold Investment Outlook For The Second Half Of 2026

Gold - Daily Candlestick Chart

As you can see on the chart above, the current trend is certainly downward and lower, but will that price movement continue in the second half of the year? Unforeseen events shifted the trend in January, but what unforeseen events might shift prices back higher as 2026 continues?

• A verified end to the Iran War, with crude oil prices falling back to pre-war levels?

• An ease of fears pertaining to prolonged price inflation?

• Concern over the war's global economic impact leading to added liquidity and lower interest rates?

• Potential gold revaluation and/or gold-backed U.S. treasury issuance?

• Continued or increased central bank gold demand due to lower prices?

I could list more options, but you get the idea. Trend and sentiment for the gold price can just as easily shift back to the positive in the weeks and months ahead, so I'm not ready to concede an annual loss just yet. With hindsight, we can see that the gold price was due for some consolidation after annual gains of 27% in 2024 and 61% in 2025. Perhaps some sideways consolidation was needed, and the events of the first half of 2026 have brought that about.

Why Physical Gold Remains A Long-Term Store Of Value

Regardless, the trend in the gold price remains upward for 2027 and beyond as the physical fundamentals remain positive and fiat currencies continue to be devalued. It required 1100 U.S. dollars to purchase an ounce of gold ten years ago, and it took 2000 of those dollars to buy an ounce five years ago. Today it takes 4200. It's not the ounce of gold that's changing—it's the purchasing power of the fiat dollar. With no end in sight, I have no doubt that it will soon require 6000 U.S. dollars to obtain an ounce, and after that, 7000 and then 8000 and then 9000 and so on.

In conclusion, the year 2026 has begun in a manner that has surprised most of us. However, nothing has changed the long-term rationale for stacking physical gold as protection against the monetary madness of the fiat currency system. My plan is to buy the dip. What's yours?

Explore physical precious metals through gold bars and coins and silver bars and coins. For additional market insights, read "New Fed Chair, New Market Risks for Gold and Silver" or "Central Bank Gold Demand And Price Trends".

Ready to protect your wealth? Invest in physical gold and silver today to help preserve purchasing power and build long-term financial security.