Gold and Silver Are Setting Up for a “Meteoric” Move

Craig (00:00)
Hello again from SprottMoney and SprottMoney.com. Believe it or not, we've reached the end of September, which means we've reached the end of the third quarter of 2026. Time just continues to fly. But we're going to wrap up the month regardless. I'm your host, Craig Hemke, and joining me to do that is my old friend Michael Oliver of OliverMSA.com. Momentum structural structural analysis is what MSA stands for.

And we're going to talk a little bit about the month of September, the third quarter, and maybe look ahead a little bit to the fourth quarter. Michael, thank you so much for joining me.

Michael Oliver (00:36)
Good to be back, Craig.

Craig (00:37)
It's always good to see you. And before we begin, it is late in the year. I can't believe it myself. Got to start thinking about the end of the year and tax planning and the rest. Sprott Money's trying to get ahead of that game. if you're doing some tax planning, want to fund an RRSP IRA, want to roll over an IRA, or do whatever you want to do, Sprott Money can help you with that. Get that into physical precious metal.

Sprottmoney.com, you can find more details, or of course you can call them at 888-8610775. Michael, let's start with the monthly wrap-up. Man, we came out of August. great sharp rebound. Sometimes bear markets have sharp rallies, and I'm I'm not sure what that's what that was, but man, we had a great month of August. And then, you know, we went

Michael Oliver (01:28)
Yeah.

Craig (01:29)
from having the expectation of no rate hikes at all the rest of this year

Michael Oliver (01:32)
Mm-hmm, mm-hmm.

Craig (01:34)
at the end of August.

To now it's the end of September. We've had a rate hike and we might get two more. The bond market has sold off sharply and the metals have given back the lion's share of August's gains.

Michael Oliver (01:46)
Mm-hmm.

Craig (01:47)
what do you make of all this as September comes to a close?

Michael Oliver (01:50)
Well, in early August, August the fifth, to be specific, we MSA put out a report arguing that the rally that was about to occur, which did occur and was a thunderbolt type thing, would likely not come back and make a new low afterwards. In other words, every time we've had a rally since the February Jan Feb collapse, which is literally a couple of days.

You have

Craig (02:16)
Mm.

Michael Oliver (02:16)
a rally, and then you come down and make a new low. Okay. Marginal. It was always just enough to tickle out the old low. You know. Somebody's been buying, by the way, silver and gold down there. We'll get that in a second. And then he had another rally after the barge sell-off had a rally. Then he came back down again in the summer, made a new low. Again, marginal versus the prior low versus the prior low. And then in August 5th, we said, okay, upside. Now, if you look at what happened then, silver and gold had a what you call a modest rally.

Percent wise. But the miners had an explosive rally. I mean, GDX and SIL, the two the gold and silver miners, ETFs, came back close to their highs, not quite. But Newmont, the big blue chip gold, and Wheaton, precious metals, comparable silver blue chip, they went back to their highs in a heartbeat. That's like gold going to 5,600, you know, instead of stopping at 460, 4700.

what's going on there? You know, that that made a statement to us because it said we've technically we've been watching this anyway. The long term valuation relationship of the miners versus gold is at pathetically historically low levels and has been ever since the collapse in price of gold and silver in the miners back in 2014 and 15.

Since 2014-15, you've laid sideways in a range of readings where you divide, let's say, the XAU Gold and Silver Miners Index into gold, express it as a percent, and you've had this lazy little but perfect range. Nice little box, technically, but way below valuation levels that prevailed in the 1980s, 1990s, up to 2008.

What kind of difference was that? For example, the average value of XAU divided into an ounce of gold back during those decades was like twenty-five percent of the price of an ounce of gold. Sometimes it got up to thirty-five percent and it made lows about eighteen percent, but on average about twenty-five percent for decades, just like that, a range. But then it broke down it went to four percent. I mean,

Craig (04:33)
Huh, that's true.

Michael Oliver (04:34)
why do we we don't need gold miners anymore, I guess. You know. No, they're going free,

Craig (04:37)
Apparently not.

Michael Oliver (04:39)
you know.

Well, they laid in a range between five percent and eight percent, about eight and a half percent, five percent, eight and half percent for fourteen, fifteen, sixty all the way through twenty twenty five. And then we pushed up to the top of that range and in early twenty six, when gold made its highs, and the miners made their peak in February, a little bit after after gold,

Craig (05:00)
Mm-hmm. Yep.

Michael Oliver (05:01)
that spread was at the top of that range again.

Once you have this box that any idiot with a crayon could draw and say, you break out above that, that's a buy signal. Okay. But you stopped at it again for the third time over a span of a dozen plus years and drop back a little bit, not much. You've now broken out above that. You did it in August. You broke out above that massive range, meaning by miners less than gold. Miners are gonna beat gold now. And likely they're gonna return to some normality of prior.

Valuation to an ounce of gold. That would get out of the ground. Okay. Well, what would the next resistance on that chart when you look at it? You say, well, if you break out of this range, where's resistance? And you look at the old history and you see this bottom end of a range that prevailed for decades. So there's like thin air between where we are now and bumping the bottom of that multi-decade range, up around 18-19%. Okay. Well, we're 9% right now. So it means

The miners could double in relative value to gold just to bump the bottom end of what used to be the old reality. Double versus gold. And they've broken out now. And and this recent pullback hasn't changed it. If you look at, for instance, a GDX chart or a SIL chart, and look at a gold and silver chart now, you'll see one that had a bigger rally percent wise than gold and silver, got closer to their highs. And the pullback is not nearly as severe.

As gold and silver have had. And by the way, I don't think gold and silver are going to make a lower low than they did in June. So that's a statement, and it says something to me that money is starting to move big asset managers into the miners, an overlooked category. And where did they go first? The blue chips, Newmont and Wheaton. They drove them back to their highs. In

Craig (06:54)
Like Newmont. Right. Right.

Michael Oliver (06:58)
fact, New Mont have made a marginal new high.

Craig (07:00)
Mm-hmm.

Michael Oliver (07:00)
What

happened there? Gold didn't go back to the high. Even GDX did not get back. I think it's big money has made a decision, beginning to make a decision, that it's time to reallocate some of these assets out of this questionable stock market. You don't even have to be bearish and be an asset manager. Say, I just want to move

Craig (07:19)
Right.

Michael Oliver (07:19)
a little bit over to some something else, you know. And I see some problems out there with government debt, not just here, but Japan, Europe, UK, you know. That's kind of scary.

And I'm gonna move some over to the gold sector, but I I can't buy bullion. My my fund w doesn't allow me to buy bullion or silver bullion or calls on bullion, you know. I gotta buy miners. And so naturally they gravitate

Craig (07:42)
Mm-hmm.

Michael Oliver (07:43)
toward the biggies, not the little juniors. Okay. I think that's what happened there. And I think it's a statement, an early statement, that we're not at the end of something. We're at the beginning of something.

Craig (07:55)
Yeah. Yeah.

Michael Oliver (07:57)
And so the pullback this year is as far as I'm concerned is exhausted. you better not see if you're a bear, and there's so many people are bearish or totally skeptical,

Craig (08:08)
Yeah.

Michael Oliver (08:08)
especially on silver. Realize what happened over the last eight months percent wise. Yes, a bigger, much bigger drop, 50%, much bigger than gold's drop, which was like less than 30%. but this is what happened back in 2008.

You recall there was a like a one month collapse in gold back in October 2008, when gold said, I need to have a correction. It was already in a bold trend. And it seemed to join the stock market then. And silver back then had a from its high to its low, it was like a fifty percent drop. And it took like eight

Craig (08:42)
Right, right.

Michael Oliver (08:43)
months once you made a high early that year to finally could make the bottom in October of two thousand eight. How many months has it been this time? About eight, okay.

Craig (08:51)
Yeah. Coming up on eight,

yeah.

Michael Oliver (08:53)
And silver dropped

a lot more than gold, just like then. But once that drop was over, silver went from like 11, 12 bucks to 50 again. You know, it's old high, 50 back in 1980. So 2011 it reached 50 again. What's that like a quintupling, okay? Whereas gold tripled. Gold had a low about 660 or 680 in that October and went to 1920.

Craig (09:16)
Something like that. Yeah. Yep.

Michael Oliver (09:19)
So it tripled, but silver beat it by quintuple.

after that October 2008 pullback. But it was about the same number of months. It was the same kind of behavior where gold had like a not quite a 30% drop, whereas it's like we've had like a 29% drop back then. It was a little over 30. But gold had a lesser drop back in 2008 than silver. Silver had a greater one. But when they turned silver outpaced gold for the next several years. I think that's where we are now and our technical work argues

We're that last low in the summer is probably the low. This is going to be probably a higher low than that one. You know, and if and if you'll stand back really and look at gold and silver from February low that collapse, where was silver then? Sixty-three ninety. Sixty-three ninety. And then it rallied a nice big rally, a little over ninety,

Craig (10:12)
Yeah, just about sixty three. Yeah, sixty two. Yeah. Mm hmm. Yep.

Michael Oliver (10:18)
came back down in March, the sell-off after the war selling.

Craig (10:21)
Same level.

Michael Oliver (10:22)
Sixty-one.

6121. Okay, a couple bucks below the Feb low. Then had another big rally. And it came down in July and reached 55. And it had another rally. And right now we're trading around 61. Okay, we're at 61, and it's been eight months since that first major low. And we're what $2 lower than the first

Craig (10:44)
Yeah.

Michael Oliver (10:44)
low? And everybody thinks we've been going down the whole time. We haven't. We've been going okay. Same true with gold. Gold's with $4,200.

You go back to that first drop was like at 4390 or something like that, or 4400. So we're marginally below where we were eight, nine months ago. So if you were bear and you unless you shorted real well, you're you're wondering, why does it this thing collapse? It won't collapse.

Craig (11:08)
Yeah. What do we gotta do here?

Michael Oliver (11:10)
How about some big money is down there? Every time silver gets near 60, just below, just above, they come in again. Gold, you get down anywhere near the low 4000s, they come in again.

Craig (11:21)
Yep.

Michael Oliver (11:22)
And and it it's

anyway, I think that process is over and I think what's about to occur is far more meteoric and vertical than what we anybody expects.

Craig (11:35)
Well let's let's have some fun with that. look I've

Michael Oliver (11:37)
Okay.

Craig (11:38)
Michael, I've known you for several years now. And what I I having been in this space for fifteen or sixteen years, have taken a few arrows, you know, and what

Michael Oliver (11:50)
Mm-hmm.

Craig (11:50)
do I know, right? but I and so I've seen this happen to a number of people. you've been emphatic in your forecasting that the medals are going significantly higher. I think

There's people are so cynical, especially on the internet. They just assume everybody's, you know, trying to sell something, you know, or trying to generate clicks, you know, so they

Michael Oliver (12:10)
Mm-hmm.

Craig (12:13)
can become an influencer or something. What people don't understand about Michael Oliver is he's been doing this for 50 years. He got to start in the 70s working for EF Hutton. Okay. Developed his own let's call it proprietary form of analysis that allows him.

To see forward in the markets and where they may be headed. So when I don't know, Michael, I feel like I'm trying to explain this better than you could. I'm sure you can explain this better than I.

Michael Oliver (12:41)
Mm-hmm.

Craig (12:42)
There are times when you're bearish. There are times when you're bullish. And it just happens that at this particular time, you are bullish. Your work

Michael Oliver (12:50)
Yeah.

Craig (12:51)
makes you bullish. Not sentiment, not clicks, not trying to get more followers or anything. So let's before we get into the metals and where you think they're headed.

Just I mean, just a brief synopsis of what is momentum structural analysis so that people understand where you're coming from.

Michael Oliver (13:08)
Well, there's a lot of momentum tools out there like R SI and MACD that you can get for free on

Craig (13:13)
Mm-hmm.

Michael Oliver (13:13)
your quote screen. And they're like wet noodle type little noodle indicators. They they rise and they fall and so forth. And presumably if they get to certain levels, they're overbought or they're oversold, and that's what people usually use them for. by the way, at times of real dynamic markets, those overbought and oversold metrics will kill you during the

Craig (13:34)
Yeah.

Michael Oliver (13:35)
the bull market, like in nineteen

S about to seventy-eight through eighty when silver had been going up for several years and then went vertical to fifty bucks for the first time. It was overbought for nine months. Meaning

Craig (13:48)
Right.

Michael Oliver (13:48)
that most of the move, your RSI was off the page and MS you y you shouldn't been buying then. It was vertical. So there are times and yeah.

Craig (13:55)
Yeah. But it can stay there.

Michael Oliver (13:58)
And the same on the downside in in in the sustained bear market sweat

Craig (14:00)
Yep.

Michael Oliver (14:03)
off and you'll get overdone and just stay there for you know.

Too long a period of time. And if you bought into the oversold, you get killed. Okay. So what we look at is structure, not little ups and downs. We plot the bars of silver monthly, weekly, whatever, and plot them versus a given moving average, a long-term average, like a three or thirty-six-month or a three-quarter average, to try to get a perception of the long-term momentum trend.

And when we plot it, we don't overlay the moving average on price. That doesn't mean anything to us. You could cross moving averages till you're blue in the face, and sometimes it's meaningless. You know, like everybody thinks you get under the 200 day, it's bearish or above it. No, it's often noise. We look for structure. So when we plot our oscillators, we do like the price guys do. We draw trend lines through lows, flat floors, uptrend lines, one, two, three hits on the line, that kind of thing. You say, there's a trend line. But you don't see it on the price chart.

Most of the time when we develop structural momentum that we can see like a floor you don't want to break or a ceiling you want to go through, you don't see the comparable thing on the price chart, which is an advantage because momentum will almost always turn trend, go from a bare to an up or down up to down, prior to any comparable price breakage. And by the price by the time price tells you, oops, I'm now in a bare trend or a bull trend, it's many months off the low or the high.

Craig (15:30)
Right, right.

Michael Oliver (15:30)
And whereas

momentum already told you three months ago or something like that. we tend to focus on longer term trends. And so for example, back in the 2008 break in gold, which really was a one-month phenomenon, because intra month that month, you had a high over 900 and had the low in the six hundreds, the same month. So literally a couple weeks in that month of October was where the break occurred.

But it was a large percent. Everybody said, it's all over now, it's gone, no good. Yeah. And then then it preceded to triple over the next couple years. we tend to look at long-term metrics and we try to give signal entry points that are optimal, not chasing. Whereas a lot of people like to chase markets because it feels good. Hey, here's a runaway. I'm gonna jump on board that thing.

Craig (16:23)
How smart I am.

Michael Oliver (16:24)
that's not when you want to enter. So for example.

Craig (16:26)
Right.

Michael Oliver (16:28)
Over the last couple years, you know, silver and gold made a high in twenty twenty. And at at twenty twenty, that gold was a couple thousand bucks, two thousand, and silver I think was back up to thirty, thirty

Craig (16:39)
Yeah.

Michael Oliver (16:40)
thirties, yeah, right. And it and then you had this several wasted years where it was down and up and down and up, but basically below that high, two thousand gold, or below the high at

Craig (16:50)
Mm-hmm. Yep.

Michael Oliver (16:52)
thirty bucks silver. In early twenty-four March.

We put out a major buy signal based on annual and quarterly momentum of gold, silver, and the miners. It said, okay, this range-bound situation, we're coming out of it. And that was at $25 to $26 silver. Well, that was still $4 below the high of 2020. So we weren't waiting for a price breakout. So that was one of our prime optimal entry points. Call it twenty twenty-six bucks, let's say. And then a year later, in June of 2025.

Silver had been caught in another range with the high end being 35 bucks a couple times, late 24,

Craig (17:30)
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

Michael Oliver (17:32)
early 25. So it was stuck in a range again, well below the old

Craig (17:34)
Mm.

Michael Oliver (17:35)
50 high, but 35, 35. And when we started to turn up a third time there in the summer of 2025, we said, this time you're going through the 35. You know, don't wait for it. It's it's gonna go. And when it does, you're gonna explode. And we did, because we went through there, we went up and challenged the all-time highs.

That was our second entry. Call that 35 bucks. So the first one was 26, next one's 35. And then in November of last year, something else happened. Silver then closed that month at 56. So yeah, it was a marginal new high on the price chart. So the price chart even spoke. But what happened then was silver broke out versus gold. Meaning if you measured the ounce of silver and divided it into gold, plotted it as a percent, and plotted it, a good history of that.

You'd see there's like a 10-year range, it popped through. So the spread chart said, Hey, I'm going up. And silver at that point went from 56 bucks in November to 120 in a matter of less than two months. It over you don't want to be a buyer at 120, okay? You buy it at 26, you buy it at 35, you buy it at 56, but you don't buy, you don't chase a market when it feels good.

You buy it before everybody feels good about it. And unfortunately,

Craig (18:55)
Correct.

Michael Oliver (18:56)
a lot of people, no doubt, finally became believers at a hundred and a hundred and ten and a hundred and twenty dollars over. And now they're they're cussing the market. And anybody

Craig (19:04)
Yep. Yep.

Michael Oliver (19:06)
who like us who remains bullish, which I think is a few of us around, okay. Yeah.

Craig (19:11)
Right.

So, so with that in mind, because I again I remember fourth quarter last year, and silver was you know just getting above 50 about a year ago.

Michael Oliver (19:21)
Yeah.

Craig (19:22)
And I remember getting people, Michael, and I remember talking to you about it. 60, 80, you know, we've never been able to hold above 50. I know you were this crazy person. Anyway,

Michael Oliver (19:27)
Yeah, yeah. there I was nuts, I know. We were nuts.

Craig (19:33)
we all know what happened next. So using your analysis, I mean, I can create a case fundamentally.

You know, that says, well, we're getting to a point here. We've already reached in the long bond where Besson is starting to apply some yield curve control. And the market has said, Yeah, so much for that, we're just gonna keep on double, we're gonna overwhelm your bid. So I think, you know, we're building a case building toward a case here where some dramatic measures are gonna be taken to control interest rates, and it's gonna be extraordinarily bullish for the metals. That's a fundamental case. On your proprietary momentum analysis case.

Here we are kind of like we've been discussing. It's been eight or ten, eight months maybe, tracing out this kind of bottom. Gold's only down five percent year to date, I should point out to people, right? After a 63% gain last year. What what will you be watching that would give you another? I mean, I'm we're trying to look forward, obviously, but you got that signal at 35. You got that signal at 55.

What will you be looking now as we get into the fourth quarter that'll be like, Okay, we've tripped again.

Michael Oliver (20:43)
Mm-hmm.

Well, we had an intermediate trend buy signal, meaning much shorter term than annual or quarterly momentum. especially annual momentum is during this sharp break we've seen, annual momentum when you plot

Craig (20:55)
Mm-hmm.

Michael Oliver (20:56)
it, plot the monthly bars of gold or silver in relation to their like a 36-month average, they didn't break anything. Yes, it was a sharp break, but there was no structure to be broken, like a a three-point uptrend line. You go back to 2011, there was an eight.

point uptrend line on annual momentum that you couldn't see it on price but on momentum you saw this line so my god I better not break that line and you broke it in late 2011

Craig (21:20)
And it did. Yeah.

Michael Oliver (21:22)
early 2012 and when they broke that line we said that's it I'm sorry it's that's the top took it a while to fall apart but it it ultimately did. We don't have any structure like that. So from a momentum structural point of view we didn't break anything in that drop. We just had a sharp drop much like in 2008.

It was a sharp drop, but it didn't break anything. Gold had already been in a bull trend since 2000, 2001, up through 2008. That October 2008 event was merely a midpoint pause, a shakeout. And then it tripled again. You know, we're in that same kind of condition now, except I think this time the fundamentals that drive gold ultimately are monetary. You look at an M2 chart,

Craig (22:05)
Mm-hmm.

Michael Oliver (22:07)
you say what's caused gold to go up? Look at it.

Parabolic, lovely bull market. Degradation in the money unit, ongoing. Except now it's accelerating. And the one thing they have to do to keep their house from burning down is what the Japanese have been doing. Print, print, print. That's what the prime minister over there said a year or two ago, the Japanese prime minister, and they're doing it. not saving them, but they're printing the money. They can't let the house burn down. Now our house is on fire.

And no matter Besson says, I'm in charge or I'm the boss, right? And you said that like a month ago. The market just won't quit, the bonds keep going down. And I don't want to be short bonds in and expecting higher yields because I know they'll intervene from here and there. But in the process, they're going to be printing

Craig (22:54)
Yep.

Michael Oliver (22:56)
it. They have to. They can't let it burn down. If the foreign countries won't buy it, if private investors tend to backing away from even the short end of the market, as I understand.

Short-term bond short-term yields. They got somebody's got to buy it. And we have the same fundamental condition in Europe, Germany, UK.

Craig (23:17)
Yep.

Michael Oliver (23:18)
So it's it's the entire what we call the Western world, including Japan. This isn't a crisis in Guinea or something, you know, or some country in South America or in Africa. This is a major, this is not like the remember 1998 we had the Thai bot crisis. Yeah.

And the Asian debt crisis. This is the major countries of the world. It's out of control. And there's only one solution they have. They declare martial law, I guess, but that is the print.

Craig (23:48)
Ha ha

Michael Oliver (23:49)
Print. Print. And that is what is the blood of gold, because gold is merely money. It holds its value. Gold going up is merely an expression of the collapsing real value of money. Okay.

Craig (24:02)
Correct.

Michael Oliver (24:02)
And by the way, it has beat the pants off of.

The S P. That's an example. If you go back to 2000 dot com highs, quarter of a century, and where's the SP now? It's up as much as the money supply. It's matched the degradation in the money unit. It hasn't made real money. It's just gone up nominally, like the money s M2 chart. Gold's twenty-fold. Not fivefold. Money supply has gone fivefold. SP fivefold since 2000. Gold's twenty-fold. Okay.

copper is six point eight times where it was then. It's even beat the SP. Nobody acknowledges this. So when you have

Craig (24:45)
Right.

Michael Oliver (24:46)
a debt crisis, that means you have a government monetary crisis, meaning what? They're gonna open up the hoses. I don't care what they say at press conferences, they have to. Gold knows this. So we have a nuclear event this time. We don't have a mortgage crisis. We have a a nuclear event. Yeah.

Craig (25:03)
existential almost, right?

Michael Oliver (25:05)
Mm-hmm.

Craig (25:07)
let's close with a couple of charts that you would send over. this gets more just back to price, but again, stepping back in a way, you know, and forest from trees and all that stuff, right? Rather than listen, not the 50-day moving average on a linear chart, that sort of

Michael Oliver (25:23)
Yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah.

Craig (25:24)
thing. You'd send over and and we'll put them on the screen here, the log charts monthly

Michael Oliver (25:30)
Ratio.

Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

Craig (25:31)
Lo monthly log charts. What do they tell you?

Michael Oliver (25:34)
Well, going back to seventy-five when gold was legalized. You'd see on the gold chart there's three big up two big upwaves. The one that peaked in nineteen eighty, the one that peaked in two thousand eleven. They were both of the exact same ratio dimension. Forget nominal, 'cause when they're stocks trading at ten goes to twenty, that's a doubling. You have a stock at a hundred goes to two hundred, that's a doubling. So it's the same ratio.

But in those cases, those two bull markets were both eight-fold gains from bare low to bull high, different time span, okay? And that's what you see, those two up arrows. If we went eightfold and merely matched what they'd done before, twice before, gold would be between eight and nine thousand. Okay.

Craig (26:16)
Yeah.

Michael Oliver (26:16)
Now I don't think it's going to stop there because we have a debt crisis. we have a nuclear event like we have never had in modern times. Okay. But when you look at silver,

During that same span of time, the baby monetary metal, the poor man's gold. It's been that way for 3,000 years. It's not something new, okay?

Craig (26:35)
Yeah.

Michael Oliver (26:39)
it's been confined below that $50 range. Gold wasn't confined at $800 when it came

Craig (26:44)
No.

Michael Oliver (26:44)
through it in, you know, it it higher highs or higher highs, it's silver was confined in this box. And if you take simply the dimension of that box on a ratio scale.

And do simple, what's a swing objective? Five bucks to fifty is what? Tenfold. Okay. What's tenfold? It's five hundred dollars silver just to match the dimension of the range. so now I'm not predicting five hundred. Frankly, I don't think it'll stop it. I think we have a crisis that it's hard to tell where we're gonna go

Craig (27:16)
Yeah.

Michael Oliver (27:17)
once the events start to unfold. And another event I would be watching right now, and we're watching very closely, is not AI so much.

semiconductors, which we call the top one pretty well, by the way. it's the banks and the financial sector. The financial

Craig (27:31)
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

Michael Oliver (27:33)
sector, something's going on there, guys. And technically we're in a position on so many of the major banks right now, talking of momentum now, long-term momentum, that if you're trading where you are right now, with a day left in the quarter, and you next quarter you're staying at these same price levels, you do not want to close a month around where you are right now.

You better get out of here. And if you don't, you're gonna blow momentum structure that says I'm gonna vacuum to the downside. Well, that's gonna further exacerbate the Fed's need to what? Print,

Craig (28:04)
Right? Yeah.

Michael Oliver (28:06)
print, print. Gold knows this. The fact that investors are lagged to reality, that's their problem. But I think that's where we are right now anyway.

Craig (28:16)
And on the s financial sector, I I hadn't really thought of this, but it is shades of two thousand seven and eight where you had mortgage back securities that were

Michael Oliver (28:23)
Yeah. It's except this time

it's it's far more it's we we showed in a weekend a report about six of the major name banks. Not regionals anymore. Not talking two

Craig (28:34)
Yeah.

Michael Oliver (28:34)
thousand twenty-three when they had a fifty percent drop in the regionals. By the

Craig (28:38)
Yeah.

Michael Oliver (28:38)
way, all went up during that time. this is these are the banks that you know, the big names. Yeah, yeah, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs.

Craig (28:43)
JP Morgan and the rest.

Michael Oliver (28:47)
Well, we're not picking on any one of them. It's a group. They're all sitting on a floorboard that's ready to crack.

Craig (28:54)
Well, that's some I think something

Michael Oliver (28:55)
Okay.

Craig (28:57)
that people should check out at Oliver MSA dot com, frankly. 'cause that's some I like I said, I didn't thought about that in the s in the bank balance sheets that are being negatively impacted by this move in the bond market and moving rates, right? It's not as bad as two thousand eight, but it's kind of a similar

Michael Oliver (29:12)
It's no. Most

analysts are dismissing it as a transitory problem. No big deal. Yeah. Yeah.

Craig (29:17)
Yeah, transitory. We've heard that

word before. anyway, if someone were to go to Oliver dot com, what would they find there? Landing page and in information on how to get

Michael Oliver (29:28)
Yeah, there are lot of

historical charts that we show tops and bottoms that we picked, but also we explain our methodology to a to a great

Craig (29:36)
Mm-hmm.

Michael Oliver (29:36)
extent. So it's it's different. It's not price charts and drawing trend lines, okay?

Craig (29:42)
Mm-hmm.

Michael Oliver (29:43)
that's secondary to us. anyway, enjoy. Yeah.

Craig (29:47)
what d monthly

subscriptions, annual subscriptions, how does that work?

Michael Oliver (29:51)
Yeah, well we put out usually for our th all asset category subscribers, we call it the three sixty report every weekend, but usually there's two or three reports during the week. We cover bond markets, stock markets around the world, commodities in general, debt markets, and forex. and so w we we cover all four major asset categories. And it's important to watch because like I said, you you want to know what gold might be doing.

better be looking at those banks. You think the

Craig (30:22)
No doubt.

Michael Oliver (30:23)
stock market's looking steady, you better start looking at those banks. you know, it's anyway.

Craig (30:29)
Well, good stuff, my friend. And I just very much appreciate all that you share openly, whether it's that your Twitter account is at Oliver MSA. All right.

Michael Oliver (30:40)
My son Brett handles that, yeah. Yeah.

Craig (30:42)
So you can you can follow follow that on X. and like I said, I just I I'm pleased to consider you a friend and I just highly valuable

Michael Oliver (30:51)
Thank you, Craig.

Craig (30:52)
the information you share with us, Michael. So thank you very much.

Michael Oliver (30:55)
Thank you.

Craig (30:57)
from all of us at Sprott Money, SprottMoney.com. Thanks for watching. boy, we're gonna wrap up the month. as we record this 29th, the month's gonna end tomorrow. The new quarter is gonna begin. Goodness me, what does October have in store? Keep an eye on this channel, hit the like or the subscribe button so you don't miss any of the new content will be coming your way in October. And again, be sure to thank Sprott Money for putting all this content out there. For now, though, we'll wrap up the month of September. Thank you to Michael Oliver. Thank you for everybody for watching. And look forward to seeing what happens once we get into October.