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The past few weeks of price action have once again brought out all the usual top-callers, bubble-bursters, and permabears. And that's fine. They serve a purpose. However, gold remembers The Big Picture and is behaving precisely as we expected into year end. And if you think 2025 has been fun, you ain't seen nothing yet.
Let's start with a post that was written the last week of August. Back then, we were awaiting the next seasonally-driven breakout in the gold price—a breakout that was expected to bring another rally of 15-20% and move gold past $4000/ounce.
And that's exactly what happened, with price moving all the way to $4380 before the buying was exhausted and the next consolidation period began. As we update the weekly chart, you might refresh your memory with this post from two weeks ago.
How is "The Big Picture" impacting price and preventing a steeper price drop and "bubble pop"? Last Friday and the weekend brought several reminders. Here are just a few.
Let's start with Fed Governor Williams suggesting that a return to outright and overt QE is right around the corner:
Next, in the absence of BLS data, here's a projection of a rising unemployment rate from the Fed's own economists:
Here's one of President Trump's primary economic advisors pointing out that the U.S. economy is taking a substantial hit due to the government shutdown (you can be certain that Jerome Powell sees this as well):
And all of this against a backdrop of continued and resurgent central bank gold demand in October, notably with Brazil adding gold to its reserves for the first time in over four years.
So here's what you need to understand this week: The rally in the gold price from $3500 to $4300 was not a "blowoff" and it was not a "bubble". Instead, it was nothing more than the next leg of a surging bull market that began when price broke to new all-time highs in early 2024. The next leg up, which will begin next month or in early 2026, will carry price another 15-20% higher and toward $5000/ounce.
The year 2026 will be amazing for gold and silver prices as The Big Picture comes fully into focus and investors around the world begin to realize what's happening. As such, ignore the naysayers, doom prophets, and click generators. Instead, prepare accordingly and front run the next surge in price for gold, silver, and the mining shares.
Start investing in gold and silver today—capitalize on the next big move.
Don’t miss a precious opportunity.
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Since 2008, our customers have trusted us to provide guidance, education, and superior customer service as we help build their holdings in precious metals—no matter the size of the portfolio. Chairman, Eric Sprott, and President, Larisa Sprott, are proud to head up one of the most well-known and reputable precious metal firms in North America. Learn more about Sprott Money.
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