Craig Hemke (00:00) It's a new month from Sprott Money and SprottMoney.com. We have now reached September and the final third of the year 2025. It's time for your precious metals projections. I am your host, Craig Hemke and joining us as per usual is Chris Vermeulen of the TechnicalTraders.com. Chris, how are you today? We're off to quite the start of the new month. Hey, I just, I'm going to start this with a reminder.
Chris Vermeulen (00:28)
I'm good, Creg, how are you?
Craig Hemke (00:37)
You watch the gold price going up, you watch the silver price going up. The metals don't change, okay? You might think that all of a sudden they're getting expensive or something like that. No, it's not the metal that's getting expensive. It's your dollar that is getting less valuable. The metal's not changing, okay? It is the dollar that is now buying less and less of it. So keep stacking. Go to SprottMoney.com. You can see all the deals. They just got a whole bunch of silver in keep stacking. We stacked at 15, we stacked at 25. We're going to keep stacking here in the 40s as well because of where this is all eventually headed. The math is the math, right? It's just going to take more and more dollars and more and more Canadian dollars, more and more pounds, francs, euros, all you need take more and more of that service of debt, which makes gold more valuable in all of those currencies. Go to SprottMoney.com.
Chris Vermeulen (01:27)
Mm-hmm.
Craig Hemke (01:36)
And get your hands on some or call them up at 888-861-0775. Okay, Chris. We ended the discussion back at the beginning of August by pointing out that we were entering into a rather strong seasonal period for gold and silver. Typically, August into September ⁓ is about the second best time of the year after December into January. So now here we are. Breaking out of our most recent consolidation as we record this silver well into the 40s. ⁓ Please mention, you got the chart right there, but also, hey, you don't just follow the metals. What is the best asset and the worst asset now as we begin September?
Chris Vermeulen (02:21)
Yeah, well, I would say the best asset is probably gold, silver and miners. I think the precious metals kind of space, those three things are the sweet spot for all kinds of reasons. You and I have talked about it in the past, but seasonality wise, mean, gold is on a tear. It should be heading higher. When you and I look at the market stages of where we're at and we look at these cycles, we're in a precious metals phase right now or the stock market. This blue cycle is topping out. This is typically when precious metals come to life.
And that's what we're starting to see. And then of course, just looking at the chart of gold here, I mean, this is just this last rally. You were mentioning just off camera that gold tends to have these repeated moves where it rallies 15%, pauses for a few months, rallies 15%. It just keeps doing that, as you mentioned out. And this last big bull flag pattern here, if we just use Fibonacci extensions to get an idea of where it is headed,
You can see gold's next two upside targets are about 13, or sorry, 3730 and about 4100. And you and I touched on this a month ago in our last precious metal projection report. So there's a nice move. And of course this happens to be, I mean, if we just grab the tool and take it from this bull flag, it happens to be about that 15 % breakout, just like we've seen in the past. So I like gold here. Gold is breaking out. It's got this beautiful chart pattern.
Craig Hemke (03:32)
Yes, we did.
Chris Vermeulen (03:49)
And a lot of things are kind of showing that maybe the music is coming to an end for the equities market. We're seeing lots of selling. I think precious metals is probably the best asset right now. And you asked what the worst asset is. The Magnificent 7 are showing some signs of selling. If we go and we take a look at those, just using the Mags ETF in a nutshell, it could be putting in a topping phase here.
Craig Hemke (04:14)
Hmm.
Chris Vermeulen (04:15)
There's a bunch of different patterns you could potentially kind of pull out of here. You could say it's a really ugly shoulder, a head and a shoulder. We've got a rising neckline. You if you break that, it's a big unwinding event to a bear flag and potentially, you know, this, this will completely turn the market around. So we need to see the Magnificent Seven find a bottom or else they are going to take the market down. They kind of are the market at this point. So that, that's, that's the question. I'm not saying stocks are the worst.
Craig Hemke (04:21)
Oops.
Chris Vermeulen (04:43)
But they're on the verge of becoming one you don't want to be holding.
Craig Hemke (04:47)
Speaking of seasonality, right? We all know about September and October, not necessarily, and it doesn't play out all the time, but some of the worst declines in the U.S. stock market has certainly occurred about this time of the year. Imagine that'll be on a lot of people's minds too.
Chris Vermeulen (04:55)
Mm-hmm.
Yeah, for sure. You know, we had like on Friday, we had a little bit of selling in the market. It was a month end. So there's a lot of reshuffling that happens at the end of a month and potentially at the very beginning of a month. So today is definitely an emotional day. We're seeing lots of selling across the board. There's probably some big rebalancing. But when you look at the charts of the money flows and we take a look at the top left-hand side, the Russell, the Dow, the S &P 500, dividend stocks, the NASDAQ, they're all being hit.
Craig Hemke (05:15)
Mm-hmm.
Chris Vermeulen (05:33)
fairly equally to the downside. There really aren't a whole lot of things positive today other than the dollar and gold. And during a bear market and during some really fearful market sell-offs, we usually see the dollar and gold rally together. That is a big sign that there's some big fear in this market.
Craig Hemke (05:53)
Yeah. Well, you've got that gold market or the gold chart that you had up before ⁓ with those bull flags. ⁓ On the daily chart, you've got that breakout. We've been in that consolidation. I think we've been up there. This would have been the sixth attempt at finally breaking above 3,500. Remember we joked about that last month? It's the old quintuple top pattern. ⁓ But we blasted through. ⁓
Chris Vermeulen (06:13)
Yeah.
Craig Hemke (06:21)
Where we if you get, know, typically it seems like you get, know, what was support or what was resistance become support? Would you be wary of a pullback of fake breakout? You know, as we get all this news later this week, what would you look for by the time we get to the end of this week that would make you think, okay, yeah, this is the real breakout and that was that $4,000 target is next.
Chris Vermeulen (06:43)
Yeah, I mean, ideally we want to see a weekly close kind of above this resistance area. There's news coming out on Friday. think we got jobs or something like that. And the Fed announcement potentially, you know, that'll help them decide whether they're going to do a quarter basis point cut, which will dramatically move all kinds of stuff, obviously stocks, interest rates, bonds, gold. So we're really close to, it's going to be a volatile week in the market. And I think gold could easily pause or pull back. might take a
Craig Hemke (06:52)
Yeah.
Chris Vermeulen (07:11)
a little bit of a hiccup here. It could come back and settle into these highs. But overall, the momentum looks like it shifted to the upside. It looks like a very clean break today, the way the markets are moving, or really it was a break on Friday. mean, I like to look at the ETFs. You and I touched on this in the last session. If you look at the Sprott ETF, this only shows regular trading hours. And I like it when the market breaks above, was gonna close above these highs. I said, it could close above these highs from several months ago.
Craig Hemke (07:18)
Mm-hmm.
Chris Vermeulen (07:41)
that will be a very good sign. And so we had that on Friday, you know, and now the market is popping and breaking out. So it looks like a legit breakout when you, what I like about regular trading hours, is this is when the majority of volume trades. So this is to me is when it closes here during regular trading hours, it means there's enough volume and it's willing to hold overnight and continue to move higher. So it looks like gold's breaking out. We're looking at about a 6%, about 5 % upside to their first target.
Craig Hemke (07:55)
Yeah.
Chris Vermeulen (08:11)
and then about 15, 18 % to the next target. And that could happen very quickly. That could happen really just in one to two months, potentially less. I think we're very close to the end of a stock market, like the rising stock market, and when it does start to fall off a cliff, this is when gold can have that parabolic move and shoot higher and potentially blow way past that. I mean, we had a similar setup like this in 2008. It was looking like gold was going to...
Craig Hemke (08:19)
Mm-hmm.
Chris Vermeulen (08:39)
rally about 20%, it ended up rallying 37 % because we hit this tipping point, major turning points in the market. You have blow off tops, you have capitulation panic washout lows on a market bottom. And so we might be at that major turning point. So gold might hit 41, but it could spike and go way above it. And silver could do the same. I think we could potentially see silver actually spike up and hit that $50 an ounce. When you look at the chart of silver, especially when you look at the monthly chart,
I mean, all these charts are very bullish looking and pointing to a final blow off and a squeeze way up here. And silver, as you know, can be a rocket ship once that train starts.
Craig Hemke (09:20)
Yeah. Speaking of
blow off tops and periods of despair, let's talk about silver. I might dial you back for a second to the, maybe the daily or the weekly chart. has some, the weekly chart has some of that same consolidation, just a little more ragged and choppy than gold. But the daily chart has, well, yeah, let's start there. There's a weekly chart. Again, some of that same kind of movement of new highs, higher highs, higher lows, and now surging.
Chris Vermeulen (09:24)
Yeah. Yeah.
Sure.
Craig Hemke (09:51)
⁓ what would you look for there? And then if you don't mind, or maybe start with the daily chart and double back, ⁓ daily chart has just been in almost a real consistent channel ever since those lows in April. anyway, I'll just stop there. I guess there's a question in there somewhere, Chris. I'll let you take it.
Chris Vermeulen (10:07)
Yeah,
well, the channel you're talking about, I think, is, know, this this channel has just been running up in this channel since, you know, since back then. Now it's kind of blowing off and starting to move, extend above it. So it's a very good sign. mean, Silver's a pretty noisy chart. It has a lot of lot of whipsaw. I think if we were to drop to the weekly chart, we get a little cleaner view. We could just get rid of these lines. We could look at a couple different levels of where Silver could go.
using Fibonacci extension, we could take a low here, we could take this run up here and down to here. And this shows where silver could potentially pop and rally to, which is about $49. And of course that brings us back, you go back in time, that's pretty much the previous peak, give or take a buck or two. At that point, if we start to shoot up there, I mean, there's gonna be probably a huge spike in price, probably pierce through 50, it's gonna wanna run the shorts out if there are any up there or.
Craig Hemke (10:47)
Imagine that.
Yes it does.
Chris Vermeulen (11:05)
the short squeeze will cause it to rally. So there's quite a bit of upside potential. Just from where we are right now, it's about 16%. And I mentioned this to you last time. I'm like, it's funny because silver and gold actually have roughly the same amount of potential gain ⁓ based on the technicals. And I like gold because I find I win a lot more trades. I have a much higher probability with chart pattern gold the way I trade gold. So if they have the same upside potential,
Craig Hemke (11:28)
Me too.
Chris Vermeulen (11:34)
I like gold because it doesn't have the shakeouts, the fake outs and the volatility and we can make the same amount of silver. So that's my take. I like them both, but I think gold is the, to me is the more logical play just because it looks like it has the same potential upside without the noise to it. know, silver miners are popping and really ripping higher too. I mean, let's pull up.
Craig Hemke (11:37)
Right.
Right. Which
as you pull those up, I mean, that's, I talk about this on my side a lot. If the charts of the GDX and the GDXJ and the SILJ and the like are projecting even higher, what does it tell you the metals are doing at the same time then? You know?
Chris Vermeulen (12:15)
Yeah, well, this is what we want to see. We want to see miners leading the way and they haven't been until the last couple of months and now they're taking the lead. have SILJ, which we've been long for several weeks. It's potentially set to close at an all time high. Actually, I think it closed at an all time high last week, but it's continuing to push higher. There's huge volume in it. We're long gold. think these are plays that the fact that they're breaking out is really interesting. ⁓
Craig Hemke (12:21)
Mm-hmm.
Chris Vermeulen (12:43)
It's interesting how the silver small caps are hitting. I don't know if these are all time highs. I don't know if the CTF goes. Oh, it's not quite all time highs. Pretty darn close. But we got the large caps, as you had mentioned earlier, GDX is hitting, is closing at a new monthly all time high, going back, you know, 14 plus years. This is a good sign. Money is definitely moving into the more stable large caps. And then I think we'll see the gold miner juniors maybe play catch up.
Craig Hemke (12:52)
close.
Chris Vermeulen (13:12)
and really start to pick up speed here, they might actually start to take the lead. I think the large caps have led the way and now I think people are gonna be starting to look for, okay, what hasn't popped and taken off quite as much. And maybe the small caps for gold miners start to pick up speed and take off. But yeah, we're definitely seeing a combined rally. And I think you and I talked about this a month ago is when the gold miners are leading the way, as you just mentioned, that's a really good sign for physical gold. It's one of the reasons why we've entered a new gold position is because
Seasonality wise, we're in favor. The whole cycle of the economy shows we're still in this major topping phase where gold and precious metals come to life as a global safe haven play. ⁓ And of course now miners are taking the lead in shooting higher. And usually if that's the case, physical gold and silver want to keep going much higher for quite some time afterwards. So we're in that kind of sweet spot for.
precious metal traders and this is the time to enjoy it. Because it's in a zone here where we're going to probably hit some new all time highs and we're going to keep having fun with these miners and gold itself.
Craig Hemke (14:09)
Yeah.
Well, I guess that would be my final question for you this month. I noticed back on Friday on my site, discussion about, when should we take some off the table? We got such big gains, you know, and all that stuff. And Eric Sprott, who was the guy who taught me, said, you know, a lot of people cut their losses. They let their losses run. They cut their profits short. You know, hey, I doubled my money. I'm going to...
When you get one that's working, you need to put more money into it. And that's why Eric Sprott is Eric Sprott, and I'm just this guy sitting in his basement talking to you. ⁓ But that's a valid question. Because things aren't going straight up. So there's always going to be trading opportunities. You look at something like the GDX or break it down to individual miners. There's a fundamental case here. If you pick it, Newmont, Agnico, whatever. ⁓
Craig Hemke (15:10)
If they're making X amount of dollars a quarter at $3,300 gold, well, by God, how much are they going to be making at $4,100 gold, right? And there's all this cash in the world that could come flooding into our sector. How could somebody, you know, if we start moving into new all-time highs, which is what it looks like we're going to do, you're in kind of uncharted territory. Besides hiring you, how does somebody assess
Chris Vermeulen (15:19)
Yeah, well.
Craig Hemke (15:36)
When you're in all time high, uncharted territory, where are your spots that you should say, I'll take a little off here or maybe put some back on later?
Chris Vermeulen (15:44)
Yeah, I mean, that's the nice thing about using Fibonacci extensions that we showed. It shows there's two upside targets. Every time you have a new pause or pullback, you can re-gauge where that next move should go, those next two upside targets. So for silver, was $49 an ounce is kind of the next stop. And so that's the nice thing about technicals. And if you use the proper tools, you can project where that run should start to run out of steam and take a bit of a pause or breather.
And if it does take a pause or breather, usually when it hits those targets, I trim off, I lock in gains, I'll move my stops up. And then of course it'll have a pause in our hiccup. then if it starts to turn and starts to rally again, I can quickly draw the new extension and be like, okay, this is breaking out of this little bull flag and this is the next upside target. So using technicals allow you to trade where price has never been before. Fibonacci I find is really the only and the most powerful tool that works for not only markets hitting highs, new all-time highs, but also to figure out where support is, where it should bounce or hold a trend. So it works really well. I had to pick, you really four things to trade the markets, it would be the 20-day moving average and the five-day. More or less, if the 20-day moving average is sloping up and the five-day moving average is above it, you're in an uptrend. If the five-day is below it and there's trending down, you're in a downtrend. That's like a swing trading style, just identify a trend.
And then of course, use Fibonacci extensions so you can figure out your targets to the upside. Use Fibonacci retracements to find out where support is, where a pullback should hold. I mean, those are the four best things. allows you to be aligned with the trend and then also know where support and targets are. And that's really the only way to gauge unless you're just gonna buy and hold, which I'm not a fan of. And...
Yeah, that's just how you navigate the markets really one market leg at a time. Every leg allows you to recalibrate. Where's the next leg after that? And you just kind of take it one step at a time.
Craig Hemke (17:40)
Well, here, let's do this then for our final chart, because maybe this would be instructive and you can play around with the chart a little bit. Agnico Eagle, right, AEM, kind of alternating back and forth with Newmont as the largest market cap stock. ⁓ But again, there you go. New all-time highs blasted through there several weeks ago. Okay, so let's look, maybe go to a daily chart of that one or weekly, whatever you want to use.
Chris Vermeulen (18:02)
Yeah. Yeah. Sure.
Craig Hemke (18:11)
That there
they are, that thing's off the chart, you know, beyond which be dragons, right? We've never been here before. You can, let's look at it.
Chris Vermeulen (18:17)
Yeah, so let's use the weekly chart
first. Let's look at the big picture so we understand where the big underlying trend is. So obviously there's a big consolidation here and we've got a low through here. We had our big rally up and then we've got a significant low here before it went into a huge pause. So that'll give us a couple longer term upside targets. And this is the one thing I've always shared with you, Craig, on here is when you hit this 618, that's called the golden ratio. When there's a pause at the 618,
Craig Hemke (18:27)
Mm-hmm.
Chris Vermeulen (18:47)
you almost always go up and hit the one, the 100 % measured move after that. So 153.44 is the next upside target for this. Now let's drop to the daily chart and we'll get a bit of a gauge on this one here. So I'm just gonna get rid of this line. So we just kind of got a bit of a cleaner chart to look at. Let's just take a look where we're at. So there's a couple of different little bull flags here. It doesn't look like there's a really clean one to go off of.
Craig Hemke (18:52)
Yeah, that's like an easy one.
Chris Vermeulen (19:17)
a rally and a pullback here. This one here looks more significant based on this type of move. We could say that this is a leg up, this is a leg down. We could carry that forward. So just based on the momentum, I know there's a lot of lines on here, but this is based on this rally up, this pullback, saying it should hit this 618 and then go all the way up to 150 190. So there's two targets, a weekly chart that goes back a long time.
Craig Hemke (19:45)
pretty close.
Chris Vermeulen (19:47)
plus the daily chart. if it gets to 151 or more or less 152 to 153, there's a couple patterns saying there's gonna be sellers there. People are gonna be selling, there's gonna be overhead resistance based on that momentum.
Craig Hemke (20:02)
I think that's extraordinarily valuable. ⁓ I can't wait to share that with everybody at TF Metals Report because it looks, I mean, nothing's a sure thing, but it certainly looks like many of these mining shares are going to follow the path of Agnico Eagle and start moving into new all-time highs, whether it's the shares of the ETFs. And again, how do you know? Where can you guess? And ⁓ that's very instructive, Chris. And I would encourage ⁓ everybody, again, if you don't want to try to do this yourself, you need somebody like Chris to help you out.
Chris, where can everybody find your work?
Chris Vermeulen (20:34)
Yeah, they can always go to my website, thetechnicaltraders.com and over there I share all kinds of analysis and what I do with my trades. And on my blog, I post a lot of really interesting educational articles that are kind of timeless, how people blow up their money in bull markets. I share lessons learned from Cathie Wood and probably soon Tom Lee as well. I've got all kinds of really interesting things, how the problems with being a perma bear or the benefits. People see perma bear as through the wrong lens. And there's some really good educational articles here, but if you read through these, you get a good insight of what's going on in the markets and what's going on inside your brain. A lot of people are thinking and seeing things the wrong way. And once you see the markets through a different lens, a technical lens and one that's not run by emotions, then you can really kind of sit back and enjoy the markets. And at my newsletter, I share the trades I do with my portfolio and...pretty much I just educate every day before the market opens. Here's what's happening. Here's what you're probably gonna think and feel and here's what the market should do. And I share my ETF trades with everybody.
Craig Hemke (21:42)
Great stuff. And I know it's not just me. Eric has told me on multiple occasions how much he values your insights and your inputs. so again, Chris, thank you. I think it's always great to visit with you at the beginning of every month and we'll be sure to do so again in early October. We'll see where we stand by then.
Chris Vermeulen (21:59)
Yeah, always a pleasure, Craig. Thank you.
Craig Hemke (22:01)
And from everybody here at Sprott Money, SprottMoney.com, thanks for watching. But hey, we're just getting started in what promises to be a very volatile and crazy month of September. So keep an eye on this channel wherever you've been watching this video. Sign up, get notified every time there's something new, because there's going be a lot more coming your way as we go through the month of September. But for now, we'll wrap up. Thank you, Chris, for your time. Thanks everybody for watching. And I hope you enjoy this month's version of the Precious Metals Projections.
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