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With just three weeks to go before 2025 draws to a close, let's check in on both of our precious metals and try to get a handle on where prices are headed into year end and the first quarter of 2026.Let's start with gold, where it has been a fantastic year…and that's a bit unusual. Why? Because as you can see below in this handy table from Ronnie Stoeferle and his team at Incrementum, after a 25% up year, you can generally expect a flat-to-down year to follow. Not in 2025, however!
What's happening that makes 2025 so unusual for gold? A number of things. Central bank demand continues to underpin the market, but most importantly, it seems as if large institutions and hedge funds are "front-running" events that are pending for 2026. What events are those? Please see this post from late October for further speculation: https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/gold-silver-prices-in-2026-spot-price-analysis
Ever since the initial breakout to all-time highs in early March of 2024, the gold price has been tracing out a steady pattern of 15-20% rallies that are followed by 2-4 month periods of consolidation. You can see this progression on the weekly chart below.
That chart clearly suggests that the next breakout is coming, likely in the next 3-5 weeks. Following the pattern, the next 15-20% should take price to near or above $5000/ounce. And what might spark that next rally? A number of factors, but the seasonality for a late December and January rally is certainly on our side, as you can see in this chart from StoneX.
We'll see how it all plays out, but the signs certainly point to a year-end and early 2026 rally in the gold price. But what about silver? It just made new all-time highs last week, so should we expect it to tag along when gold moves higher? Yes, of course. But what might be the catalyst?
First of all, as we wrote last week, the silver price is currently rallying due to a number of factors, chief among them momentum-chasing CTA funds that are buying the COMEX futures. However, dwindling stockpiles in Shanghai and London are also playing a role. These are long-term trends that bear close monitoring in the weeks and months ahead.
That said, I once again implore you to ignore the current noise about some kind of imminent COMEX default. Yes, the collapse of the digital derivative and fractional reserve pricing scheme is inevitable, but I can assure you that it's not starting on COMEX this month. As the "delivery month" of Dec25 COMEX silver continues, please allow me to provide some context to the current pace of deliveries. As you can see below, it's nothing unusual and it’s playing out at a pace far slower than what was seen as recently as March and May of this year.
• Dec24: There were 8,807 contracts open and "standing for delivery" when the Dec24 went "off the board" and into its delivery phase on 11/27/24. Additional contracts for immediate delivery appeared during the month of December, and the total amount of deliveries finished at 9,166 contracts for 45,830,000 ounces.
• Mar25: 15,691 contracts remained open on February 27, and a total of 16,149 deliveries were made as the month of March played out for 80,745,000 ounces.
• May25: 13,566 remained open on April 29, and the month end total finished at 15,122 deliveries and 75,610,000 ounces.
• July25: 6,947 remained open on June 27, and the month finished with 9,344 deliveries totaling 46,720,000 ounces.
• Sept25: 9,965 remained open on August 28, and the month finished with 13,640 deliveries totaling 68,200,000 ounces.
• Dec25: 9,866 remained open on November 26, and there have so far been a total of 10,259 deliveries totaling 51,295,000 ounces.
It should be clear that the pace of Dec25 is almost identical to Sept25 and so far nowhere near the levels seen in March and May. So, did the COMEX survive March and May and somehow avoid the "default" that is currently the driving force of internet hype and hyperbole? Yes. And it will survive December too.
So, for now, let's dispense with the talk of an imminent "price reset" and instead look forward to where the silver price is headed in the context of the current pricing scheme and market structure.
As you can see on the chart below, the COMEX silver price broke out in late November after a six-week period of price consolidation that began in mid-October. It's trading well above all of its key moving averages and is clearly in a bull market. Price may still pull back and test the October highs for support, but there's nothing here to suggest that a major reversal is pending.
Once above $60, the next surge should add at least another 10-15% to price, which sets the target at $65-70. However, if the gold price truly does make it to near/above $5000 sometime in Q1 of 2026, then the eventual goal for the silver price might be $70+.
After that, and through 2026, recall the weekly chart of gold shown above and note that after its breakout to new all-time highs in early 2024, the price doubled over the next 18 months. A similar move in silver would target $95-100 by early 2027.
So let's see where this week takes us. The December FOMC meeting that concludes on Wednesday will almost certainly have a short-term impact on price. However, be sure to keep in mind that Chairman Powell can pontificate all he wants about "hawkish rate cuts" but it doesn't really matter since his days leading The Fed are clearly numbered. Far more important for 2026 is who replaces Powell, and it's very likely to be a Yes Man for President Trump—a Yes Man who is almost certain to sharply cut rates by summer of next year.
Thanks for taking the time to read this post, and I hope you have a great week!
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January 13, 2026
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