An Important Week Ahead - Gold and Silver Prices

Gold and silver prices are under heavy pressure as I type this on Monday morning. But it's going to be a long and busy week, so we might try to take it day-by-day in the hope that prices might hold and reverse by Friday.

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Quarter-End Gold Price Volatility and COMEX Gold Futures

It's unusual for me to focus a weekly column on the price action of the week ahead, but this is an unusual week. First of all, it's the end of the month on Wednesday and the end of Q3, too, and you never know how institutions and hedge funds will position themselves out of one quarter and into the next. Additionally, the October COMEX gold contract goes off the board and into its delivery phase on Thursday. Though October isn't typically a busy month, you should expect some level of volatility as the full transition to December continues.

Jobs Report, PCE Inflation, and Treasury Yields in Focus

But it's the economic data that will really drive prices this week. Oh sure, we always have to worry about unscheduled news, and in 2026, it has been the unscheduled news that has really plagued precious metal prices. This week, however, is full of scheduled news. Below are just the "major" headlines that are pending.

• Tuesday: the JOLTS job data and three Fed Governor speeches.
• Wednesday: the ADP jobs report and the latest PCE inflation data.
• Thursday: the manufacturing sector PMIs.
• Friday: the U.S. jobs report for September.

Important in all of this will be the impact upon the bond market and rate hike expectations. As the week begins, we are seeing new multi-decade highs in U.S. treasury yields. In fact, despite Bessent's yield curve control efforts, the yield on the 30-year U.S. treasury bond is the highest since 2003!

U.S. 2-Year, 10-Year, and 30-Year Treasury Bond Yields

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Fed Rate Hike Expectations and the 2-Year Treasury Yield

This week's data will also impact the likelihood of further fed funds rate hikes. As you can see below, the market is pricing in at least one more hike this year with a high probability of two. The continual rise in the 2-year note yield is leading this way as well. If we can somehow get a cooler-then-expected PCE and/or a weaker-than-expected jobs report, maybe we'll get some relief in these expectations. For now, though, you can plainly see what's expected, and it's a far cry from the 60% likelihood of no hikes that we saw back in August...which seems like a lifetime ago.

Target Rate Probabilities for the December 2026 Fed Meeting

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Outlook for the Week Ahead

Lastly, we'll need to keep an eye on the Dollar Index this week, as well. It's all the way back to the highs seen last summer, and it looks poised to push through later this week if the data comes in hot. It appears to be in an uptrend of higher highs and higher lows, and if this is the case, then the next higher high targets the 102.50 level.

DXY U.S. Dollar Index Daily Candlestick Chart

Gold and Silver Price Forecast for Q4

So we'll see where this pivotal week takes us. By Friday, the next round of rate hikes may be set in stone and precious metal prices will be falling back toward their June/July lows. However, there remains the possibility that the data will come in cool and weak, leading to reduced rate hike expectations and lower bond yields. If this happens, then the lows of the week are likely already in and prices may fully recover their Monday losses.

A pivotal week is on tap, thus this unusual short-term-focused post. Keep an eye on the headlines and the prices, and maybe we'll be able to discern a trend for Q4 by the time we write again next week.