Penultimate Post for 2025: Precious Metals Prices

There are just two weeks remaining in 2025, and it has been quite a year. While it will soon be time for parties and reflection, the calendar suggests there's still time for some upside in the precious metals and mining shares. 

Gold & Silver Shock the Market

Let's start this week with a look back. The year 2024 ended with a gain of over 27% in the gold price. As the chart below shows, gains of that magnitude have typically been followed by smaller gains or losses in the next year. 

But not this year! In fact, as I type this on December 15, the gold price is up 65.8% year-to-date with the silver price up an astonishing 120%. Holy smokes! And market history would suggest that we may not be quite done yet. 

Seasonality + Fundamentals Align

Though the week ahead will be volatile, with a full slate of U.S. economic data and NYSE monthly option expirations, the calendar is about to flip to what is typically the strongest period of the year for precious metal and mining share prices. This seasonality will soon be reflected in higher prices, and it typically begins sometime after December 20. Will we see this play out again this year? 

To answer my own question...Yes, I believe we will see this play out again this year and into next. Why? Where do I start? 

That's twelve reasons without breaking a sweat! And I could go on, too! 

So what about the mining shares? For now, they seem a little stuck as mid-December usually brings the peak of tax-loss selling season. Now, maybe investors and traders don't have as many losses as usual this year, but that doesn't impact the calendar and the HFT computers. However, we've surely all seen massive outperformance and rallies in the shares in the weeks before and after Christmas, so don't be surprised if that happens again this year. 

Miners Poised to Catch Up

And why? Recall that the average selling price for gold miners in Q3 was about $3550/ounce. That's pretty solid. However, the average price for gold thus far in Q4 is about $4150/ounce! That's amazing and it represents a 17% rise over Q3, yet the GDX ETF is trading near where it peaked in October. 

GDX - Vaneck Gold Miners

And the same can be said for the silver miners. The average sale price for their product was $39/ounce in Q3, yet the average price for silver thus far in Q4 is about $54/ounce. That's a gain of 38%, yet the SIL ETF has only just recently broken above its October highs. 

SIL - Gx Silver Miners ETF

So let's see where the final days of 2025 take us. There will surely be volatility this week, but the calendar and the fundamentals suggest that the next leg higher is on tap for late this month and into January. Yes, you should prep for the holidays, but you should prep for the next stage of the precious metal bull market too.