Precious Metal Pressure Point

After a tremendous rally in August, precious metal prices have turned lower again in September and now face an onslaught of news as they attempt to hold the lines of support. As such, you might pay close attention this week and watch to see how events unfold.

Live Gold & Silver Price Charts

Stay updated with the latest movements in the precious metals market by exploring Sprott Money's live gold and silver price charts. Access real-time spot prices, historical chart data, and market trends to make informed investment decisions.

•        Gold Price Chart

•        Silver Price Chart

•        Platinum Spot Price

•        All Precious Metals Price Charts 

Gold Price Outlook Amid Fed Rate Hike Decision

The main event this week will be the September FOMC meeting that's set to conclude on Wednesday with a likely fed funds rate hike, an updated Summary of Economic Projections, and a Kevin Warsh press conference. Will the meeting produce a “dovish hike” or a “hawkish pause”? We'll know more by late Wednesday, but as of Monday, the overwhelming expectation is for a 25 basis point hike in the fed funds rate.

Fed Funds Rate Probability Chart

But that's the only rate over which the Fed has control. The bond market handles everything else, from 90-day T-bills to 30-year bonds, and those rates have all surged higher since the Iran War began on March 1.

• 1-year T-bill: From 3.48% on February 27 to 4.35% today.
• 2-year T-note: From 3.55% on February 27 to 4.66% today.
• 10-year T-note: From 3.96% on February 27 to 5.01% today.
• 30-year T-Bond: From 4.63% on February 27 to 5.35% today.

As you can see above, the yield curve has already shifted about 100 basis points (1.0%) higher since the Iran War began, so what impact does a 0.25% hike in the overnight fed funds rate have? In some sense, the FOMC needs to hike fed funds by 50 or 75 basis points just to “catch up” to the rest of the curve. As such, why should we fear a fed funds hike or two over the coming weeks? We shouldn't.

Much more important in The Big Picture is the curve itself. Again, the Fed only controls the overnight fed funds rate. The market sets all other rates and the market has already spoken. The overriding issue is what happens next as the Iran War spreads to other hotspots in the region.

Oil Prices and Interest Rates Surge on Middle East Conflict

For example, late last week a major drone attack targeted the East-West pipeline of Saudi Arabia. This transit route moved as much as six million barrels of oil per day across the Arabian Peninsula to loading ports on the Red Sea. Early reports indicate that repairs to the pipeline could take months to conclude, and that's without any additional attacks that could only serve to make matters worse. In response, crude oil prices are surging on Monday with WTI crude near $104, the highest level since May 19.

A wider war might lead to even higher crude oil prices and higher interest rates. The U.S. Treasury has just begun a new program of 30-year bond buybacks in an attempt to manage the selloff in bonds and contain long-term interest rates. This is the first step toward overt Yield Curve Control, and any further shift higher in the yield curve will only exacerbate the need for official intervention.

And why must the U.S. work so diligently to contain interest rates? The latest Monthly Statement from the U.S. Treasury reveals the gory details. In August alone, the U.S. spent over $98B in interest payments, bringing the FY26 total to $1.3T. As you can see below, the situation is rapidly moving from untenable to unsustainable.

US Treasury Interest Payments Chart

In the long term, Yield Curve Control applied to out-of-control deficit spending is extraordinarily bullish for the precious metals. However, in the short term, the weeks ahead may prove challenging, and this could provide patient investors an opportunity.

Invest in Physical Gold and Silver

Physical ownership remains one of the most effective ways to diversify your portfolio while helping protect purchasing power during periods of inflation, currency devaluation, and economic uncertainty. Explore our bullion collections:

•        Buy Gold Bullion

•        Buy Silver Bullion

•        Gold Coins

•        Gold Bars

•        Silver Coins

•        Silver Bars

Below are current price charts for gold and silver futures on the COMEX. After the sharp rallies of August, prices are now trending lower again and find themselves on the edge of important support as the week begins. Any sustained drop below $4300 and the 50-day moving average in COMEX gold is likely to bring more selling and even lower prices. The same can be said for $64 and the 50-day moving average in COMEX silver.

Gold Price Chart

Silver Price Chart

In some regards, the song remains the same and the precious metals remain under the same pressure they've endured for over six months. However, just as the Iran War has created conditions for selling and lower prices in 2026, The War is creating conditions for sharply higher prices in the months and years to come. Perhaps this week is just a good time to remind you of that as we stare down the barrel of much higher price volatility in the days ahead. Hang in there and try to keep your focus on the long term.

More Gold & Silver Insights

Explore more insights on precious metals, gold investing, silver markets, inflation, currency trends, and wealth preservation in the Sprott Money Knowledge Centre:

•        Discipline Is Not Enough Without Structure

•        Central Bank Gold Demand Continues