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Respect the Trend: Gold & Silver Price Predictions

balance scale with a golden bear on one side and a golden bull on the other

The trend is your friend until it isn’t.
The rate cut of 50 basis points last week signaled the end of the tightening cycle. Several Fed members have forecast two more rate cuts this year. History shows that when the Fed starts cutting interest rates, it benefits Gold and Silver.
What happens when Quantitative Tightening, or QT, ends? What happens when the Fed reverts to QE?
Weakness in the dollar continues, which also supports the metals.
With this backdrop, it is no wonder that the trend in the metals, especially in Gold, has been more or less straight up for a year now.

Gold price trends

 

Potential Corrections in the Gold Rally

However, nothing goes up in a straight line forever. There will be corrections along the way. This rally since October 2023 is getting long in the tooth. However, that doesn’t rule out a blow-off top to circa $3000 first.
Negative divergences are piling up across multiple timeframes.
It is obvious that sentiment is extremely bullish, which is bearish.
The Bullion Banks have a new record net short position of 258k contracts since records began in 2006. Meanwhile, the money Managers, aka Hedge Funds, now have their biggest long position since “March 2020”. It doesn’t matter until it does.

 

DXY Rebound and its Implications for Gold and Silver

The DXY is staging a rebound in the short term, but I still believe it has a date with 94-92. That said, what happens when the DXY rallies from that low?
In summary, I recommend you respect the trend until it breaks down. A great way to do this is to use trailing stops so that you can continue to participate in the move upwards while protecting the majority of your gains. You can always jump back in if it turns out to be a fake breakdown.

gold price trends

 

Long-Term Outlook for Gold and Silver Prices

Alternatively, just buy the physical metals and stick them in a drawer to gather dust. One thing is for sure, in my opinion: Gold and Silver are going much higher in the next few years and likely beyond. The only trigger that could cause a sharp correction is a stock market crash, and that too is a ‘seeing is believing’ event. It’s not an if but a when. But even when that happens, I expect it to be brief and a final great buying opportunity.
Silver has been lagging Gold for quite some time, but it will ultimately outperform Gold, imho. As with its big brother, I recommend you use trailing stops in Silver too.

gold price trends

 

Conclusion: Respect the Trend and Protect Your Gains

Despite the clouds on the horizon following a long rally, respect the trend until it breaks down. Use trailing stops to protect your gains and stay in this bull market as it continues to rise. Short-term pullbacks and a stock market crash aside, Gold and Silver have a long way to go yet. We could still hit $3000 before a big correction occurs. Silver is likely to go even higher in percentage terms.

If you're looking to protect your wealth and take advantage of the ongoing bull market, now is the perfect time to consider buying precious metals.
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About the Author

David Brady has worked for major banks and corporate multinationals in Europe and the U.S. He has close to thirty years of experience managing multi-billion dollar portfolios including foreign currency, cash, bonds, equities, and commodities. David is also a CFA charter holder since 2004.

Using his extensive experience, he developed his own process utilizing multiple tools such as fundamental analysis, inter-market analysis, positioning, Elliott Wave Theory, sentiment, classical technical analysis, and trends. This approach has improved his forecasting capability, especially when they all point in the same direction.

His track record in forecasting Gold and Silver prices since has made him one of the top analysts in the precious metals sector, widely followed on Twitter and a regular contributor to the Sprott Money Blog.

*The author is not affiliated with, endorsed or sponsored by Sprott Money Ltd. The views and opinions expressed in this material are those of the author or guest speaker, are subject to change and may not necessarily reflect the opinions of Sprott Money Ltd. Sprott Money does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness and reliability of the information or any results from its use.