Shifting Sands of Open Interest: Silver Price Rally

The mainstream media will tell you that silver is in a "speculative bubble". The assumption is that the ongoing rally must be driven by traders of futures contracts in a rush of speculation and greed. But is that truly the case? What does the actual data show? 

It has been quite a rally in price, that much is certain. From June 1, 2025, to the close last Friday, February 13, the price of silver has rallied 135% from $32.98 to $77.40. Along the way, there has been all sorts of analysis of the potential drivers of the rally. The "debasement trade", strong physical demand, and export controls in China have helped spur things along, but in reality, no one factor has been the cause. It's a combination of events that has rallied price.

Silver Price - Daily Candlestick Chart

China Silver Demand And Shanghai Premium Impact

Chief among those has been demand in China, where the Shanghai price has consistently traded with a 10-20% premium to the price in London and New York. The price in Shanghai has fallen backward over the past two weeks, but prior to that drop, we'd written about how the Shanghai price had been leading the "western" price higher in January. 

We all know what has happened since. In just the three trading days of January 30, February 5, and February 12, the silver price fell by a combined $51.80! So did a "bubble" just pop, as the mainstream media has claimed?

COMEX Silver Open Interest And CFTC Data Analysis

As it relates to China, that's hard to quantify since Chinese market data is difficult to find. However, the "bubble" language is driven by western media, and they are primarily referencing the western price. So, is/was there a speculative bubble on COMEX? The data would suggest that the answer is decidedly NO.

Below are CFTC-generated Commitment of Traders reports for COMEX silver. The first thing you should note are the dates and prices of the reports. From top to bottom, the reports range from the end of Q2 2025 to the most recent report that was surveyed last Tuesday, February 10.

Let's first make note of the categories that have remained mostly unchanged as price has rallied 135%. Let's start with the Producer/Merchant category. This is mostly hedging by mining companies, refineries, and bullion dealers, and you can see that the cumulative positions remained stable all through the second half of 2025 before seeing some short-covering thus far in 2026.

Next, look to the far right columns and note the Nonreportable Positions. This is mostly small-time traders along with small family office and hedge funds. Like the P/M category, the gross and net positions have barely budged since the end of Q2 2025. You'd think that if there was a speculative "bubble" in COMEX silver, there would be a large increase over time in the gross and net long position of this category...but, no. There's nothing at all to see here.

To the left of the Nonreportable is the Other Reportables. Note that the positioning of this group has hardly changed over time too. And who are they? Sort of a speculative catch-all, as you can see below from the CFTC:

OK, so if the little guys haven't been driving a bubble in COMEX silver, the only category we have left is Managed Money. Look above and note that this category includes hedge and commodity trading funds. This is a big money category, and since it takes big money to play in and move these markets, surely we'll find evidence of bubble creation here. Right? Right?? Nope. Scroll up and look again. To make it easier, see below:

•           July 1, 2025: Managed Money GROSS long 59,288 contracts and GROSS short 14,301 for a NET long position of 44,987 contracts.

•           September 30, 2025: Managed Money GROSS long 49,927 and GROSS short 14,906 for a NET long position of 34,921 contracts.

•           December 30, 2025: Managed Money GROSS long 29,100 and GROSS short 15,092 for a NET long position of 14,008 contracts.

•           February 10, 2026: Managed Money GROSS long 12,222 and GROSS short 7,653 for a NET long position of just 4,569 contracts.

Managed Money Positioning And Silver Market Outlook

Taken as a whole, the NET long position of the Managed Money category in COMEX silver has declined by nearly 90% since the end of Q2 2025. 90%! That hardly sounds like a bubble to me! I suppose you could state that the total position has been shaken out by 2/3 since the start of 2026, but positions were already in a free fall as 2025 ended. The drop in 2026 just culminated in the first six weeks of the new year.

So where does this leave us? Well, clearly not in "bubble" territory where speculative positioning and cash levels were decimated over the three smashing days of Jan 30, Feb 5, and Feb 12. Instead, it would appear to be quite the opposite. With Managed Money gross and net positions the smallest in years, it would seem the COMEX silver price is ripe for a rally if big speculative money begins to return.

In summary, I believe it would be a mistake to lazily assume that the most recent rally in the silver price was a speculative bubble and that the "popping" of said "bubble" will lead to malaise and stagnant prices for years to come. Instead, speculative positioning suggests that a new surge in price could be just around the corner. All silver needs is a spark to light the fuse, and as we discussed in our 2026 macrocast, there are plenty of sparks possible as the volatile year 2026 progresses.