Silver Prices Test Your Senses - Spot Price Analysis

With silver prices recently making new all-time highs above $50/ounce, there's a lot of talk about whether "this time is different" regarding a top and sharp pull back. To answer the question, let's take a closer look at price history to see if it provides any clues. 

Even if you weren't around in 1980 or 2011, I'm certain you've heard the stories of doom, gloom, and years of despair that followed two failed attempts at $50 silver. I was just 14 years old in 1980 so the action in silver that year wasn't on my radar. However, I lived through 2011 and the desolation that followed so I'm keenly aware of the risks and concerns this time around. As such, the question must be asked: "Is this time different"? 

As with anything, you've got to use all your senses to determine whether or not one thing is different from another. How does it look? How does it feel? How does it sound? For example, using your senses, you can quickly discern a bird from a cow. 

Comparing Silver Price Charts from Key Years

So how is $50 silver in 2025 different from $50 silver in 1980 or 2011? Let's start with how it "looks". As you can see below, the price charts are not identical. In late 1979, the silver price moved from $10 to $48 in less than four months. Even without knowing the Hunt Brothers story, any savvy market observer would not be surprised by what followed as price fell back to $10 over the next two months. 

Silver - Weekly Candlestick Price Chart 

The price action in late 2010 into early 2011 was reminiscent of 1979 but the rally didn't play out as quickly. As you can see below, price moved from $18 to $48 over the course of eight months. However, like 1980, price was back to $26 four months later. 

Silver - Weekly Candlestick Price Chart 

So what about today? Does the current chart of silver look the same as 1980 or 2011? Yes, you can see where price has moved from $34 to $54 in four months and, yes, you can see the sharp pullback of two weeks ago. However, the run up in price is not nearly the same percentage, and at least thus far, the pull back isn’t either. 

Silver - Weekly Candlestick Price Chart 

How Does $50 Silver Feel in 2025?

Next, how does $50 silver in 2025 "feel"? Your Spidey-Sense may be tingling but look around and you'll see all-time highs in nearly every other market from gold to copper to stocks. And let's stop to consider gold here since a large part of the historical moves in silver were related or following the gold price.  

The gold price also peaked in January of 1980 after moving from $35 in 1971. In 2011, silver peaked first before gold hit $1920 in September and then fell sharply backward. Today, gold has made multiple new all-time highs and has nearly doubled in price over the past two years. It, too, has pulled back over the past few weeks but it remains just 7% off its recent highs. 

Gold - Monthly Nearest Candlestick Price Chart 

Now, if we take that same monthly logarithmic chart and apply it to silver, it certainly begins to "feel" like silver has a lot of catching up to do. 

Silver - Monthly Nearest Candlestick Price Chart 

The Sound of the Silver Market: Then and Now

And finally, how does it sound in 2025? What are you hearing? 

In 1980, the Hunt Brothers were taught quite an expensive lesson regarding who's The Boss. At the same time, Fed chair Paul Volcker was in the process of raising interest rates to 15%. The sound you heard back then was gold and silver crashing. 

In 2011, it was discovered that the Fed's initial QE programs had not sparked runaway inflation, and by 2013, the Fed was tightening monetary policy with the total U.S. national debt at "just" $13T. Interest rates and the US$ soon rose, and you once again heard the sound of gold and silver crashing.  

What about 2025? What do you hear? The Fed is now easing monetary policy, and a new Fed chair in 2026 is almost certain to dramatically cut interest rates. Covert or overt Yield Curve Control is on the horizon as the U.S. national debt approaches $40T. Central banks around the world are rapidly accumulating physical gold while physical silver demand outstrips supply at an annualized pace of about 200,000,000 ounces per year. To my ears, all of that certainly sounds different from years past. 

What to Expect for Silver Prices in 2026 and Beyond

With that, let's put it all together.  

The charts reveal that 2025 looks different. It also feels and sounds different As such, we can determine that the result will be different too. The current pull back in the precious metals is simply that—a pull back that leads to price consolidation of the recent gains. Recall below the weekly chart of gold that accompanied last week's post.

Gold - Weekly Nearest Candlestick Price Chart 

When the gold price breaks out again in 2026, it will take the silver price with it. As gold heads to $5000/ounce, silver will move to $60/ounce and beyond. 

So, let's answer the question. Is this time different? Yes, it is! Other than price, there is nothing in 2025 that mirrors 1980 or 2011. As such, we should not expect a washout and desolation in the years ahead. Instead, look for higher prices in 2026 and beyond as The End of The Great Keynesian Experiment rapidly approaches.