Watch The Year-End Silver Price

I know, I know. There are only two weeks remaining in 2024 and you've got the holiday season on your mind. Me too. However, as the year draws to a close, be sure to keep an eye on the silver price, because where it finishes 2024 may have a significant impact on where it heads in 2025.

Buy Silver Before Year-End

Frankly, it's hard to believe that 2024 is almost over. It seems like just yesterday the year began with silver below $24/ounce and the prospects for the year ahead looking OK but not too crazy. We posted our annual forecast here at Sprott Money on January 9 and expected a 10-15% gain for silver in 2024 with a close near $27.

As I type on December 16, the spot price of silver is near $30.50. If I'm going to be off by $3, I'd rather be on the low side! If we hold this level through New Year's Eve, silver will post a nearly 30% gain on the year. That's a solid year, the best since 2020, and far better than the previous three. (The chart below updated as of October 4.)

Silver Price Performance 

How Silver Price Trends Impact 2025

But what if the silver price rallies a little over the next two weeks? What might be the importance and significance of finishing the year near $32 or $33? For that answer, let's not check the daily or the weekly charts. Instead, let's consult the longest-term chart we have—the annual chart.

First, what's the importance of the longer charts? While traders may concern themselves with swings and pivots off the hourly and daily charts, long-term investors are more apt to consult the long-term charts. It's the monthly and quarterly where secular trends are revealed.

For example, the gold price closed above $2000 on its monthly chart in November 2023. It then closed above $2000 on the quarterly chart on March 31 of this year. What has happened since? Just a consistent stream of investment lifting the price as high as $2800 by late October.

Silver's All-Time Highs and Annual Closing Trends

With this in mind, let's check the chart of silver. As you likely know, the silver price is nowhere close to its all-time highs of near $50, seen in 1980 and again in 2011. As such, the monthly and quarterly charts are still painted with candles that reach higher levels than where we are at present.

Silver - Monthly Nearest Candlestick Chart

But do you see those little blue arrows? They point at December 1979 and December 2010—the year-end closes. Now let's make this easier and cram all those monthly candles into annual candles. When we do, what do we see? (Major thanks to Chris Vermeulen for this chart!)

Silver Futures 

What you should notice is that the highest ever annual close for the silver price is $30.85. This level was attained on Dec. 31, 2010, and it beat the previous annual closing high of $28.80 seen on Dec. 31, 1979. When Chris printed this chart for me last week, the spot silver price was $31.71, but it has since been washed backward to about $30.50 and just below that closing high of 2010.

Why Silver Could Breakout in 2024

The major question for the remainder of 2024 is this: Will the spot silver price exceed again, and close above, that 2010 price? A follow-up question: What will be the significance if that occurs?

In looking ahead to 2025, those are very important questions. If the silver price finishes 2024 well off its highs and under $30, the bears and the banks will be able to claim that 2024 was no different than other years where price had rallied. It was a nice rally but nothing of long-term significance had taken place. However, if the silver price rallies over the next two weeks and manages to finish the year above $30.85, a different picture will emerge. And if the breakout is truly notable—let's say silver finishes the year at $32 or $33—long-term investors will surely notice.

So sit back, enjoy the holidays, and take a few days off. However, be sure to check in on the silver price every now and then. If you see a strong close to the year, you might need to adjust your plans and price forecasts for 2025.

Buy gold and buy silver today to secure your financial future.