Craig Hemke (00:00)
Greetings once again from SprottMoney at SprottMoney.com. We have reached now the month of February. What a month of January we had. What's February got in store for us? Well, we're going to talk about that. We always lead off the month with your precious metals projections. We're going to try to project February. I'm your host, Craig Hemke. And joining us as usual is my old friend, Chris Vermeulen of the technicaltraders.com. Chris, you're looking good, brother.
Chris Vermeulen (00:25)
Hey, thanks for having me. Yeah, always a pleasure and definitely interesting price action in the metal space. Holy cow.
Craig Hemke (00:32)
crazy month of January. ⁓ Anyway, we'll begin to look ahead. And again, now we're into February. So it is definitely tax planning season, which is, you know, I'm something I know everybody looks forward to. But anyway, if you want an RRSP account in Canada or an IRA in the States, Sprott Money can help you ⁓ save for your retirement in physical precious metal. So go to SprottMoney.com.
or give them a call at 888-861-0775. They will help you out. And again, why save in ⁓ constantly depreciating and devaluing Canadian dollars and US dollars when you can save for retirement and precious metal? Sounds like good idea to me. Again, SprottMoney.com for all your precious metal needs. Chris, speaking of the precious metals, we had this fantastic year in 2025.
And it was like everybody read the press clippings on new year's day and went, I got to get into this. we just kind of almost one of those rhino horn up deals in the precious metals. Then that party came to a halt ⁓ last Friday. So where your focus has always been best asset now ⁓ and trying to position yourself and your subscribers into that best asset. Now, what is the best it now as February begins?
Chris Vermeulen (01:56)
Yeah, well, there's definitely a lot going on. It is tough to actually pick the best asset right now because it doesn't feel like anything is like on the verge of a big move. feel like we've stock market has been on a tear. It's slowing down. showing, you know, some mixed signals. It's really grinding its way higher here. Precious metals have had a huge move and now they've, you know, have they turned a corner? That's the big question. You know, is looking great up until it doesn't one bar completely changes the picture.
So when we look at things, the best assets still are US equities and still precious metals. But there's a lot of damage done to the charts, which we can dive into and cover all of that here. So let me grab my and my charts and we can go through that. Let's take a look.
Craig Hemke (02:41)
Yeah, on that daily chart, as you pull it up, we've had multiple instances over the last two years of pulling back to the 50 day and even even the 20 day of support. What do you think?
Chris Vermeulen (02:54)
Yeah, you want to touch on equities first? You want to touch on the share? Yeah, yeah, no, no problem. Well, let's take a look at the S &P 500. If we take a look at this, the S &P, obviously it's pretty noisy. It's pretty choppy. It's been chattering around. People are nervous, you know, in the equity space. Is it going to stall out? Are we going to see it pop and expand? Who knows what new policies are going to kick into place and what kind of news is coming?
Craig Hemke (02:56)
⁓ I'm sure wherever you want to go. I figured that was the chart you were pulling up. I apologize.
Chris Vermeulen (03:21)
But we've definitely been seeing this space show a lot of volatility. People have waves of buying and selling. think a lot of money has been moving and chasing the best asset now, which has been precious metals up to this point. So from a longer term standpoint, the S &P 500 and the NASDAQ are both in a long term uptrend. They're still in a short term uptrend. They're just kind of neandering and grinding their way higher. But precious metals is definitely where the excitement is. When we look over at gold. This chart will load here.
If we take a look over at gold, we've got obviously this huge swan dive and you and I have kind of covered this as we've we've gone through things before. Now, gold has been making, as you pointed out, a series going back several years. Every rally is about 20 percent. And so we've seen that every every stair step has been around 20 or more percent. We just had another big pop and move.
And what's really interesting is whenever we have a measured move, like over here, there was a measured move that I had using Fibonacci extension. We got into it extra little side discretionary trade. We played the breakout. We hit the Fibonacci target. And then once you hit a hundred percent measured move, price can go parabolic after that. So it did, it popped. Everybody had to pile in and then the market just shook the heck out of everybody and it consolidated.
So we had the same move over here. We had this breakout. We got long for another like bonus kind of side trade in gold. We had a Fibonacci target hit at 5,200. We closed out the trade. Then it went parabolic for a session and a half after everybody piled in. And now it's shaking things out. And silver has done the exact same thing. We had a target at 106 for silver. So let's just take a look at silver. Our Fibonacci target was 106.
Once 106 get hit, hit, we go into euphoric kind of, you know, bubble mode. And so same as what gold did, it hit that phase and now everybody's getting shaken up. And all of this is stuff that you and I have covered many times. If we go back and look at this, this phase, you get these blow off moves from a stage analysis. But when you look at it from an emotional standpoint, it is a euphoric phase. was at the V Rick when 106 was broken and I was talking about how expected to
Craig Hemke (05:24)
for sure.
Chris Vermeulen (05:38)
pop and blow to potentially 120, 130, 140 for silver. And we saw that as soon as it broke 106, everybody went into a feeding frenzy. The energy was, was pretty epic, but everybody thinks they're going to be rich. They're a genius. know what they're doing right near a peak. And then of course you get the rug gets pulled out. Right? So that's the phase that we just went through. Now, the big question, this is the big question is do metals trade sideways? Has the top been put in? And then we actually go into a financial reset.
Craig Hemke (05:56)
Yeah.
Chris Vermeulen (06:07)
with the equities market, with the economy, or is this really just a quick sharp pullback within a bull market for metals and we still have higher to go? And yeah, and I can argue both. Obviously it's a kind of a coin toss. It comes down to managing your positions. We closed out a huge chunk of our physical metal positions at 113 for silver, at about 5300 for gold on the Friday or the Thursday on the 28th, whatever day that was. ⁓
Craig Hemke (06:15)
Yep, that's the question.
Wednesday.
Chris Vermeulen (06:36)
We closed out there and we still hold a balance of our position. And now we need to see how this is going to unfold. And when we look at some comparison charts, actually have this really interesting chart here of silver. Take a look at this. So this is the weekly chart of silver 2026 at the top as of like last night. And the bottom one is 2011, like the rally up the pauses, even this little hiccup down here in 2011, very similar to this hiccup. And then you go into this parabolic phase.
Craig Hemke (06:40)
Thank
Chris Vermeulen (07:06)
And then we had a 37 % correction just last week and we had a 36, 34 % correction in 2011. So the big question is how is this going to unfold? This is not new. A lot of people, you know, so many people always blame it on manipulation. They're like, they pulled the rug out there. They're getting everybody. But this is the exact same type of price action we see in meme stocks. It's a herd psychology. People pile in. They're also the first ones to eject and it creates these, these volatile prices. whether it's
think it's manipulation or not, either way, this is how price almost always moves when we get into a euphoric phase. It's about how do you manage it and identify it? Not so much who's doing it, right? And so right now the big question, Craig, is like, is it going to take several months for silver to clod's way back? Is silver going to bounce very quickly, maybe in a few days? We don't know. And this is why it's important to protect your capital so it's always working for you, meaning
If price sells off and it doesn't start to go up, generally, we don't want to hold it because it could go sideways for months, could go sideways for years. So that's the big phase we're in right now is how is this market going to rebound from this layer? This level? Sorry, I'm struggling with a sore throat and a cold this week, but where are these? know, gold is going to bounce back as well and trimming off some positions. A lot of damage was done. Do I think silver could hit all time highs and go higher? I do. I think it could.
But I'm also going to be looking to trim off positions as it works its way back up to 94, 99. There's a few levels in here. I'll be looking at trimming and lightening my position because I do believe most of the move is over. And, you know, a lot of people are counting on, you know, bad news, big things happening and precious metals are going to explode. And this is just the beginning. I kind of see it the other way. I hate to put doubts to the fire, but you know how it is. It's usually by the rumor, sell the news. Well,
Craig Hemke (08:57)
dumb. Sure.
Yeah.
Chris Vermeulen (09:02)
I think we all know everything
is out of control. Nothing makes sense. People don't trust government systems and all that stuff. That's why metals are going up. It's already pricing the chaos. The problems ends like same with good earnings, right? Price rallies into good earnings. They could have killer earnings and then the stock market falls or the stock price because it's already been priced in. So I think precious metals are pricing this in and there's another really interesting chart here. If we compare gold
And this one, don't think a lot of people have picked up on this, which is if we look at gold and silver.
And let's go back to 2011.
way back here. Okay, so what's interesting here is if we go back and look at 2011, I'll just go right over here. And we zoom in the top chart is gold. The bottom chart is is silver. And what is interesting here is you'll notice silver peaked out like six months before gold did right. Silver was this euphoric phase of crash and it struggled.
And it slowly clawed some of its gains back, but it never did go to all time highs. But gold is the, is the global safe haven. That's where people go to actually kind of protect their capital. Big, big investors kind of go there because it's more stable. It's more likely to go up. Silver is definitely more speculative. And so while I think silver could claw its way back and regain some of what it's, it's, it's, it's lost recently. I think gold is actually going to rise from the ashes and be the,
Craig Hemke (10:12)
Yep. Right.
Chris Vermeulen (10:38)
bigger play and actually have more upside. And so gold, do think could get up to like 6000 silver might actually really struggle. I really just want to see silver bounce back up towards 94 99 and I'll be looking to trim off and move moving out of gold out of silver. And I'll also sell some gold. But I do think gold has potential to keep going higher while silver struggles. So this is like the big disconnect, right? Everybody just chase silver. I feel like it's kind of blown up. I
I feel like people haven't actually chased gold yet. I think gold is actually just starting. It still might take weeks, but I think it's going to eventually push higher. And then people will all pile into gold and chase it and silver will kind of be left behind like we saw in 2011. So there's a lot of different scenarios. It really just comes down to, we have to let the price charts paint the picture. We follow the trends and manage our positions to how we think things are unfolding, right?
Craig Hemke (11:31)
I think those are great analogies. ⁓ Certainly from a price standpoint, that's all stuff. we, most of us, we all lived through that back in 2011. You know, so I remember that well from 48 down to, you know, the end of the twenties, then back. was, silver was still in the high thirties and low forties into 2012. Before, you know, we got into kind of a tight money regime and there's a bunch of stuff going on with the Fed and people remember operation twist and all these other things. ⁓ So the.
Chris Vermeulen (11:33)
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yep.
Craig Hemke (12:00)
Fundamentally, we'll see if fundamentally it works out different this time 14 years later, but the charts are certainly analogous. ⁓ Chris, what would you be looking for? I mean, I think what most people are worried, everybody's optimistic, you know, and okay, for a number of reasons, but what would you watch in the short term to the downside? you know, I mentioned earlier when you're pulling up a chart about the 20 day and the 50 day, ⁓ price has in these rallies fallen back toward those
moving averages, multiple occasions, even falling briefly below. You could see tapping the 50 day just yesterday in both gold and silver, and then bouncing today as we record this on the third. a big violation of those really set off alarm bells, or what would be something that you'd be like, oh boy, what we saw last Friday was just stage one.
Chris Vermeulen (12:49)
There's.
Yeah, you bring up some really good points, Craig. So this is a very big inflection point where both gold and silver have pulled down. So we could look at it a few ways. Obviously there was a big consolidation here, a support level, which is going to naturally act as a, know, when you come back down to it, it's going to act as support, which it has. We have the 50 day, which is acting as support as you mentioned. We have a couple other interesting things. If we were to do a Fibonacci retracement from this last platform before it took off.
We can go down from this low up to the reason high carry that forward and the sweet spot. The bullish pullback for a stock or anything is between this purple and the pink line. This is the between the 50 and 38. That is a bullish. If you find support there, usually we're going to go up and hit all time like higher highs. The problem is it didn't. And in fact, it's moved down to the lower range. If you hit the 618 now big damage is done.
And there's a few reasons for that. It kills a lot of the momentum. But if we actually put a Fibonacci extension telling us where the upside target is, we go from the same low, we go up to this high, and then we come down to this low right here. And if we carry this forward, you'll notice the 618, which is usually my first target, ends up being a double top.
So now you're not only running into a previous high, but you're running into a Fibonacci level where there's invisible resistance. It's just where momentum is naturally going to run out of steam anyway. So that's never a good sign. And that's why I'm a little more bearish on silver where if know, silver can work its way up to regain a chunk of this. I want to get out. I want to start trimming off and selling a bunch. The other way we could look at it a third way is based on this drop using a Fibonacci retracement telling where price
Craig Hemke (14:16)
Double top.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Chris Vermeulen (14:45)
could retrace so it fell all the way down here. And the retrace, depending where price goes, this is kind of the sweet spot. If we're in a new strong downtrend, this is where it's gonna find resistance and then go lower. And if it goes even higher,
Craig Hemke (14:58)
peak out. Yeah. What level is that?
What is that Chris? can't quite see that.
Chris Vermeulen (15:02)
It's 90, between 91 and $97. So, you know, we could, we could see silver from where it is right now. We could see it run another 10 or 12%, which obviously is half of the drop. That'll bring us into the purple line, which is a 50 % retracement. And so if you see price get to 91, you see it get to 97 or higher from a risk and position standpoint, I would be pretty inclined to start selling off some metals. If you're a shorter term.
Craig Hemke (15:11)
Mm-hmm.
Chris Vermeulen (15:30)
precious metals traders. know some people just want to hold forever. People are adding here, but for my strategy, because I believe when we go into one of these major, major market tops, ⁓ I'll just go to the bigger picture. As you know, Craig, after a huge peak, you can go dormant for a decade, right? And while nobody's thinking wants that or thinks it's going to happen, it's usually when you don't think about it or no one's thinking about it is when it is going to happen. Like right when people bought here,
They didn't realize they're in for a real waste of time, right? Before the next big move happened. So that is what I see. I see the end of this super cycle, everything that is about to unfold in the news and the economy, I think is has or is being priced into metals already. And the last thing I think you want to do is kind of, you know, as a short-term trader, this is for short-term is to hold it because I think we could see a very big pullback. When we look at this move for silver, we could easily argue.
based on where it's gone, we could see silver back down to 70. We can see it back down to 58. It kind of already did come down to that 70 range, which is absolutely crazy. It felt like 42 % from the peak. But I believe that was more of a herd mass kind of exodus at the same time. I believe price, even if it bounces, I think will fade back down to that 70, maybe the 58 level, maybe even all the way back down to 50 and flirt around that level. So I think there's some pretty good downside still.
But it's not the downside I'm worried about. It's more so the time, right? I don't want to hold onto something for three, five years or longer when I could go into a currency or I could go into the stock market or play inverse ETFs to profit from things falling. So that's the big question. And gold is very similar when we look at that. I think gold has more of bullish bias as you and I ⁓ kind of touched on a minute ago. It could easily continue to move higher because it's more of a defensive play. It's more stable.
So bigger money around the world tends to kind of goes to gold and then sticks there. It's not like, you know, looking for quick gains like silver, the way silver moves. ⁓ So overall, I do think I think gold could easily get back up, hit all time highs while silver flounders and regain recoup some of what its losses are.
Craig Hemke (17:43)
Everybody pulls their hair out. Gold's at $6,000 and silver's still not back to, you know, you can see that coming.
Chris Vermeulen (17:48)
Yeah, exactly.
It's interesting because when we look at the 30 minute chart, I have this this short term tool that shows us when you know, metals and assets get oversold is lime green is saying things pulled back too quick, too fast. And it's oversold and we're going to see some bounce. saw that in gold just you know, a session ago, we saw the same thing in silver. And ⁓ you know, now they're trying to get a little bit of a bounce. And what's really interesting is if we take a look at this other chart, this is something I think a lot of people don't
don't realize. And so this is a layered chart. We have the S &P 500 at the top, then gold, silver, Bitcoin, and the dollar index. And this is why I'm you and I talk about this and why I try and share it in a lot of places is when the economy turns a corner, economy is weakening, stock market is in a bear market. There's mass kind of selling everybody is in a fearful mode. They're not accumulating anymore. They're not putting money in there. They're naturally pulling money out of the markets.
And when the world is kind of pulling money out of everything, you'll notice everything goes down. The stock market fell on that big day. It fell 1.2 or 1.8%. Gold fell like 8%. This is just in the morning of that session. This is a 10 minute chart. Bitcoin fell 4%, silver 12 % and the dollar went up. And so my whole strategy of asset revesting is to reinvest our capital in an asset that is going to hold value or pay us a return. And so that's my whole theory is if
If we're seeing everything go down, sometimes one of the best positions, Greg, to me, and a lot of people don't want to accept this is to move into a cash position and hold the cash in a currency that hopefully will go up in value. And believe it or not, the dollar I think has like 15 to 17 % upside. If you're a Canadian holder, Canadian investor, instead of holding Canadian dollars, you can see the dollar rally like 15 to 17%.
while the stock market sells off potentially in the next year. That's a pretty good return for sitting in cash. And then when you're done, you come back into the Canadian currency and you got a whole lot more money. So this is the big thing. So many people diversify and they hold all kinds of stuff, sectors, stocks, commodities, and they're like, I'm diversified. I'm like, this is exactly what happens. This was a one-day pullback. Imagine when you get into a stage four decline and the stock market goes down for eight months, right? It's not very fun.
Craig Hemke (20:09)
right
Chris Vermeulen (20:11)
unless you're on the right side of it or you're on the sidelines watching everybody take a beating knowing you can buy back at a lower price. So this is why it's so important to manage positions, not fall in love with an asset and to step aside when it's not favorable. And one of the hardest things was actually selling our gold and silver physical positions. ⁓ You know, just just last week.
And, you know, even members of the newsletter, everybody's commenting is like, I feel naked because we've owned precious metals for like decades, right? I think the last the last purchase was the 2020 covid crash. And then I bought it on twenty nineteen when metals broke into a new bull market. And so now we all feel really naked. like, we just sold our protection. We sold our metals. It's like we lost a child because we have these physical, know, these physical things forever. ⁓
But you know that it was really difficult, but I think there's times you need to do that. And I think there's going to be huge opportunity to buy back gold and silver potentially in a few months, potentially in a year or two where you can load the boat for the next big move, which will be similar to like 2008 where gold found a bottom silver found a bottom miners found a bottom and then it's off to the races and that'll be I'm I'm excited for that because I believe the easy money was just made in metals. But once we have this correction, it's going to be like all in in metals miners.
And then I think we're gonna see them rally for many, years. And I think it'll be way bigger gains than what we've just seen right now. So I'm really excited about it.
Craig Hemke (21:38)
Chris, where do people find your work if they want to know more?
Chris Vermeulen (21:42)
Yeah, the best just go to my website, thetechnicaltraders.com or go to my YouTube channel, the technical traders and I share my daily analysis. ⁓ I really just manage my own portfolio and people copy the trades that I do. So we just navigate in and out of these markets and have five to 12 ETF trades a year. Very simple, super educational. We do live mentoring every month, twice a month. And yeah, it's just good overall.
calm way to attack the markets. I don't get caught up in the news. I don't get caught in the media and fundamentals and all of that stuff. I just really follow price. And, you know, I was talking with David Rosenberg. We were on stage in VRIC and it's funny. gave my analysis, you know, summarize it in a minute of everything going on. And then, you know, he turns around. He's like, I, I agree with everything Chris just said. And then he goes on forever with all the fundamental stuff, but the charts come to the exact same conclusion in minutes. Right. So
Craig Hemke (22:27)
You
I to meddle for second longer.
It's funny. Well, brother, ⁓ gosh, we, I would, if anybody could go back and watch what we discussed last month, and we talked about a lot of this stuff, the things that are really primed to take off and they did. And now it makes me wonder by the time we do another one of these recordings in early March, where the heck we're going to be then it's going to be an interesting month, brother. look forward to ⁓ visiting with you again in a few weeks.
Chris Vermeulen (22:38)
Yeah.
That's going to be good. Yeah.
Yeah, thanks, Greg. Always a pleasure and take care.
Craig Hemke (23:05)
We're not done here with February, we're far from it. So make sure you hit the like or the subscribe button on whatever channel you've been watching because we'll have Ask the Expert, we'll have the monthly wrap up, all kinds of stuff over the course of the rest of this month. So keep an eye on this channel, more to come. But thank you to Chris for giving us our precious metals projections for the month of February.
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