Craig Hemke (00:00.126)
Hello again from Sprott Money, SprottMoney.com. We have reached the end of March and it's time to wrap up the month. I'm your host, Craig Hempke and joining me is my old friend, Joe Mazumdar of ExplorationInsights.com. Great newsletter regarding the mining industry and a perfect guest for the month of March. Joe, good to see you.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (00:47.409)
Thanks a lot, Craig. Thanks for the invite.
Craig Hemke (00:50.03)
It has been quite the month. We started this month looking pretty good. Gold was back to 5,400. The mining shares at GDX went out at their all-time highs back on February 27th. We were cooking. The month of February has brought us a bunch of surprises. Now the calendar is going to keep moving on. So let's start by reminding everybody that it's not only is March almost over, it's almost April.
time to do your taxes if you haven't already. If you're looking to fund an IRA or an RRSP account up in Canada, Sprott Money can help you with that. Get some physical metal, a little cheaper than it was a month ago. Hold it in your IRA, physical metal. can do that. Contact SprottMoney.com or give them a call at 888-861-0775. They can help you out. Like I said, it's less expensive.
on a dollar standpoint, Canadian dollar standpoint, there was a month ago, we were $5,400, GDX was 116, 18, something like that. Now we're $4,400 and GDX is 83. Now, I think we all know we can lay that at the feet of the war that started that weekend, just as March was beginning. We can talk about, obviously that's gonna be a big focus of discussion in April. But I wanted to bring Joe on for a number of reasons. One,
to get his thoughts on everything else and how this all factors into the mining sector and then kind of talk about the shares specifically. So Joe, it's been quite a month, but you have followed this industry for so long. You're thinking on a lot more levels than just, know, PE ratios and RSIs and 200 day moving averages and stuff like that. As this month has gone on,
what has entered your mind and what will you be watching now going forward?
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (02:49.457)
I mean, like you said, Craig, that's an understatement and this has been an interesting month. And we saw that evolve from like basically through PDAAC. So pre PDAAC, PDAAC and then post PDAAC. I sort of divided up that time for my subscribers. So by late February, I mean, we had no idea. I mean, I had no idea that this was going to happen with the US Israel conflict with Iran. I mean, there were threats.
And then the state of union address didn't really talk about Iran. So I think everybody was a bit caught by surprise, even though some pundits will say that they warned us. Most of the market was, was unaware. And then before pre-PDAC, pre-PDAC, just got to get a, like, like you were trying to build that up. like we saw like, what Wheaton precious do, like a $4.3 billion stream on 33.75 % of the silver that comes out of Antimina.
Craig Hemke (03:31.502)
you
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (03:49.393)
That was a $4.3 billion stream done. And around that time, Silver was around $90. And they got that from BHP. And that was five times more expensive than the same 33.75 % stream that they did back, I believe, in 2015 or something like that when they bought it off of Glencore. So that's how much that market has changed. And that's where we were heading into PDAC with that sort of
You know, at the Metals Investment Forum, were 63 companies. That's the most they ever got. That was like a 70 % increase versus the same period last year. 147 % increase in attendance. So the retail sector was there. Industry was there. Generalists were coming in. You know, in January and February, we had $4.7 billion raised in financing, which was about three times as much as was raised over the same period last year. So...
all of that momentum going into PDAC, you know, very strong. And then on the Sunday, I don't know why your US administration likes to do this on the weekends, but it hit on the Sunday and then people were just still absorbing it. You know, we were seeing some &A Discovery Silver, Bot Kid Creek. Thankfully on our side, we had Arizona Sonora get bought by Hudbay, which was I believe on the Tuesday or Wednesday.
Craig Hemke (04:52.078)
You
Craig Hemke (05:00.878)
Yep.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (05:15.449)
So we did get some news because it was sort of like the deal had been done and then it gets announced. But you you had all the creeping nationalism, Ghana royalties, had Burkina Faso looking for more stakes in gold mines and stuff like that. And then this hit the fan. And you know, then we are all talking about oil and gas because we weren't talking about that for the longest time. But then...
We have problems with other things that come out of the Middle East like sulfur, agricultural products like phosphate, things like that. And then the ramifications of that. And one of them is definitely like the cost of diesel. And so if you had to boil that down into who gets impacted by that, that would be operators.
Craig Hemke (06:00.024)
Yep.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (06:06.961)
large open pit mines that are in remote locations. So not only are they running their diesel trucks with diesel with no chance of electrification, but also they're probably running backup generators on their plants as well, you know, with diesel or heavy fuel oil, something like that. So those companies, their costs start escalating depending on how much they hedged.
And we'll find that out a little bit in Q1, the Q1 results, to see where that's heading. But definitely, if you have a company like that with an asset like that, that's something you want to look at. Their margins will compress based on the diesel thing. The other problem would be if, like, positive, maybe on nickel, is a lot of the sulfur, like I said, comes out of the Straits of Hormuz. I think 70 % of the sulfur, like,
Indonesia is the largest producer of nickel globally and they produce it from these laterite deposits. They're enriched so you have these you know very humid environments, tropical environments and then they produce these laterite soil profiles and then the nickel gets enriched in that. But to get the nickel out you need this high pressure acid leaching which they call HPAL.
That requires a lot of sulfuric acid, which obviously requires a lot of sulfur. Most of that sulfur comes from the Middle East. So that might be a constraint on nickel production in the near term. The other thing would be the acid used in the Central African Copper Belt to leach copper. So you have oxide transitional stuff, enriched copper ores that are still being leached in Central African Copper Belt.
First Quantum is fine because First Quantum has a smelter there and so that smelter produces its own acid and they can use that acid on their own projects. But everybody else gets their acid from the straights and hormones. I think it's almost 90 % comes from there. And so that might be an issue with any SXCW produced copper cathode from the Central African Copper Belt during this time.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (08:29.817)
way of knowing when this is going to end just like we had no way of knowing when this began. But right now people are looking, you know, not like this is going to end tomorrow. It's probably going to take several months. And then on the gold side, you know, we've seen, you know, the drop in gold price and silver because it's more levered, mostly because people don't see the probability of another rate cut anytime soon.
Craig Hemke (08:41.283)
Right.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (08:58.957)
And so gold, especially with the US North American investors, they look at the trend of real rates. It's not the absolute, it's the trend. And so if the trend is that rates are not going down anytime soon, and they might be going up, gold has no yield. You don't get anything for holding gold. You want the price to go up. And if you can get a higher rate of return,
Craig Hemke (09:05.39)
Thank
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (09:26.597)
from bonds and treasuries that are going up, then that's where a lot of people are gonna put their money. And so that, because it's North American, bleeds into equities, because then the equities are the more levered play that you're selling. So we were seeing two to three times leverage from the GDX chain to the gold price when it was going up. Now we're gonna see that potential fame going down. And then silver, that's the same thing on steroids.
Craig Hemke (09:40.579)
Yep.
and
Craig Hemke (09:49.326)
that
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (09:56.765)
But for my vantage point, if I pick the right companies that can access capital, because the solar price is still pretty good for them and the gold price is still good for a lot of gold development projects, it's just, are they the top tier ones? Are they the ones that are going to get taken out? So like in Arizona, Sonora, the Cactus project in terms of copper producing cathode, domestic
Production of cathode doesn't have to go overseas to be smelted. You know, that's a unique project in a unique environment You know that where the u.s. Wants more domestic production of critical minerals and cut one of them So if you've got one of those, know, wouldn't sell that But if you have one that's highly marginal that went up because the gold price went up And it's remote requires
You know, it's a big open pit in the middle of nowhere. That might be harder right now in terms of, especially if it's in production. The development stories take a while to embed the higher costs. So they don't do a technical report every 30 minutes. So they'll do one and they might do another one in 12 months or longer, depending on what it is. And that's when they up.
date, the prices, but they wouldn't update it on spot. They might update it on the three year average. So you might get two years of 60 to $70 oil before you take something higher. So, and in terms of the expiration is it's mostly financing risk. So what I saw Craig in the last couple of weeks is I saw one company, Grassroots Explorer Prospect Generator, Hybrid Southwest US
Craig Hemke (11:40.066)
Yeah.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (11:52.337)
focused on low sulfidation epithermal projects. Their initial private placement was done at a 15 % discount. By the time they closed it, they managed to get the same price. They didn't issue any warrants. They even got upsized. And in the end, it was at a 30 % premium. Yeah. So those are the kind of companies you want to have.
Craig Hemke (12:15.714)
Holy cow.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (12:20.209)
Another company basically got offered a private placement by a group and they quoted a price, the company said okay, and then they saw what their share price was doing and then these people balked and then the company just canceled it. They didn't really need the money. It's just because they were offering, they were willing to take it, but if there's no offer, they weren't gonna chase that.
And the other one you got to watch in terms of placement is how many of these guys that are coming in right now going forward are strategic holders because strategic holders can think longer term. And so they might not let the current environment bother them as much. And so we had a company that raised 50 million US. 70 % of that is held by strategic and insiders.
So I don't see much risk in that one closing. But if you have a company, and this is what I've told people, is to look at the companies in your portfolio, check their working capital, check their burn rate, and get an idea how long that they can go and are their catalysts funded. Because if their catalysts are funded and there's a significant catalyst coming up and the environment switches, they'll be able to raise potentially. But we don't know like
The next period of raising will probably be around the end of summer into the Colorado Gold Shows and things like that. You want to make sure they can at least make it to that.
Craig Hemke (13:52.77)
Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah. We don't want to get back into a period where it's, you know, you can't raise money or you're doing it at such a dilutive level that it just wipes you out.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (14:05.721)
Yeah, well most companies now have roved more than they've needed, which is good. So a lot of the companies we have have raised almost two years of capital so that they can ride this out. But yeah, in a much different environment. They've raised that, you know, higher prices. They're probably trading below that. Are the people that got into that private placement selling? Yes, maybe some of them. You know, but
Craig Hemke (14:07.757)
Hmm
Craig Hemke (14:11.15)
for a while.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (14:35.301)
You know, the mark to market really of this price right now is when they have to go to the market and ask them for money. And if they don't have to, you know, they potentially can it out.
Craig Hemke (14:45.548)
Yeah. Yeah. Joe, just in general, cause I know, a lot of folks that watch these podcasts or invest in the sector, you know, use the bigger mining shares, the bigger companies, the producers as that leverage that you talked about to the gold price, you know, make an electric fiat. And we've all done pretty well the last couple of years, but we've had this significant pullback. Like you said, it was.
two or three times up on the upside and now two or three to the downside. Can you speak just in kind of generalities to the margin squeeze and whether then that justifies this, don't know, the Agnico Eagle, for example, to come from 250 to 180. So obviously what you're selling at has come down considerably. What it's costing to produce has gone up considerably and so you've squeezed.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (15:32.165)
Yep.
Craig Hemke (15:45.494)
not speaking about them specifically, but just in general for the industry, is this an appropriate pullback considering the drop in price and the rise in energy costs? Or is at some point here, does it become to look like it's a bargain, like it's an overreaction?
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (16:01.393)
Yeah, I mean, the gold price is still in a good spot for a lot of companies. mean, the energy prices have gone up, but I mean, if you want to get intimate with your investment, you can try and find out what their diesel and natural gas exposure is and how much they've actually hedged. You know, with your underlying thesis is how long do you think this disruption is going to happen for? I mean, it's not going to be forever, but is it a year? Is it six months? And how long have they mitigated that risk?
Craig Hemke (16:05.581)
Right.
Craig Hemke (16:31.63)
Yeah.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (16:32.079)
So there might be some bargains here for sure. But I think some of the valuation drops is related to maybe that's the only thing people have made money off of and now they're looking for capital. And so they're selling the only thing that's actually made the money. And now they're using that money to get out of other positions or doing something else. So I can see that. And then when people see something go down, they automatic selling.
Craig Hemke (16:49.006)
Yeah.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (17:01.509)
You know, they got these stop cells going boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. And they're not even reacting mentally. It's just the trades in. And so that can give you this escalation of selling for no reason. And then if you're like a top tier company, you may fall just like all the other guys when you probably shouldn't be falling as much. Those are the ones you want to be picking up for sure.
Craig Hemke (17:29.358)
Is the bigger risk, I mean, this is what's done is done, right? And going to be hard to undo in some regards. Is the bigger risk to the mining companies in general going forward a falling price of gold and silver, or is it higher energy costs? I mean, what's a bigger risk to the margins?
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (17:51.811)
I would say higher energy costs because as gold prices have gone up, grades have gone down. so people with the cutoff grades have gone down and then they're just saying, well, you know, we could mine this, we can mine that. Everything you mine in a lower cutoff grade to get the same amount of ounces, you're mining and processing more tons. Mining, if you're exposed to diesel trucks and not electrification, requires more diesel.
Craig Hemke (17:53.998)
Okay.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (18:21.777)
And if you're processing more, that requires more power. And if that's natural gas or diesel, that's problematic. So, you where is that plant located? Is that, you know, hydropower? Is that nuclear? You know, so that's not exposed to that. Or is it grid power versus self-generated? That's another issue. And is it a big, like I said at the beginning, is it a big open pit, huge, like the iron ore companies?
Craig Hemke (18:46.317)
Good
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (18:50.705)
in Northern Western Australia, they're overexposed to diesel. Even some of the hard rock lithium stuff in remote parts of Australia. Australia's having a lot of problems right now in terms of diesel because they really don't have much inventory because most of their diesel actually comes from China. And China just has restricted the exports of fuel products. And so Australia's kind of screwed.
Craig Hemke (19:03.234)
Yeah. Yeah.
Craig Hemke (19:17.816)
Yeah.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (19:18.865)
So that has really impacted some of those big open pits, like panic level almost. So yeah, that's definitely something that's, it's like now. It's not like a long-term thing, it's just like now. And then, so even some explorers, their costs might go up. So I get questions like, is drilling costs gonna go up? Yeah, they will go up. But most of the costs of drilling, especially in the US, have...
gone up a lot in the last two to three years has been labor because you can't find drillers. hasn't diesel. Diesel might be depending on the rig and you know 25 % of the cost reagents might be another 20-25%. The drill rig itself isn't very expensive. It's all those inputs and then the bigger deal is finding people that can actually operate them.
You know, the big deal for us going forward is that margin for operators on diesel exposure and like West Africa, a lot of the power is off grid and they use heavy fuel or diesel. So not only are you using diesel trucks, but now you're also using, you know, fuel products to run whatever 40 megawatt plant or whatever it is. You know, that will increase your costs, but costs
Don't cover it all because sometimes like in Australia right now, Western Australia, it's availability. It just doesn't exist. You even if you could pay that amount, you can, you might not get it. Yeah.
Craig Hemke (20:48.183)
Right.
Not going to get it right. Joe is my final question for you. And again, this is just industry wide. Is there a risk to decrease commodity production because of this? You know, it's like the old Rick rule added, you know, higher prices are the cure to high prices or, whatever it is. You know what I'm saying? I mean, could this actually.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (21:06.65)
Yeah.
Craig Hemke (21:18.882)
are people not thinking far enough ahead in that, wow, we could actually tighten the physical supply of all these commodities.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (21:24.965)
Well, we were going into this with the idea that we didn't have enough. We didn't have enough critical minerals. You know, were worried about copper production because of the capital intensity. So in the interim, know, Freeport had announced that they're looking at expanding El Abra in Chile. And that would be a seven billion dollar project. You know, this this potash mine.
Craig Hemke (21:33.91)
Yeah, right.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (21:54.769)
the new BHPCOs come in and said, you know, we're going to focus in on copper, iron ore, potash, and what else, coal. You know, and, you know, they have, what is it? It's like a $14 billion potash project in Canada, you know. And so these are big projects that require a lot of energy. And so, you know, long term,
So we're talking short-term impacts, know, okay, we open the Straits of Hormuz, but then there's obviously some people thinking like, do I want to keep my exposure there? Like what if it's sort of like COVID, do I want to keep my exposure to Chinese processed goods? I'm going to have to pull back a bit. Do I pull back from the Middle East? And suddenly, you know, higher cost fuel that's less risky, let's say out of Canada or some other places.
you know, if we can get our source self sorted out with respect to the pipelines, I mean, is that the new level? Okay. You know, this stuff to make sense needs 70 bucks. I'm willing to pay 70 bucks if I know I'm going to get it. You know, I don't want another, you know, straight support moves issue. And that'll be the same thing with sulfur might be the same thing with a lot of other things that come out of that area. And then all that push when financing wasn't easy.
Craig Hemke (23:11.075)
Yeah.
Craig Hemke (23:16.558)
Mm-hmm.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (23:23.345)
several years ago, and then, you know, the Middle East and Saudi Arabia talking about being a critical mineral hub. Like, who's one going to want that? Who's going to want to be dependent on that volatile region for critical minerals, like going from China to that. So then, okay, a European critical mineral hub, a US critical mineral, that sort of, those are the other things that have longer term impacts on people's thinking.
Craig Hemke (23:28.718)
You
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (23:51.249)
and big companies like from HP and that.
Craig Hemke (23:56.078)
Well, and that's why knew you were the right guest to have this month to wrap it up, Joe, because it's really easy on this very surface level to go, well, okay, energy price, I'll probably get that fixed, precious metals, but there's so much more long term stuff that investors need to be thinking about. And I know that that's what you do every day at Exploration Insights. And so everybody can go to explorationinsights.com one word.
insights with an eye. What will they find there Joe and tell everybody a little bit about what you do.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (24:31.345)
Yeah, so we write a weekly letter and this letter has been going since about 2008. Brent Cook started it, was a founder. I took it over towards the end of 2015 and I've been writing it actually longer than Brent has for about 10 years. And it's about what we're doing with our money and what I'm doing buying, selling, then thematics like we were talking about just now. Trying to inform people about what's going on.
Craig Hemke (24:44.887)
Yeah.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (24:58.915)
I make my money from subscribers and what we make in the portfolio. We don't take money from companies. The only connection with me and a company is that they cover my costs for travel. If they're not willing to do that with me saying, if I don't like it, I'm not gonna write about it, I don't go. But I traveled, I mean, I did 17 site visits last year, so that's not been an issue.
Yeah, and you know, and we're technically like our whole thing is constraining to the technical unbiased and being independent and independence in all forms of media and life has become a hard thing to do in this. Yeah, so, but we continue to do it because it's it's it's a comparative advantage.
Craig Hemke (25:42.574)
You got that right.
Craig Hemke (25:49.762)
Yeah, for sure. Again, explorationinsights.com. Joe Mazumdar, thank you for your time and helping us kind of sort through what has been such a crazy volatile month. Caught a lot of people flat-footed, including myself. And so I really appreciate your perspective.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (26:02.513)
Yeah.
Joe Mazumdar - Expl Ins (26:08.592)
All right. Thanks a lot, Craig.
Craig Hemke (26:10.808)
Great to see you, my friend. And thank you everybody for hanging in there with us and fighting your way through the month of March. So month of April is going to kick off brand new quarter. We're already a quarter of the way through the year. Gosh, it seems like it's been a whole year already. So keep an eye on this channel, hit the like button, hit the subscribe button. So you're notified as a whole new month of content begins as soon as next week. For now though, we're going to sign off. Thanks again to Joe. Thanks everybody for watching.
And, thanks again to Sprout Money for financing this channel and we'll see you all in April.
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