Glacial Pace, but Lows Close in Gold and Silver

Little has changed over the past few weeks. There are still two high probability paths on the table for Gold and Silver. Two different routes with the same ultimate destination: UP!

GOLD PRICE

Scenario 1: Gold breaks $2000 and falls to somewhere between $1962-$1923, worst-case $1900, my original forecast.

Scenario 2: Gold bottoms around $2010-$2020 and begins its rally to $2200 next.

Again, ~$2000 is the key. Above $2000, S2 is the higher probability. Below $2000, S1 becomes far more probable.

SILVER PRICE

It is even simpler for Silver.

Scenario 1: Silver breaks $22 and can fall as low as $20 before take-off to $27-$30.

Scenario 2: Silver has already bottomed at $22 and is going up to $25-$28 next.

As with $2000 for Gold, $22 is the key in Silver.

Above $22, S2 is the higher probability. Below $22, S1 wins out.

The beauty of this is that the destination remains the same, but the routes to get there are different.

Elsewhere, the COT positioning data is sufficient for a major low in Silver. Gold has a little further to go.

Sentiment is far more bullish in Gold than in Silver, and that likely means Silver leads the coming rally and Gold has more downside ahead than Silver.

The DXY and the 10Y yields have one more pop to $105-$106 and 4.25-4.35% respectively, imho, before heading south in a major way.

Everything is lining up for a big rally in the metals and miners. But you need to have the patience of a saint in order to capitalize on it.