Bull & Bear Cases for Gold & Silver

Gold Price Forecast 2024: Bullish vs Bearish Outlook

Weekly

Bullish

The trend of higher lows and higher highs continues.

Gold just set a new record high today. It could tag $2600 next.

The DXY has a date with 94-92 once it peaks.

Bearish

The weekly chart above is extreme overbought and shows a clear, negative, divergently higher high, which warrants caution.

The Banks still hold near record high net short positions.

Sentiment in Gold remains stubbornly bullish.

The DXY may have more to go on the upside to 102 or higher before it heads down to 94-92.

The risk of a stock market crash remains ever present. It’s a question of when, not if.

Neutral

The Fed is about to cut the Fed Funds rate by 25 bp next week, but this is already priced in.

Daily

Daily Gold Price Analysis: Bullish and Bearish Factors

The only addition provided by the daily chart is the multiple negative divergences piling up at higher prices. Typically, they finally catch up to price, i.e., Gold falls.

Gold Price Forecast Summary

Risk remains to the downside in the short term, especially if Gold hits $2600.

However, beyond the short term, as long as the upward trend of higher lows and higher highs remains intact, the next big target is $2700.

For those of you who want to chase the price higher here, place tight stops below $2560. For those with a longer time horizon, placing stops below $2500—or worst case, $2460—would be my preference.

Silver Price Forecast 2024: Key Bullish and Bearish Trends

Bullish

Silver has been lagging Gold for months now and is nowhere near the extremes of its bigger brother.

The RSI is neutral, providing plenty of room to go higher.

The wedge pattern on the chart above shows that Silver has to resolve one way or another shortly. A break of $31.70 would signal at least $33-$34 or the beginning of a move up to $45.

Bearish

The Banks have been cutting their shorts, but they still have their biggest net short position since March 2020.

While sentiment in Silver is not as bullish as that in Gold, it is bullish.

If Gold does peak and fall, it will drag Silver down with it, but Silver will likely outperform Gold by falling less.

Failure to break out of the wedge pattern to the upside could signal a move down to $28 again or worse.

Daily

Silver Price Analysis for 2024: Daily Insights

As it stands, the current rally in Silver looks like a standard ABC pattern in 3 waves up, which is bearish. We need to see five waves up to signal a massive rally to follow.

$28 is critical support, whereas $31.70-$31.80 is resistance.

Silver Price Forecast: Conclusion

Silver would confirm its bullish intentions by breaking out of its wedge pattern to the upside.

However, a failure to break out—or worse, a fake breakout—could signal a drop to at least $28.