Still Waiting for the Bottom

SILVER

Nothing has changed. Silver still has a date with 28.50 “at least” imho. Worst-case is a drop to $26.50. Thereafter, Silver is going much higher.

GOLD

The same goes for Gold. I expect it to reach$ 2,285 at a minimum, but below there, the worst-case is $2,150 imho. This would also close the massive gap from the peak at $2,454 to the 200-day moving average.

FUNDAMENTALS

On balance, the FOMC was hawkish yesterday, as I suspected they might be. Inflation may be slowing but not fast enough and prices continue to rise. The Fed actually raised their inflation forecast. They have now cut their forecast for rate cuts from 3 to 1 this year. QT is to continue also. All with a backdrop of supposedly a strong economy and labor market, which is nonsense imho. This is bearish for the metals and miners.

POSITIONING

The Banks remain extremely bearish for both Silver and Gold, which can’t be good…  

Sentiment remains relatively bullish. Retail buyers haven’t thrown in the towel yet, far from it. This also supports further downside.

Conclusion on Precious Metals Prices

Once we hit bottom in both Gold and Silver, up they go to new highs imho. Gold to $2,500-$2,700 and Silver to $35-$42. The question is where we bottom. The metals may have some way to go yet on the downside.