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Collapsing U.S. Productivity Changes Everything - Peter Diekmeyer (02/01/2019)

Collapsing U.S. Productivity Changes Everything - Peter Diekmeyer (02/01/2019)
By Peter Diekmeyer 21 days ago 4098 Views 8 comments

Jan 2, 2019

U.S. private sector productivity rose by 2.3% during Q3, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics, following a massive hike in deficit spending by the Trump Administration.

These data matter.

If each of us produces more each year, we make ourselves richer … but more importantly, through the progressive income tax system, we also make each other richer.

However, longer term, annual U.S. productivity gains have slipped from an average of 2.3% during the seven decades starting in Q4 1948 to just 1.1% in the decade following the start of the 2007 financial crisis.

Worse, there are growing signs that U.S. labour productivity is not just slowing, it’s in a freefall.

That means, far from making each other richer, Americans are making each other poorer.

Consider:

Why is productivity collapsing?

The idea that American productivity is collapsing seems ludicrous. This, during a time of an increasingly educated population, exploding technology and communications power, as well as the proliferation of AI, mobile devices and robotized manufacturing processes.

However, a range of forces are pushing in the opposite direction:

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s low interest rate policies have made it more profitable for businesses to buy back stock than reinvest in technology.

Bail-outs of large U.S. banks, automotive companies and other key sectors have stifled private sector innovation for a generation.

Increased government borrowing has enabled vast, inefficient bureaucracies at the U.S. federal, state and local levels to avoid reform.

America’s seniors are draining productive resources from the economy by collecting pensions and healthcare benefits they never fully funded.

Americans producing less with more

The reason that the collapse is not reflected in the official data is in part due to the fact that the BLS measures only private sector hourly productivity.

This does not reflect the growing drag on potential growth stemming from the increasing resources transferred to the more than 100 million working age Americans who are unemployed, out of the labour force or in jail.

Worse, the BLS calculations rely on the flawed GDP totals produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

As John Williams of ShadowStats notes, the results are likely overestimated, because the deflator the BEA uses does not fully account for the loss in purchasing power in the U.S. dollar—the unit of measure used in its calculations.

The chart below (produced by Williams) shows U.S. GDP growth as measured by official sources.

The following chart shows GDP growth as calculated using a GDP deflator, corrected for an approximately two percentage point understatement.

Using this adjusted measure, the U.S. economy is no bigger than it was two decades ago. Yet America’s population has shot up by 15% since then.

This suggests the country’s per capita productivity has fallen by 0.75 percentage points per year on a straight-line basis since then.

America’s most important work. But are California teachers worth $73,000 a year?

The productivity drain stemming from bloated state, local and federal government spending, which now accounts for more than 60% of U.S. GDP, is particularly troubling.

As Ludwig von Mises pointed out in Socialism: An Economic and Sociological Analysis, public sector planners—even brilliant ones—are simply unable to allocate resources effectively because they lack access to effective price signals.

The inefficiencies are startling.

U.S. governments routinely transfer massive subsidies to the big banks. The Department of Defence can’t account for trillions of dollars of missing funds. Ongoing regressive U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate policies transfer huge wealth to the top 10% of income earners.

Government resource allocation challenges become particularly clear at the micro level.

For example, Time Magazine recently ran an excellent article on how the country’s public-school teachers, like most Americans, have seen the purchasing power of their take-home pay decline.

There is no free market in education. With few effective price signals, California’s central planners are thus unable to determine whether they should raise taxes to increase pay for teachers earning $73,000 a year (plus benefits and a pension plan).

Adding to the complexity is the fact that millions of American college graduates who could teach—at far lower salaries—are underemployed or wasting time doing graduate studies.

A Soviet-style collapse?

America’s freefall in productivity is likely even worse than the estimates provided above.

That’s because—as we have pointed out—BEA data also don’t account for the massive debt and unfunded liability increases needed to juice up existing economic growth.

If those effects—which suggest that U.S. GDP is as much as 30% smaller than experts claim— are included, they could herald a coming slow-motion, Soviet Union-style collapse in the American economy.

Indeed, one of the worst problems in the old Russia-led empire was that sloppy Communist Party data made it impossible to confirm whether problems existed … and if so, where.

America is now facing the exact same challenges.



Peter Diekmeyer is a business writer/editor with Sprott Money News, the National Post and Canadian Defence Review. He has studied in MBA, CA and Law programs and filed reports from more than two dozen countries.


The views and opinions expressed in this material are those of the author as of the publication date, are subject to change and may not necessarily reflect the opinions of Sprott Money Ltd. Sprott Money does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness and reliability of the information or any results from its use.You may copy, link to or quote from the above for your use only, provided that proper attribution to the source and author is given and you do not modify the content. Click Here to read our Article Syndication Policy.

Chris Buors 21 days ago at 1:01 PM
A+
Peter Diekmeyer 19 days ago at 11:15 AM
Where the heck were you when I was in College?
alan 20 days ago at 2:48 PM
Nice article Peter. I have to point out, you are not digging down to the root causes, but I believe your data - US worker productivity is declining.
Reasons: "capture the value" economics that are prevalent in corporate America (which is really international corps, no longer American corps)

Over the past 18 years, corps have waged war on, well, wages. As the workers produced more, the "capture the value" brought most of the benefits back to stock holders rather than the workers. Where is the incentive to help a company that at its heart seems to disdain the producer?

Therefore workers are demoralized and dis-incentivized. The corps have achieved this scorched earth result with the help of lapdog politicians keeping borders open for illegal labor, massive H1B visa programs, and massive outsourcing.

I have a BSEE and MSMSM, and have worked my tail off. Each of my tech contracts of the past 10 years has ended the same way: successful execution, followed immediately by mass layoffs. This happened at Lockheed, Conway, Daimler, CenturyLink, and BJC.

So the model is clear: produce and work 80 hours a week with enthusiasm, have your creativity and work seized by the company, go home in a large group being pushed out the door.

I embrace free enterprise. But if this economy is what crony capitalism looks like, I see it as the new global feudalism. And it stinks.

Best Regards,
Alan
Peter Diekmeyer 19 days ago at 11:20 AM
This US economy - where government spending accounts for 60% of GDP - may be better described as "crony socialism".

It is clear from your post that you - like most private sector workers today - are extremely productive.

The inefficiencies lie almost exclusive in the public sector.
william scott 18 days ago at 11:14 PM
Mr Alan, global feudalism with a large dollop of totalitarisme is what the future will bring. The more you read Mr. Diekmeyer's articles the more doomed you will feel. Its to bad that what he writes is generally factually correct. To bad, that is, if what you want, is to dream about a brighter future that's not coming.

Well done Mr. Diekmeyer, the sky is falling, .....Soviet stye!
Peter Diekmeyer 16 days ago at 11:09 AM
Mr. Scott,
The diagnosis may be grim.
However there are advantages to identifying trends early, both on the public-policy and investment fronts.
Many thanks, as always, for your comments.
JC 20 days ago at 8:44 PM
How is it you suggest that through the progressive income tax system, we also make each other richer."??
Peter Diekmeyer 19 days ago at 11:25 AM
The full statement - which reads "If each of us produces more each year, we make ourselves richer … but more importantly, through the progressive income tax system, we also make each other richer,"-
is slightly more nuanced, than your characterization.

However your point - that income distribution may not in itself grow the overall economic pie - is noted, and may well be correct.

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