Are Gold & Silver in Trouble? Chris Vermeulen Predictions

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Well, hello again from Sprot Money and SprotMoney.com. We are now into the month of November, actually well into the month of November. And it's time for your precious metals projection video. I'm your host, Craig Hemke and joining us is my usual co-host, Chris Vermeulen of the TechnicalTraders.com. Chris, good to see you. Good to see you, Craig. A reminder, the same reminder you always get, this content appears all through the month.

on all Sprott Money channels, you should subscribe to those channels. But then you should be sure to visit SprottMoney.com anytime you're in the market for some physical precious metal, which actually is on sale versus what it was a couple of weeks ago. As you can see right there, you can buy and get a great deal on the Sprott branded Eternal Sun Round. If you buy more than $500 worth, they'll ship them to you insured for free.

And hey, with Bitcoin making new all time highs, maybe you can swap out some Bitcoin or Ethereum for precious metal. Sprot Money will allow you to do that as well. So anyway, check them all out, SprotMoney.com or call them up at 888-861-0775. Well, Chris, this is rather timely. We're recording this on November the 11th. This is now the fourth trading day since the election of Trump and gold's now down five or 6%.

in just those four trading days, silver's down eight or 9%. Quite a correction is one that many folks, including yourself, have been expecting. So what are your thoughts in general about the markets? And then we'll get to gold and silver and the mining shares. Yeah, I'm definitely hitting a major turning point in terms of new presidential elections, sparking off a new rally in the equities markets, creating what looks to be

maybe a significant top in precious metals temporarily spurring on crypto and all that stuff. right now the equities market, I we're seeing a broad market rally. We're seeing most sectors move up, which is a sign of strength. We're seeing big volume move in. Small caps are doing exceptionally well. The day Trump got in, small caps like popped like 6%. And they're up again, like almost a percent and a half today, while the NASDAQ is actually negative. I think there's

a few headwinds for the big techs, I think you look at the semiconductor space in general. mean, it's, if there's going to be tariffs from China, semiconductors are a lot of it's in China. So I think that might be part of the, the hold back on the big techs kind of holding the markets down and the small caps are kind of flying high. So I mean, the market, trends are up. You gotta be long equities here. It's a, a very strong market and you don't want to fight it. Yeah. And, know, and we've had such a fantastic run.

I mean, at what $2,800 gold, we were up 35 % year to date, which by far would have been the best year we've had that I can recall. We're now still up whatever, 25, 28 % year to date, which is fantastic. I think if you'd have told anybody when the year began and we were close to $2,000 that we'd still be up here at 2,600, then okay. So these bull markets always play out.

in these kind of higher highs and higher lows and two steps forward and one step back. And we're kind of in that one step back part right now. Let's start with the chart of gold, Chris. And please let everybody know what you see. Maybe for people that are been waiting for a pullback to buy some physical metal from Sprott Money. would you expect some support and some consolidation in this pullback?

Yeah, well, I mean, you and I talked about this. We've talked about this several times because this is a multi-year chart pattern, but this is the monthly chart of gold. And you and I have been talking about how based on the start of the last super cycle back in 2001 to the 2011 top and the 2015-2016 low, I use Fibonacci extension. This gives us a very clear upside.

levels in gold where we should find a pause more or less if it hits this 618 level we generally see the if the market has a pause at that level we almost always go up and hit that 100 measured move in this 27 2750 area has been hit and so now we're starting to see gold reverse and you know this is what i talked about actually a long time ago i wrote an article back here when gold broke out this is where eric sprot had talked about it he read the article and talked about how he got even more

heavy into precious metals, excited about this next new move up. And I talked about this back then, 2750 is the next major measured move based on this last run in correction. That's where we should go. as you just kind of mentioned, gold's definitely giving back some gains. It's hit resistance. It's invisible resistance because it's trading at all time highs. So there aren't sellers there from before, but based on Fibonacci, this is where momentum should stall and run out of ups.

trend of power. that's what we're starting to see. But if we zoom in on the daily chart and we take a look here, mean, gold's had a really nice pullback. It's on pretty strong volume. I do think we could see a bigger pullback over the next several months. I think we could see it potentially pull back down into potentially all the way back down to this 21 range. But on a shorter term basis, it is definitely right down at its first support trend line, which is this pivot low.

from about a month and change ago. So it's definitely coming down here trying to find some support. I think long-term gold is gonna do very well, but I do think it's gonna have a much bigger pullback and kind of come all the way back down. If I zoom back out on this chart, I think we could see gold wanna come back down into potentially this kind of range right down in here, 20, 2100, 2200. That will be a very big pullback, but that will also probably mean that.

the equities market, the economy's stalling out. So we'll have to see how this unfolds, because right now money is really just flowing out of these defensive plays. So Trump got in, and Elon, they're kind of a team, it seems. We're seeing everybody pile into, coming out of gold and moving into equities. So they're coming out of golden bonds. Bonds have been moving down dramatically as well. And a good relationship to look at this is, this is actually my CGS strategy.

where we focus on the SP 500 daily chart, our last trigger here, the SP 500 has been moving up. This is when our strategy said, hey, for some reason, money is piling into the equities market and the SP 500 has had a very nice run. And on the flip side, we've got bonds moving to the downside. So money's coming out of bonds and it wants to get put to work and it's moving into stocks and moving up. And this is what we're seeing in gold as well. Money's coming out of gold now in a bigger way.

moving into something that's going to pay dividends and that has some upside potential. And so that's kind of where we are right now is just money coming out of gold. The dollar is playing a role. Obviously, the dollar has got a very strong pop. we look at the dollar here over the just today alone has had a big pop. So that's putting pressure on the metal space. Chris, in your experience, when you hit a full measured move like that,

and you get a pullback, how deep does the pullback go? Does it go back to that 618 line from the previous move or does it find, does it just consolidate like it had at that 618 line or what do you expect or what has your experience taught you? Yeah, there's a few ways we could draw this. So we could go to, instead of a Fibonacci extension that shows upside targets, we can look at a Fibonacci retracement, which is how much it can pull back. And so if we were to, we could draw a few different levels in here.

Really this one here is the key one. So if we were to just drag this up to the high and carry this over, let me just get rid of these blue lines here. We'll just clean the chart up a little bit. This is the sweet spot. Usually the market wants to retrace about 38 to 50%. And so that really brings us down to the 2000 to 2150 area, which brings us into this 618 level that you just talked about.

it'll come back down and test into this. So typically if something breaks out, a lot of times it'll come back and test that breakout zone, find support and continue to go higher. So that's kind of where we are. If we were to look at the last time gold did this consolidation, this consolidation, this level right here is the same as what we had over here and gold pulled back during the next financial crisis and tagged this level and then took off. So that's what I'm looking for is gold to

fade back down, tag this level. And then I think it's off to the races after that. The sky's the limit. It will go into a multi-year rally. And I think the economy and everything is definitely favoring precious metals more now. Every year it favors precious metals more and more. So this is going to be a very exciting window. Kind of, if it gets down here, this is like probably the last chance to get gold at a screaming discount in terms of long-term potential to the upside.

It won't feel exciting, but I- No, it won't. People will be crying the whole way down. Yeah, me too. I get the point. Let's turn our attention to Silver. A lot of folks are excited, man. When it broke above 33 and started trading 34 and 35, it's like, okay, I was excited too. And got left holding the bag on a ComEx options. Anyway, we're now in a pullback phase there, obviously, as well. What do you see? Yeah, so Silver's done-

pretty much the same as gold. has run up, it's hit its resistance area, it's getting rejected now. It's also a very critical level on the chart from in history. We have two significant highs. You could argue actually there's another high right over here and we had a significant low. So it has definitely hit resistance and it's pivoting down from a Fibonacci extension kind of target. You can see more or less it has come up, hit that 100 % measured move.

Overall, gold and silver and miners are kind of all the same trade. Just some are a little more volatile than others. But overall, I kind of think most of the upside is done. Now, this is a sweet spot in the stock market when we go back and look at cycles. If I was to pull up just kind of general cycle of the market here, typically precious metals do well near a stock market top. And what we could still see is

is gold and silver rebound and go back up to these highs that they've recently seen over the next month or two or three and actually continue to hold value. And maybe the stock market is gonna run out of steam. What happens generally in this stage is we see gold and silver hold their value or move higher and the stock market actually starts to sell off and go down and gold and silver will do very well. So we just have to let this unfold. We're in that, gold and silver have hit those levels. I think the,

The election has put new energy into the stock market. So it's giving it another push and it's pulling money out of these defensive plays and going into stocks. So we definitely have some turmoil, short-term turmoil, but I do think precious metals are gonna probably strengthen and find support here shortly and wanna go back up to test those highs, 20, 2,800 for gold. Maybe this, the high that it saw back over here, this 20, 34, 50 area, it might wanna work its way back up there.

And the stock market will eventually, I think, run out of steam. But the question is, when will the stock market run out of steam? And when will people want to start getting out of the stock market? And we start to see a big sell-off, which will pull the equities down eventually. Or sorry, the precious metals down more down the road. But right now, the momentum is going into stocks. And it's coming out of, usually if one asset class is going up, it means another one is going down. Because money is coming out of one and going into another. And so right now, it's just the

you know, out of gold into equities. And we just need to let this kind of bump or pop kind of fizzle out here and kind of go from there. Well, one sector of the stock market that isn't going up is the mining sector. boy. I know this frustrates so many people. Big companies like Newmont and Barrick can't seem to control their expenses. And it kind of trickles down to the whole sector because people get frustrated when the bellwethers are doing poorly.

That's unpleasant. Let's talk about the GDX as a proxy for the mining sector as a whole. What do you see there? Yeah, I mean, definitely some damage is being done to the chart here. It was channeling up really nicely. We had kind of a series of higher lows, a series of higher highs. Now it's clearly breaking down as picking up speed to the downside today as you and I are talking about this. So it looks like there's a shift. Obviously, we now are going to have a series of

lower lows and depending how those rebounds, it might be a lower high, meaning it could start to work itself and fizzle out. When we look at this level of these highs through here and through this level, you can see price was stuck below there and kind of flirted around, tried to break through it, finally found support above it. And so we're coming down to a support level. 36, this area should be a bit of a support zone. And I think it's getting oversold.

and we should see some type of bounce for it to go up. And the question is, is it just going to be a bounce and then it goes lower or is it going to bounce and have legs and go a whole lot higher? But this is not a good sign. We kind of want to see these miners outperforming gold. Instead, they're really going in the opposite way. mean, GDX is fairly conservative of a play and it's already down like 17 % in the past couple of weeks. So there's quite a bit of damage being done to the miners.

But it's no real surprise, like in the grand scheme of things, miners are nowhere near the highs like they were when, you know, back when gold put a top in 2011, 2012. So miners really aren't participating. And, you know, you could argue we've kind of got, you know, pretty major resistance area that it's hit on this chart. And now it might want to consolidate for a while until the economy has a cleansing event. And like we were talking about with gold, think gold, silver and miners could all pull back together.

And then sometime, hopefully next year, we see that big rally and we see miners break out of this giant base. could argue here, let me just grab that tool back. This here could be one huge, huge base, this launch pad for miners eventually to like skyrocket and do exceptionally well. And we just really have to let this unfold, but miners are definitely telling us it's not the sweet spot for this space just yet. There's been a very nice rally.

but that's about it. It's really still in this kind of overall basing formation and the stars aren't quite aligned yet for this sector. The GDX really rolled over a couple of weeks ago when Newmont came out with poor earnings. Then Newmont's 15 % or so of that index. And I remember remarking to people on my site that day, it reminded me of August of 2020 because there was about a two day period after that whole COVID rally was playing out.

where gold kept going higher, but the miners rolled over first. And we're going down for a couple of days as gold kept going higher. said, this gives me the heebie-jeebies. Well, I guess they were justified. In the meantime, like you said, a series of bull flags on the way up, now maybe a series of bear flags on the way down that people can use to lighten their exposure if necessary. Chris, okay. Well, we've had a bit of a sea change in the last week. It doesn't mean it's permanent.

All the problems with the debt-based system and the exponential growth of the debt and the deficit and devaluation of fiat currency, all that stuff remains. But, you know, things change in the intermediate term and the short term. Chris, you're terrific at recognizing short-term trends. You call it the best asset now in all those sectors that you monitor. with this, I got a deniable kind of change in sentiment over the last week. What is the best asset now? What should, what sector should people be looking at if they're active traders?

Yeah, there's some pretty good excitement going on. mean, we've got GBTC, which is the Bitcoin. It's top of the list. In fact, let's just go to the actual chart. I like to watch physical gauge and chart physical or futures chart. But let's take a look at Bitcoin because this is exciting. This is a couple of days ago. Last week, we got long Bitcoin. This is the monthly chart of Bitcoin. And I bought Bitcoin like a decade ago. I haven't touched it since. And this is the first time I've gotten back.

bought more Bitcoin because I like the upside potential. And more or less, we look at the Bitcoin chart here, we've got this beautiful cup and handle, which a cup and handle is one of the strongest chart patterns. You can generally take the depth of the cup and stack it up two, three times to the upside, which is like a ludicrous price for Bitcoin. So I'm not going to do that, but let's take a look at.

the more conservative price action of just a bull flag chart pattern. So we're take the low, we're gonna take this high, we're gonna take this low. This gives us these upside targets for Bitcoin, which is about 87 and 110,000 give or take. So there's quite a bit of upside potential. We're seeing it pop 10 % today, which is pretty amazing. For all we know, we're actually gonna hit our first target, which is around 87, $88,000.

and we're gonna see if we can go up. So Bitcoin to me, it's not only top of our hot list, but it also has one of the strongest chart patterns of anything else that I've seen. The potential from this breakout that we saw is about 50 % to the upside, 48, 49%, which is why I really like this and it's imminent, meaning this could happen over the next one, two or three months, and that's a pretty good return. Bitcoin is explosive and I really like this chart pattern.

The other ones that are on the list, if we take a look at, we're long the ARKK, or sorry, the ARKWETF. We actually just hit our 20 % target on it this morning. We're actually out of it now, letting this one just go. That was a very quick explosive trade. So we're seeing money move in. The ARKETF is kind of like the Russell 2000 in terms of people are piling into the small cap, the growth, the aggressive stocks. ARKETFs pretty much all of them are those.

And that's why we're seeing the ARC ETFs just really rocket higher. And the other one that were long as well, we just hit a target on this morning. Our first target is XBI, the biotech space. And this has got a very strong chart pattern. When we go back in time here, it's built this big base. It's actually a lot kind of like what the miners are doing. built a big Looks like a GDX. Yeah, exactly. And it's just starting to break out. So we could see a very strong explosive move out of here as well.

Those are the three top ones. Those are three that we hold. money is definitely going. When you look at this hot list, you look at this list of symbols, Bitcoin, biotech, blockchain, autonomous vehicles, regional banks, SpaceX, lithium. mean, definitely money is piling into the very aggressive stuff. the active traders are getting back in. They're willing to take risks.

I actually believe this is a bit of a contrarian signal to be honest, based on the whole overall cycles that are unfolding, much longer term cycles. This is sucking people back in, I think just before the stock market kind of rolls over. And this is just obviously how the masses generally do it. They pile in and they get, they think we're starting a new multi-year bull market in equities. They get into these and then the market runs out of steam, rolls over and dies. And I think 2025 is going to be a terrible year for equities.

But this market environment, new election, Trump, Elon, and the movement into the growth stocks and the general public piling back in, I've got a feeling they're going to be buying near a high and they're going to look back six, eight months from now and go, holy, how did I get sucked in right at the high around news? Because we see distribution selling going on, Greg. There's a lot of big volume days to the downside where people are unloading portfolios. You can see it in the indexes. You can see it in...

of various stocks. right now, I think it's just mass psychology of people piling in. can't fight the herd. money's piling in from the average Joe, they might be wrong because they're buying the high, but you got to ride this wave because you don't know how big that stampede is. And it's all about following the price. And when it starts to roll over, that's when you can get off and move on. Well, as you said, it's going to set us all up for very interesting 2025. No question about that.

We've got one month to go though in 2024. Gosh, we seem like we close this way every month, Chris. I can't wait to see where we are by the early December, the next time we do one of these videos. But I really can't wait. I think it's going to be quite interesting. the meantime, all the great work you do at the technicaltraders.com, tell people how they can find out more. Sure. Yeah. Well, anybody can go to my website at the technicaltraders.com. And pretty much just like I share the charts here, I share

my exact trades that I'm doing in my own portfolio. I share them with subscribers so you can follow the strategy. You can have it traded for you with auto trading or with a participating financial advisor if you don't want to do anything. And I just cover ETFs. We rotate our money from equities to bonds to a currency to cash, whatever asset the money is flowing into, which is kind of what I showed back with this other chart where money is either flowing into stocks and out of something else. We can identify where the money is flowing.

And that's the asset class we wanna hold. So that's what I focus on. And it's simple, there's five to 12 ETF trades a year. You can manage our entire portfolio. I ride the coattails of the market. Subscribers ride my coattails and copy my ETF trades and portfolio allocation. Pretty cool stuff. Chris, thank you so much. It's always so insightful to visit with you. And everybody on the way out, make sure you thanks PropMoney. And if anything,

put a like or a subscribe on whatever channel you're watching. Subscribe in particular, sign up to the newsletter from Sprot Money because there's more content coming this month. I write stuff, David Brady writes stuff every week. That shows up on the Sprot Money site and more videos coming as well. You don't want to miss any of it, especially in times like this where we've got such great volatility, great service provided by Sprot Money.

at SprotMoney.com. Chris, thank you so much for your time and all of this great analysis. And I look forward to visiting with you again in a few weeks. Sounds good. Thanks, Greg. Take care. And from all of us at SprotMoney, SprotMoney.com. Thanks for watching, but keep an eye on this channel for more content as we get deeper into November.