Deflation to Trigger Fed’s 180

While everyone is focused on inflation, it is becoming increasingly clear that we’re on the cusp of deflation in everything but necessities such as food and energy. It is also convenient for the Fed that they exclude the most important factors for consumers in their analysis of inflation and its influence on monetary policy.

June 30, 2022
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The Dollar Twenty-Five Tree

You've seen these places, right? They're all over the U.S. south and other sparsely-populated spots. They've recently moved into urban areas, too. Everything is priced at $1.00...or at least it used to be.

June 28, 2022
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Gold Sector Counting Down to Launch

Given that next to nothing has happened in Gold or Silver in the past several weeks, I am going to provide quick updates on the DXY, real and nominal bond yields, and the S&P. These markets are many, many times bigger than the precious metals markets and to varying degrees have a great deal of influence on the prospects for Gold and Silver.

June 23, 2022
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The "Washed Out" Silver CoT

Recent data from the CFTC suggests that COMEX silver positioning is the most favorable since June of 2019. While this does not preclude more downside, it certainly suggests that any further price drops will be shallow.

June 21, 2022
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Buy When There’s Blood in the Streets

The Fed raised rates by 0.75% yesterday to 1.50% and plans to continue raising rates to at least 2.5% in the next few months. Quantitative Tightening, or QT, is continuing at its announced pace also. While the Fed’s move was hawkish to say the least, this was all expected, and the markets sold the rumor but bought the fact.

June 16, 2022
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Concern For Stonks, Pt. 3

It appears time to write the third installment of what has now become a series of articles. The way things are trading at present, there may not be a need to write a fourth.

June 14, 2022
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Stars Aligning for Metals & Miners

The Bullion Banks continue to cut their shorts in Gold, and the Funds are paring their longs too. Commercials are back to positions consistent with all of the prior lows in the past 18 months.

June 9, 2022
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When Money Dies

Back in the summer of 2011, many of us were reading about the Weimar Republic and its hyperinflationary downfall. A decade later, it's time to revisit the history.

June 7, 2022
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Countdown to Fed’s Next 180

Back in July 2020, I appeared on a podcast with Tom at Palisades Radio, where I forecast the peak in Gold and Silver in August. The Fed had already cut QE by 88% and fiscal stimulus was set to follow with government handouts due to expire on August 1st.

June 2, 2022
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Fifty Basis Points Does Not Fix This

Your Masters of The Universe at the Federal Reserve would like you to believe that they have inflation under control and they can solve the problem through a few hikes of the fed funds rate.

May 31, 2022
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Risk-Reward Increasingly Skewed to the Upside

Little has changed in the past week in terms of the narrative. The Fed is still hell-bent on conquering inflation, per the latest FOMC minutes. But cracks are developing in the façade.

May 26, 2022
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Powell Pivot II Is Closer Than You Think

Today's U.S. economic data is gloomy and points toward worsening conditions and eventual recession. The amount of time before Powell Pivot II kicks in just got shorter.

May 24, 2022
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COT Data Signals Bottom Is in Place or Close

While Banks and Commercials ostensibly remain heavily short Gold, Hedge Funds have slashed their net long position to 62k contracts, just 33k above the low in March 2021 when Gold bottomed at 1675 for the first time.

May 19, 2022
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COMEX TAS Games

Well, here we go again. The COMEX gold front month is due to go off the board and into delivery, and once again, open interest has been loaded for maximum price impact.

May 17, 2022
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Elastic Band About to Break

Central banks were ostensibly designed to smooth out fluctuations in the economy and financial markets in order to avoid major financial crises. Unfortunately, they have done the exact opposite. Central bank interventions in markets around the world have created a series of booms and busts for decades.

May 12, 2022
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