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Precious Metals Projections

Gold & Silver Price Predictions for Spring 2024

Craig and Chris on Precious Metals Projections Banner

In today's discussion, Chris and Craig will delve into:

  1. The remarkable volatility in the precious metals market over the past week, including notable movements in gold, silver, and mining stocks.

  2. Analysis of the broader equities market, focusing on the current appetite for growth and the implications for investors amidst a backdrop of fear of missing out (FOMO).

  3. Detailed examination of the technical charts for gold, highlighting key levels and potential price targets as the precious metal breaks out of a multi-year consolidation phase.

  4. Insights into the silver market, exploring its challenges and opportunities as it navigates crucial resistance levels and strives to break out of its range.

  5. Evaluation of the GDX ETF (proxy for the mining sector), identifying strategic entry points and discussing potential upward momentum amid changing market dynamics and investor sentiment.

For a deeper dive into today's discussion with Craig and Chris, watch the full video below. Stay informed and make informed investment decisions.

Craig: Hello, again, from Sprott Money News, at sprottmoney.com. Oh, my gosh. It's now March. We are already almost 20% done with 2024. I'm not sure where the time goes, but I do know it's time to visit with Chris Vermeulen again. This is your monthly "Precious Metals Projection" podcast. I'm your host, Craig Hemke, and joining us is Chris Vermeulen of thetechnicaltraders.com. Chris, it's always good to see you, my friend.

Chris: Same here, Craig. Always a pleasure.

Craig: At least it's spring time. I guess that's the bright side. But holy cow, the sand is passing through the hourglass, and it is already March. So, anyway, let's get underway. I wanna remind everybody as we begin, though, this content is always brought to you by Sprott Money, free of charge. You get to just watch it. But you should thank them for putting this content on the internet for you. Next time you're in the market for physical precious metal, which should be, like, now, I suppose, the way things are moving, make sure you visit Sprott Money. Or you can always call them at 888-861-0775. You can see that number right there at the top of the page. Always great deals at Sprott Money. They'll store the precious metal for you as well. If you're ever interested in converting your retirement accounts to physical precious metal, Sprott Money can help you with that too, whether it's an RSP in Canada or an IRA in the U.S. Sprott Money, your one-stop destination for all things precious metal. Thank them for this content by stopping by their site today.

Chris, what a month we've had. I say what a month. What a week we've had. We're recording this on Wednesday, the, well, I don't even know what today is right now at this point.

Chris: The 6th. Yeah, March 6th.

Craig: The 6th. It was just one week ago today, the, like, the GDX was down below 26. The GDX has rallied 14% in a week. Gold has moved up to new all-time highs. Silver's looking better. It has been quite a sea change in the last couple of weeks. [inaudible 00:02:09] from a 30,000-foot picture, I know you're watching these markets every single day, you've got your best assets now, the worst assets now. How does everything look for you, you know, as you look across all markets?

Chris: Yeah. I mean, you bring up the best and the worst assets. I mean, it was only just a few days ago, miners were testing these lows. They were hated. Everybody was getting panicky. I got a lot of emails from people wondering what to do with their positions in gold. People were starting to give up on it. And, you know, GDX, and SILJ, both of them were almost at the very bottom of our best asset now. They're more, like, more or less the worst asset now. And now they're rebounding. They are actually still near the bottom of our list. If we actually take a look at the hot list, we have SILJ down near the bottom. And we've got, GDX has popped up beyond the halfway point. So, it's interesting how they can have one big pop, they can go from bottom of the pile, and I have a feeling they could be up near the top of the pile over the next month or two, and become, actually, one of the best market leaders here. So, I mean, we're seeing a big pop in gold miners. I've been talking about how gold has got this beautiful bullish chart pattern, and with gold breaking out, and metals and miners being more or less hated, and people panicking in that support, we're primed and ready, I think, for a fairly significant rally in gold, and silver, and miners. And miners are still struggling to get into an uptrend. They're just starting at...we're still in a bounce phase, an oversold bounce, but it could be the start of something very, very exciting.

Craig: Well, let's get back to that chart in a minute. Let's look at the general equities markets, what appears to be certainly not an interest in value. It's all about growth, and, you know, if you're not doubling your money in a week or two, you're really missing out. You know, I like to joke that, you know, they talk about fear and greed in the market. The only fear right now is a fear of missing out. And it's been that way for quite some time. You know, whether it is NVIDIA, whether that's reflected in something like Bitcoin. Where do you see the markets in general?

Chris: Yeah. So, the last time you and I talked, I was hoping...actually, it might have been a couple times ago, but I was hoping the S&P 500 was gonna break to new all-time highs, because that is going to get all the people on the sidelines who were scared to get in, or people who haven't been involved in the markets, when the S&P 500 hits new all-time highs, I believe it's gonna create that FOMO you just mentioned, Craig, where people finally feel like they're missing out, they have to get in, they're getting left behind on a new bull market. And so we've seen that, and we're starting to see that take place. NVIDIA is a, I mean, NVIDIA also has the whole AI side of it, but people are piling into NVIDIA. It has gone, just blasted higher, and we have, really, the general public, who really have never even, a lot of them haven't even traded stocks, are piling in to this. I know people buying NVIDIA with their phone, and transferring money over with the, whatever, Simply Wealth or whatever those online apps are, buying their first shares, ever, and they're buying NVIDIA.

And we can see that in the price action. When we start to get huge gaps, when we get price going up, we got increased volume, this is telling us we're getting the FOMO. People are piling in, and they're in risk-on mode. They're like, "I wanna make money. I'm jumping on this train," even though the train left the station a long, long time ago, they're jumping on just as I, you know, I think we're getting up into nosebleed, kind of bubble-popping territory going forward. So, we can see that, very similar type of price action in Bitcoin. Bitcoin has rocketed up, hit some new all-time highs. And it even poked to a new all-time high yesterday, and then got slammed with some selling. This is a pretty bearish sign. When the market gaps open, runs up, hits a new high, and then gets slammed down and closes below the previous session, that is a bearish engulfing candle. That usually means it's temporarily topped, and we could see it move down for few bars. So, it's gonna be very interesting to see how this plays out. When we look at it from a bigger picture, we can go and see these other highs, and how, you know, we're definitely up in that parabolic, nosebleed section. People are in risk-on mode, willing to step in and try to make a bunch of money really quick. And it'll be interesting to see how this pans out, because typically, when the general public piles in all at the same time, and stuff has gone straight up, it can end very abruptly.

Craig: Yes.

Chris: So, we're definitely at that, kind of, turning, getting close to, I think, a key turning point here.

Craig: How do you fight the urge not to short it? You know, I look at, like, that NVIDIA, and it's going parabolic. And so, you know, at some point, you know, it's gonna have a sharp pullback, but [inaudible 00:07:11] and so you wanna buy some puts, but the same time, I wanted to buy puts a week ago.

Chris: Yeah.

Craig: So, that doesn't work. How does anybody, how do you manage that, I guess, emotion of wanting to take the opposite side?

Chris: Yeah. I mean, to me, the safer way is to let the bubble inflate. If you're not in it now, I feel like it's a pure gamble. You've got a really... It's more of a momentum play. You get in it, you try and squeeze some out, if it starts to roll over, you gotta get out. So, I'm more so let it go up to where it's gonna go. Eventually, there's gonna be a huge crack to the downside, and then it'll probably create some type of topping phase, and then I would be more inclined to take an inverse play as it starts to break down, and picks up.

Craig: Yeah.

Chris: So, I'm not about trying to pick the top. I'd rather let the damage be done, let the momentum have shifted, and then try and take advantage of the downward move. So, that's kind of where I would kind of look at stuff. Like, you and I talked about this a while ago. We grabbed NVIDIA from the low. We used Fibonacci extension, up to the high. We carried it forward. We talked about how there was this upside target. We had the pause at 0.618, and if we pause at 0.618 for a few days, we typically go up and hit that 100% measured move. We hit that, and now we are in what I believe is kind of that bubble territory. We've taken this massive pattern, and we've maxed it out. And now we're blowing past it, the general public is getting sucked in. FOMO buying is going on. We got gaps on the chart, lots of volume. So, to me, it's...I know people are long it, and they're super bullish. People will say, "Oh, you know, you..." I'm always bearish. But the reality is, like, you know, the signs are there that it's probably getting a little exhausted, or at least there isn't a new upside target to pick from. So, it's kind of, we need to pause or pull back to kind of recalibrate.

Craig: Yeah. Well, we'll certainly keep an eye on it. It'll be fun to talk about it next month...

Chris: Yeah.

Craig: ...when we do our next "Precious Metals Projection." Let's turn to the metals. Because, like I said, things so much have changed in a week. I, mind-blowing to me, still, after doing this as long as I have. From a week ago, you know, and people mad because gold's not going anywhere, and there's no open interest, and it's just going sideways. And then all of a sudden you string a couple good days together, everybody's, "To the moon. It's going to $3000," you know, and it's, "Come on. That's not how it typically works." Though the chart, I'm sure, is instructive as you look at it. We, you and I have talked a lot about this range that gold has been in for better part of three and a half years. It's finally now busting out of that range, and moving to new all-time highs. My experience has always been anytime you get a new all-time high, like you said with NVIDIA, you get this rush of, "Okay, now it's time to get in," because of the positive headlines and everything. So, I would imagine there's still some more upside in gold here, but when you look at the chart, what do you see?

Chris: Yeah. I mean, I think there's a lot of upside still. This is a very, very nice chart pattern. If we look at it from a few different angles, we have a nice, multi-wave rally up. Gold consolidated in this kind of pennant, or bull flag pattern, whatever you wanna call it. And it is pointing to higher pricing. So, if we look at Fibonacci extension, using these kind of conservative levels here, we can get an idea of where gold should go over the next, this is the daily chart, so, over the next probably couple of weeks. We are coming up to this 0.618. Almost always, if we get up, if we hit 0.618 and pause or pull back, even just for a day or two, if it finds it as resistance, we naturally are gonna go up and hit that 100% measured move. So, based on this bull flag pattern, it is pointing to $2250, $2300, somewhere in that range. But we are coming up to this spike high in futures we saw a few months ago. It's also the 0.618 level, so there is, I have no doubt we're probably gonna see some type of volatility or pause here, little pullback. Which is a good thing. We need it to take a breather, because something that just goes straight up usually comes straight back down for a good chunk of it. So, a little pause will be very good. But I do see it going up to, you know, $2250, $2300, just based on this smaller chart pattern, which really is nothing like the monthly, when we look at the monthly chart.

Craig: Yeah, please. Yeah, extend that out and do one of those deals on that.

Chris: Yeah. So, if we do... There's a few different levels here. We could take the ultimate low. We can take this high and this pullback. This will give us the next target, which brings us, believe it or not, the 100% measured move, that we just measured on the shorter time frame, is the 0.618 of this other one, so...

Craig: Again. How about that?

Chris: So, that'll be naturally, it runs out of steam, if it takes a little bit of a pause and pullback, then we're probably going up to $2600, $2700. And then if we go back and we look at the major lows that we saw back in early 2000, and go to the bigger bull flag, this will carry it forward...

Craig: Same thing. There you go.

Chris: ...brings us over. So, we hit the 0.618 on this mega chart pattern. We've paused and pulled back, which means we're probably going up to hit the 100%, which is $2700. So, we're definitely, you know, right now, we're flirting with a 100% and two 0.618 retracements. This is a very strong level. But then we're going up to $2700, more or less. So, that's kind of, like, it in a nutshell. I do think it'll go a lot higher than that, I think, eventually. But overall, that, you know, we're really just working our way up these momentum moves, based on the momentum and investors in the market. So, it's pretty exciting. I mean, we've been waiting for gold to break out. I do believe, if we go into a bear market and a recession in the economy, I do think we'll see gold and silver pull back. Like, maybe gold rallies to $2300, hits that first 100% measured move, then maybe it pulls back for several months, and flags out sideways while the bear market and the recession hit, and then it picks up speed and runs up to those 200% moves to the upside. That's the scenario I see. Or maybe gold pulls back even more after that, back down to where, you know, back down to maybe the $2000, $2100 level, but overall, all of the chart timeframes, from the multi-year to the, you know, the shorter timeframe, right down to the daily chart, are pointing to higher pricing, so that's [crosstalk 00:13:46]

Craig: Yeah. And the same levels. That's what's amazing.

Chris: Yeah.

Craig: I've been telling people on my site, you know, this has been a great move. I don't wanna chase, though, you know. Again, I'm not this to-the-moon kind of type. That's just not the way this market operates, right. You get these ebbs and flows, and the spec money rushes in, and then it kind of runs out, and it washes back, and, you know, we call that, kind of, a "spec wash and rinse." We're probably due for something like that. You get these steps higher.

Chris: Yeah.

Craig: To me, what you've laid out, I'll watch $2150. And when the time comes we get through there, I will then jump on board again, and look for that move to $2300 and then $2700. That all seems to make a lot of sense. Chris, let's translate that to silver, though. Because, again, a lot of people pulling their hair out. Silver's got a lot of work it's gotta do...

Chris: For sure.

Craig: ...as you and I have discussed. We all want it to break out of its own range, which would mean a move over $28. But, I mean, it's gotta get above $26 before it can even talk about $28. You take it from there. What do you see?

Chris: Yeah. I mean, silver, definitely a much uglier chart. It's more volatile. Not a huge fan of it. It is definitely, it hasn't changed a lot from our last conversation. More or less, it's kind of carved out a little bit of a bottom through here. You could argue there's a launchpad. It kind of busted through it, and it's digesting, the market stage is digesting investors. And I do believe eventually it will take off. But, I mean, we could see silver really take off, maybe back up to this $30 level. It's a previous resistance area. It's right through the heart of this consolidation through here. And really, it would bring us right up to a major resistance area. It'll actually be interesting if we throw a Fibonacci extension on here real quick, just to see what that momentum is showing. So, if we kind of take these lows through here, go up to this high, and down here, it is showing that we could potentially push $2800, which brings us into the, or, sorry, $28. Brings us into these highs and these lows right over here. And then, if it takes a bit of a pause, then we actually see it go to the upper end of this range, up at that $34.

So, there's some really interesting potential, and I was gonna show this in gold. It's the same in silver, though, is we had, like, a multi-year consolidation, just before the stock market put in a top, and at that last little bit, as the stock market was just pushing higher, and eventually started to roll over, we saw gold, silver, and miners rally, as one of, they were the strongest sector, and then we saw a big pullback. And I believe we're in the same scenario. We have a much larger, or you could say we got a multi-year consolidation, or a even bigger one here. But I think we could see silver and gold, and miners, run up here until the stock market tops. And even after the stock market tops, for another few weeks or a couple of months, gold, silver, and miners can actually keep pushing higher. And to me, this start of this run in precious metals is actually one of the biggest warning signs telling me that I think the stock market and the economy is very close to finally putting in a top and rolling over. So, I'm excited for all of this stuff to happen. I do want a recession. I do want a market correction in stocks, because it's gonna create a whole new opportunity to profit from falling markets. It'll also eventually give us, reset the precious metals space after this run, for what I think will be one of the last opportunities to get in before we probably see $50 silver, we see, you know, $2700, $3500 gold. So, there's a lot of interesting price action coming. So, we are in a sweet spot for precious metals and miners to come to life right now, and it's pretty exciting. We're starting to see that.

Craig: Chris, let's wrap up our March projections here with the GDX. We'll use that ETF as a proxy for the mining sector. It's not the best. What, it's 13% weighted toward Newmont, which...

Chris: Which isn't doing so well.

Craig: ...which is lower than it was 20 years ago. So, I mean, that kind of skews, you know, this as a proxy, but nonetheless, hey, something caught my eye. You're zooming in on it right there. Look at that. One week ago, I think it was one week ago today, that Wednesday. Look at that island reversal down there. Little double bottom. And then, yeah, look at the one, the second one. Yeah. Look at that little island gap down, and then gap back up.

Chris: Yeah.

Craig: And we've been rolling ever since. Back above, or battling its 200-day moving average as we speak. Again, it's difficult not to chase, right, and especially when this thing is still under $30. What are some levels for people to watch if they wanna start employing some money to the sector?

Chris: Yeah. I think, like, depending on, it really comes down to depending on your strategy, right? Are you, like, a short-term momentum trader? Do you wanna, you know, swing trade it, and hopefully try and play something that lasts several months, and maybe takes us way, way higher? You know, right now we're seeing gold and silver miners, they were the worst assets on our list. They've had a very strong pop. We've seen some banking issues in the States. So, money's flocked to gold, it's flocked to miners, it's flocked to Bitcoin, as a different, alternate currency. So, right now, the miners are pushing up. Right now, this is an oversold bounce, a knee-jerk reaction bounce. If it can hold its ground and hold its value or keep pushing higher, I think it will kick into more of an uptrend. But, you know, there's ways, using cycle analysis, I think these are, there's some very good plays where we're long GDX in the market, from right down over here. We're seeing a very nice bounce. I think a pause or pullback here will actually be very, very powerful, because we really have a key pivot point through this chart. If we just draw a line through here, we've got a series of highs, we have a series of lows, we got pivot lows, we got price gaps, and really, just a lot of noise through here.

So, I wouldn't be surprised if we start to see this put in some type of pause, a consolidation, which, if it puts in a pause here, I mean, it'll be very...that'll work off some of this kind of short-term overbought, and then it's ready to rip up probably to $32, $34 in price. So, it's got a nice, sharp price action. It's the same with SILJ. I think we just need to let this bounce have a little bit of a breather. We're coming up into a resistance area. Let this first move... I call this a, this is a momentum move. We've got a previous high here. And on silver, the next high is actually still over here. But gold miners, if I just flip back and try not to make everybody too dizzy here, we've got a high right here, and we've got this high over here. And when you break two previous standout highs, that means the momentum is shifted. We just busted through two resistance area, and the first pause after that is usually the perfect opportunity to take things even higher. And if you're trading with cycles and support levels, for example, you know, we got long in GDX down near the lows. SILJ, we actually got long right down over here as well, which is already screaming higher. So, support levels, and cycles together, can give you an opportunity, you know, to try and get in on these, because I believe this is gonna be a very significant run in precious metals. And so we just need to see this short-term, you know, 10% bounce, little bit of a pause will re-energize it to take probably another 10% rally. So, I really like, the whole precious metals space is starting to come to life.

Craig: Well, [inaudible 00:21:51] I can tell you, this has been very helpful for me, that all of this makes great sense, and has given me the levels to watch. So I would assume everybody else watching has really greatly benefited from this too. As we wrap up, remind everybody what you do on a daily basis at The Technical Traders, in case they wanna join you there.

Chris: Yeah, if they go to The Technical Traders, you can copy all the trades that I do with my ETF strategy, and so, more or less, I just put on trades on more or less indexes and short-term, or bonds and currencies, which is a slower, it's for managing larger amounts of capital for consistent growth. I also focus on The Gold and Oil Guy, which are momentum trading signals for gold, silver, miners, Bitcoin, the VIX, the S&P 500, which is actually some of these signals that I was just talking to you. We're long GDX, gold, silver, silver miners, uranium, all these different plays. So, you know, we're back into that commodity space, where I think we're ready for a very big run. And so there's a couple different ways people can take advantage of what I do.

Craig: Great stuff, Chris. And I thank you for so freely sharing all of that with everybody here on these Sprott Money channels. And on our way out, again, just to remind everybody, it is now March. Gonna be a lot more content coming at you from Sprott Money over the course of this month, whether it's weekly articles from people like David Brady. I write something every week too, but we'll have the other podcast, the "Ask the Expert," the "Monthly Wrap-Up." if you wanna make sure you don't miss any of it, make sure you hit like or subscribe, sign up for the Sprott Money newsletter, so that you get notified every single time something is posted, and then you won't be behind the curve in getting caught up with all the information. So make sure you like or subscribe to Sprott Money on whatever channel you've been watching this, and you'll be sure you'll always be up-to-date. Chris, thanks so much for your time. This has been extremely valuable, and I look forward to talking to you next month, and see where we are.

Chris: Yeah. Sounds good. All right. Take care, Craig.

Craig: And from all of us at sprottmoney.com, thanks for watching. Again, keep your eye on this channel for some more content coming up in the next few days.

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About the Author

Our Ask The Expert interviewer Craig Hemke began his career in financial services in 1990 but retired in 2008 to focus on family and entrepreneurial opportunities.

Since 2010, he has been the editor and publisher of the TF Metals Report found at TFMetalsReport.com, an online community for precious metal investors.

*The author is not affiliated with, endorsed or sponsored by Sprott Money Ltd. The views and opinions expressed in this material are those of the author or guest speaker, are subject to change and may not necessarily reflect the opinions of Sprott Money Ltd. Sprott Money does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness and reliability of the information or any results from its use.


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