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Payrolls to Trigger the Breakout in Gold & Silver



Gold Price March 2024

Extreme overbought on the daily chart. Extreme bullish. Payrolls tomorrow. 

I believe Gold has topped out here and a sharp but short pullback to at least $2100 is in the cards tomorrow, with the Payrolls data being the catalyst. But I expect this to be a great buying opportunity for what happens next. If Gold holds $2080 and takes out $2200 next, move over Bitcoin. Gold could go wild to the upside.

By contrast, if we slice thru $2080, then it’s back to the drawing board. But this is a low probability proposition, imho.


Silver Price March 2024

Silver is not as overbought as Gold, but it too is looking toppy here, and as always, if Gold goes down sharply, Silver will likely fall even more on a percentage basis. $23.50 has been resistance on the way up and will likely act as support on the way down. I consider this a great buying opportunity, and if we break out to a new higher high above $24.80, Silver could go ballistic, short-term pullbacks aside.


GDX March 2024

The miners are highly correlated to Silver, so if Silver goes south, GDX likely falls even more. Initial support is at $28.60, where the first gap is below. The more important one is the second gap to $27.45. From there we should see a rally to $30.50, at least, to close the gap on the upside before a short-term pullback, then “CYA” time to the upside.

10-Year Yield (“10”)

10 year Price March 2024

The 10Y is oversold in the short-term and extreme oversold on the one-hour chart. It’s due a short-term rebound. Again, the Payrolls data should act as the catalyst for such a move. My target is up to as much as 4.30% at most, but then down it goes to ~3.50%, imho. You know what that means for the DXY and metals. This would support the big rally in the metals and miners I referred to above.


DXy Price March 2024

I believe the top is in for DXY and we have begun the move down to $92-$94 aided by lower bond yields concurrently. But it is extreme oversold on the one-hour and four-hour charts, signaling an imminent rebound tomorrow, alongside higher bond yields, to $103.40-70, then look out below to $94-$92. This obviously supports a big rally in the metals and miners next.

Conclusion on Precious Metals Prices

Of course, anything could happen with Payrolls data, but the metals, miners, 10Y, and DXY all signal a big move up in Gold and Silver. So, whatever result we get tomorrow, I still expect Payrolls to be the catalyst for the aforementioned moves: metals and miners sharply down initially, followed by a breakout to the upside in the metals and miners that is likely to be spectacular, imho. Get your shopping lists ready for the dip and what follows!


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About the Author

David Brady has worked for major banks and corporate multinationals in Europe and the U.S. He has close to thirty years of experience managing multi-billion dollar portfolios including foreign currency, cash, bonds, equities, and commodities. David is also a CFA charter holder since 2004.

Using his extensive experience, he developed his own process utilizing multiple tools such as fundamental analysis, inter-market analysis, positioning, Elliott Wave Theory, sentiment, classical technical analysis, and trends. This approach has improved his forecasting capability, especially when they all point in the same direction.

His track record in forecasting Gold and Silver prices since has made him one of the top analysts in the precious metals sector, widely followed on Twitter and a regular contributor to the Sprott Money Blog.

*The author is not affiliated with, endorsed or sponsored by Sprott Money Ltd. The views and opinions expressed in this material are those of the author or guest speaker, are subject to change and may not necessarily reflect the opinions of Sprott Money Ltd. Sprott Money does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness and reliability of the information or any results from its use.


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